Statistical Analysis Sunday June 3rd

LISTOWEL 2.10

2/1 Coral Beach, 5/2 Mintd, 4/1 Dom Carlos,
6/1 Riding The Storm, 7/1 Urban Light,
33/1 Arabic Channel, Chernish, Drombeg Duke,
50/1 Facethepuckout, Macken, Pyeongchang,
100/1 Tony's Rocket.

2yo Maiden

6f and 60 yards

Looks a 5 horse race
No obvious Draw advantage

CORAL BEACH an Aidan O'Brien favourite
Obviously demands the utmost respect
What bothers me about her
CORAL BEACH is a filly
She comes from a 5f races

When all her 4 main rivals
Are male horses
Who prepped over 6f last time
And as this is also an extended 6f
Do we really want a filly from 5f ?
Had a look at similar races

June
2yo Maidens over 6f
Filles from 5f races
More than 1 previous race
Running within the last 24 days
Produced a 4-51 record
None won on softer ground
Those on Good or softer just 1-24
The 4 winners that managed it
All won in fields of 8 or less runners
In fields of 9 or more like this race
These fillies returned a 0-28 record

Not the most sparkling of angles
But stops me betting Coral Beach

MINTD offers a lot

If I was having a bet which I'm not
It would be an each way double
And with my bet in the next preview

Selection

Listowel 2.10 - Mintd 2/1

Fakenham 2.20 - Fifty Shades 5/4 (2 Places)

Each Way Double

FAKENHAM 2.20

13/8 Fifty Shades, 9/4 Emmas Dilemma,
11/2 Amble Inn, West To Crossgales,
20/1 Cocker, Hier Encore, Volcan Surprise.

Novices' Handicap Hurdle over 2m 7f
Only 7 runners
We have 3 outsiders
None of the 3 rags appeal

FIFTY SHADES is on my radar

When he ran 6 days ago
I made him the days best bet

He went down in a photo
When odds on to win that photo

FIFTY SHADES had just won a Chase
He went from winning a 2m 4f Chase
To running in a 3m 1f Handicap Hurdle

I felt he had significant momentum
Felt his new trainer had improved him
And he looked absolutely chucked in

FIFTY SHADES duly went down in a photo
This is his chance of a recovery mission
I find it very hard to oppose him today

One of the reasons for this
Is his main market danger

EMMAS DILEMMA is a mare
She comes from a 2m race
That looks a very questionable task

Novice Handicap Hurdles
2m 7f and more
Any Class of race
Any time of year
Since 2004
There are 306 of these races

Horses from 2m hurdles
Have a predictably poor 3-122 record
None of these were mares (0-24)
None were aged 5 (0-49) or 6 (0-48)
EMMAS DILEMMA fails these angles

None had more than 11st 2lbs (0-61)
EMMAS DILEMMA has 12st 7lbs in this

EMMAS DILEMMA may yet win
But I find her profile unacceptable

WEST TO CROSSGALES has a chance
Could improve a 0-9 record over this trip
But career best Racing Post Rating of 92
Sets only a modest standard right now
AMBLE INN is a mare
Similar issues with her as well
9 runs with unimpressive numbers

FIFTY SHADES doesn't have much to beat
The second favourite has problems
Trying to do something not done in years
Despite a short price I like him again today

Selection

FIFTY SHADES 5/4

Win Bet

• WARNING "

2 Previews

Run at the same time

LISTOWELL 3.15
CHANTILLY 3.15

Both are previewed below

LISTOWEL 3.15

6/4 Iiex Excelsa, 5/1 Proud And Elated,
11/2 Simiyna, 7/1 Shemara, 8/1 Wishing Star,
12/1 Divine Approach, 14/1 Spanish Soprano,
16/1 Time Queen, Zoffanyia, 25/1 Fascinating Spirit,
33/1 Dolly Levi, Villa Maria, 50/1 Kanthaka,
100/1 Game Of Dreams, Myra Awnya,
150/1 Royal Alto.

