AFL Fantasy Classic Steemit League Luck Ladder - Round 12

in #afl-fantasy6 years ago

We've all heard the phrase "Just the luck of the draw" thrown around in sporting parlance. It's often used to brush off a bit of bad luck, or even good fortune. But let's take a little bit of a closer look at what that means for us here in the Steemit @aflfantasy Classic League.

What I have below is a way to attribute a value to just how lucky (or unlucky) we all are over the course of the season.

So how does it work? At the end of each round, I rank everyone's score in order from highest to lowest, then each score is attributed a Win Value based on the number of teams you potentially could have beaten, for example if you top scored, you would beat 19 out of 19 possible opponents, so you would be credited with 1 win. If you bottom score, you'd beat 0 out of 19, so you would get 0 wins. If you have the 5th highest score, you'd beat 15 out of 19 opponents, so you'd get 15/19ths of a win (0.789). Once each team is allocated their Win Value, we can then compare the Win Value (or statistically probable estimated wins) to the Actual Wins. A score where Actual Wins > Expected Wins is a Lucky Score. A score where Actual Wins < Expected Wins is an Unlucky Score.

So how did we all fare in Week 12?

Lockout (@o07) top scored this week, so he gets 1 Expected Win, and the resident Ghost Ship, @Nzl19500 still hasn't bothered to field a valid team despite my personal call out a few weeks ago, so naturally they get 0 Expected Wins for a score of 0 - if anyone has any contact with him, please encourage him to at least field a team. The rest of us fall somewhere in between.

The graphic below, shows us how we all went comparatively this week (highlighted in yellow), as well as the overall Luck Ladder (highlighted in green)

Classic_LL

So as we can see, Lockout (@o07) is still leading the pack, with a differential of +1.948 more wins than expected, Lions4Life have moved into second spot with a differential of +1.842. At the other end of the scale, Steemit Huskies (@vicspics) remains the unluckiest, now sitting 3 wins below his expected total. This week actually highlights his lousy luck by putting up the 4th highest score of the round, but falling to Nige's Cats who put up the 3rd highest.

So that's the luck of the draw for Round 12. I'll update this each week through the course of the season so we can all keep track of how we're travelling...

If you find this even remotely interesting, leave me a comment. If there's anything I could explain better, let me know.

Cheers,
Sparkesy

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