Statistical Analysis Sunday 8th July

Market Rasen 2.45

10/11 Yensir, 13/8 Stylish Dancer,
5/1 Lily Of Leysbourne, 25/1 Dulwich Hill,
66/1 Just Heather.

Novice Hurdle over 2m 4f
Looks a 3 horse race

Racing Post Hurdle Ratings

Yensir 109 120 129
Stylish Dancer 63 82 85 108 108 108
Lily Of Leysbourne 69 88 101

YENSIR's numbers are well clear
But he carries 2 penalties for 2 wins
That is why he is not a shorter price
It's why STYLISH DANCER is shorter

STYLISH DANCER has her own problem
She is a 4yo filly who have an awful record

May to October
Novice Hurdles
Run over 2m 3f +
875 of these races

Fillies aged 4
Have a miserable 0-139 record
They have won races under 2m 3f
But at 19 furlongs or more all 139 lost
STYLISH DANCER has this problem
She has already had 6 hurdle runs
Beat Racing Post Rating of only 108
Running that figure 3 times now
Possibly that is as good as she is
She was sold for just 10 grand in February
Not a lot for a 4yo initially costing 150k
Given her profile and numbers
STYLISH DANCER does not appeal much

LILY OF LEYSBOURNE is a 5yo mare
Lightly raced I ran her profile
Felt she was interesting on some level
Feel she does have enough for a saver

YENSIR has the best numbers
His main rival fails a 0-139 statistic
Main problem is the price is a bit skinny

Selection

£8 Win Bet YENSIR 11/10

£2 Win Bet LILY OF LEYSBOURNE 5/1

AYR 5.10

6/4 Perfect Words, 100/30 Lexington Place,
6/1 Groundworker, 8/1 Fintry Flyer, Palavicini Run,
10/1 Red Forever, 14/1 Brendan, 25/1 Encoded,
50/1 King Of Castilla, Raise A Billion.

5F Handicap
Amateur riders

LEXINGTON PLACE

He is rated 63
He is the class horse in the race

Obviously as an 8 year old
His glory days are behind him
But whilst regression is taking place
He still has enough ability these days
As he drops in the weights and class

He was rated 89 at the end of 2015
He was rated 85 at the end of 2016
He was rated 73 at the end of 2017

Now he has dropped to a mark of 63
And he drops down into a Class 6 race
Only twice in his life
Has he run in a Class 6 race
Lexington Place won both those races
This is his individual profile

LEXINGTON PLACE
Running Aprl to August
With a run in the last 22 days
Running in Class 3 or lower
In fields of 11 or less
Lexington Place has a 11-30 record

He's had these conditions 30 times
All 11 of his career wins were in them

He's been running himself fit
Performing quite well in better races
The question in this lower class
Can he now deliver against inferior horses

Some of these look wrong
KING OF CASTILLA well beaten 6 days ago
Comes here with a string of low numbers
RAISE A BILLION has the same problems
ENCODED looks far too short of runs
Just 1 poor run since last November
PALAVICINI RUN is an exposed 5yo Mare
She has to face 177 days off the track
That should make her an unlikely winner

BRENDAN is a 5yo
After 12 career starts
His best Racing Post Rating is 48
That exposes him as a poor horse

FINTRY FLYER is a 4yo filly
15 races so far
Her best Racing Post Rating is 53
That exposes him as a poor horse
Her numbers suggest she's beatable

RED FOREVER is a 7yo
He has raced twice in 9 months
I'd question is that is enough
For an exposed 7yo like him
Especially with a 1-49 strike rate
And his only win being in 2014
His numbers are just too low

PERFECT WORDS 2/1 Fav

Like Lexington Place an 8yo
Won this race in 2017
Won this race in 2016
Now attempts the hat trick

His 2 previous wins in this
Were with shorter absences
But 20 days off this year
Shouldn't be a major problem

His Draw could be an issue
PERFECT WORDS is drawn 10 of 10

Since 2012
5f Ayr Handicaps
Under 12 runners
Show horses drawn 9 +
Have a 1-46 record in these races
I think it is a difficult draw
But not so tough he can't beat it
He is clearly one of the dangers
But his numbers show he is average

GROUNDWORKER has a chance
He is a Class 6 horse
Not as good as the topweights
But he gets weight to compensate
No real surprise if he were to win
A couple of interesting points

Fast ground could be an issue
GROUNDWORKER is 0-23 on faster then Good
His Jockey has a 0-12 career record
Young lad rides who has yet to ride a winner
This jockey has never finished 1-2-3 before
He has also never ridden in a 5f race either

GROUNDWORKER has a chance
But I prefer the classier types
PERFECT WORDS
LEXINGTON PLACE

Of the pair
LEXINGTON PLACE
looks a better bet e/w

Selection

LEXINGTON PLACE 5/2

Each Way

Limerick 2.05

Big field Maiden Hurdle
Several of these hard to read
If forced to suggest a bet

STORM RISING 5/2 each way
Looks quite a sensible bet
Just about has the best numbers
Scores heavily on fitness/experience

The theory or strategy is
If one or two horses are better
Which we can't know about now
It is unlikely that as many as 3 are

Ayr 4.05

13/8 Ventura Knight, 7/2 Nicholas T,
4/1 Fayez, 6/1 Windsor Beach.

8f Handicap
Ventura Knight is the only 3yo
One angle that ponts to him
Last time out Racing Post Ratings

103 Ventura Knight
94 Fayez
87 Windsor Beach
77 Nicholas T

Ventura Knight has a healthy edge
Has the most recent run as well
VENTURA KNIGHT should go well

Runs in the last 6 weeks

3 Fayez
2 Ventura Knight
2 Nicholas T
1 Windsor Beach

FAYEZ has most recent runs
Has the 2nd best numbers
Has the 2nd shortest absence

Shortlist

VENTURA KNIGHT
FAYEZ

Could bet them both
If you dont want a 3yo at 11/8
You could use Ventura Knight as a saver

£4.50 Ventura Knight 5/4 returns £10.13
£5.50 could then go on Fayez at 7/2

Thats roughly 6/4 Fayez
With money back on the favourite