Maiden race for fillies over 8f
Big field
Half of them are deadwood

LIEX EXCELSA sets the standard
She has the best numbers by some way
Understandable why she is favourite
Desite some strange form figures

I am not going to trust her
I can not be confident about stamina
LIEX EXCELSA has had 4 runs
All over 7 furlongs
This is a step up to a mile
Looking aher her pedigree
Decided I just could not trust her

There are a few options
But this draw stat needs considering

Listowel 8f races
Since 2011
Horses with under 10 runs
Drawn 11 or higher
Have a 0-45 record

Could a high draw
Be a problem for lighter raced fillies

SPANISH SOPRANO is resistible
As a seasonal debutant drawn 15

PROUD AND ELATED is drawn 13
She does have positives
Experience and a good run 9 days ago
But she has raced 7 times now
Her best Racing Post Rating is 70
Is that enough for a big field maiden ?
I am going to look elsewhere
Her numbers and draw look limiting
TIME QUEEN rejected first time out

Shortlist

SHEMARA
SIMIYNA

WISHING STAR could pop up
Beautifully bred horse
But her 3 career runs
Produce average numbers 74 65 64
That are also regressing a bit too
Could win but I prefer two others

SHEMARA has raced once
That was 9f on heavy at Gowran Park
No chance she stayed that day

Not entirely sure she will stay 8f here
Her sire has once raced 8f winners
So She does make the staking
Her trainer has said she is decent

SIMIYNA has raced twice
I made her a negative last time
She was going from 7f to 10f
She failed strong angle doing that
No surprised she was beaten then

The one concern about this preview
Although I am opposing Iiex Excelsa
As I don't believe she will stay a mile
Her numbers are still so far clear
That both my shortlisted horses
Have to show plenty of improvement
Staking the race this way

Selection

£4 Each Way SIMIYNA 7/1

£1 Win Bet SHEMARA 8/1

£1 Win Bet WISHING STAR 9/1

CHANTILY 3.15

3/1 Olmedo, 4/1 Study Of Man, 5/1 Key Victory,
5/1 Rostropovich, 7/1 Hey Gaman, 10/1 Dice Roll,
12/1 Naturally High, 16/1 Intellogent, 20/1 Hunting Horn,
33/1 Flag Of Honour, Not Mine, 33/1 Patascoy,
33/1 Stable Genius, 66/1 Kenya, 66/1 Louis D'Or,
100/1 Beat Generation.

The Prix du Jockey Club
The French Derby over 10f

18 Runners this year
Hopeful rather than confident

OLMEDO sets the standard
We backed him in the French Guineas
Stall drawn 1 may not be an advantage

Winning draws of past winners
1 7 13 6 10 16 10 20 4 4 5 7 13 10 4 11

Last years winner did win drawn 1
That was in a smaller field though
And none of the previous 14 renewals
Went to a horse drawn in stalls 1-2-3
That does worry me in a huge field

OLMEDO has to get the distance as well
This is over 2f further than he's been
Not a convincing pedigree really
Being held up to stay the trip drawn 1
Could lead to problematic traffic issues
He could win but may need to be lucky
And his advantage numerically is small

KEY VICTORY has raced once this year
All of his rivals have had more runs
Past winners runs that season
2 2 2 2 4 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 3 2 3 3 2 2 3
The last to win with 1 run that season
Was 20 years ago way back in 1997
KEY VICTORY is rejected on this angle

KEY OF VICTORY only has 2 runs
Past winners had the following career starts
6 6 3 7 4 11 2 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 5 3 5 6 4 3 5 6 3
13 of the last 15 winners had 4 or more runs
The 2011 winner did have only 2 career runs
But he had 2 that season and he does not
On this ground in this field I want more runs
BEAT GENERATION the same problem

Racing Post Ratings

Past winners had the following numbers
Coming into the race before they won this

111 111 110 112 114 112 100 121 114 109 110
The closer to a 110 + Racing Post Rating
The more like previous winners you are

I want a rating of at least 107
HUNTING HORN has not done that
NATURALLY SHY also falls short
STABLE GENIUS is rejected as well
LOUIS D'OR does not have the numbers
NOT MINE has not matched the standard
FLAG OF HONOUR is impossible to like
KENYA ran too badly last time out
PATASCOY doesn't look good enough

DICE ROLL was 3rd in the French Guineas
I opposed him in that race
Wasn't convinced about his stamina
His sires pattern winners were over shorter
To be fair to him he stayed & ran a close 3rd
This is a lot further than a mile though
Must be every chance he doesn't get home
Especially in a much bigger field
DICE ROLL has Stall 18 of 18 as well
That surely can not be a positive draw

INTELLOGENT has 4 runs
Won last time may be improving
No reason to not shortlist him
No real reason to select him either

HEY GAMAN has no obvious flaws
Second in the French Guineas
Nothing wrong with profile or draw
Not really a trainer I see as proven
No reason to not shortlist him
No real reason to select him either

Shortlist

ROSTROPOVICH won the Dee Stakes
He's just done enough on the numbers
Ryan Moore's choice of O'Briens runners
He has to be on any shortlist
When so many main rivals have flaws

STUDY OF MAN has just 3 runs
I'd have liked a bit more experience
He is far sexier of the pair
Will probably be the better horse as well
He was 16/1 ante post for the Epsom Derby
Connections came here over 10 furlongs
If he had 4 runs then automatic selection
But just 3 runs is a harder case to make
New Bay won in 2015 with 3 career runs
STUDY OF MAN does match his numbers
Both have/had Racing Post Ratings of 110

ROSTROPOVICH has 7 runs
STUDY OF MAN has 3 runs

Past winners had the following runs
6 6 3 7 4 11 2 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 5 3 5 6 4 3 5 6 3

STUDY OF MAN looks a better horse
But will his inexperience get him beat
Tough one but both have to be backed
In the end went with hope and class

Selection

£8 Win Bet STUDY OF MAN 4/1

£2 Win Bet ROSTROPOVICH 5/1

FAKENHAM 3.25

7/4 Artful Artist, 5/2 Haafapiece,
9/2 Yensir, 5/1 Guiding Stars, 14/1 Just For Tara,
20/1 Eolian, 25/1 Talk Of Monty, 50/1 Topalova,
100/1 Hamelin Pool.

2m Maiden Hurdle

This is interesting
But requires a guess

ARTFUL ARTIST is a 9 year old
He has an absence of 142 days

MAIDEN HURDLES

Since 1998
Any Distance
Any Time of year

3485 of these races

Horses aged 9
Have a 30-1002 record
Thats a poor strike rate of 2.99%
About what I would expect

Horses aged 9
Absent more than 86 days
Have a 1-307 record

ARTFUL ARTIST fails this 1-307 record
Obviously very hard for any 9yo
To win a Maiden hurdle with an absence

The only winner was in 2006
That was Kelnik Glory at Worcester
Who had been point to pointing
He won a 3m hurdle if we ignore that

If we take Maiden Hurdles under 3 miles
And this is only a 2 mile race
9 Year olds absent more than 87 days
Return a dismal 0-271 record
ARTFUL ARTIST fails this 0-271 record

I have to oppose him
Obviously only a few were fancied
Only 11 of the 271 losers started under 7/1
None started under 7/4 either

Thats the problem here
Often with Grandioso angles
Nought from Several Hundred Stats
You find only a few genuine rivals
And if ARTFUL ARTIST goes and wins
That will be the reason for it

HAAFAPIECE was an option
But he Pulled up 20 days ago
That wasn't really his fault
He was Bullied out of the race
By a couple of bigger horses
He may bounce back from that
But not a horse I wanted to trust

YENSIR has 1 hurdle run
He has a chance
GUILDING STARS comes out well
No hurdle form at all from bumpers
But I can match him to winners

So it will require a guess

Obviously with 8 runners
And a favourite failing a 0-271 stat
Each Way is a serious option

The winner should in my view
Be the 2nd 3rd or 4th favourites
But no sensible way to choose

But instead playing it this way

£6 Win Bet GUILDING STARS 4/1

£2 Win Bet YENSIR 7/2

£2 Win Bet HAAFAPIECE 7/2