Bitcoin Course - Analysis. Growth is coming after the accumulation pattern

in #analysis6 years ago

I apologize for the holiday pause, but my excuse is the fact that there was nothing dramatic in the bitcoin market. Nothing dramatic only if you are not excited by every green or red candle that appear randomly on otherwise idle market. In the hour chart these movements are often called Bart’s head. Why? Well, remember the look of Bart Simpson’s head.

Since the previous analysis, the price has fallen to the lowest of 5749 USD (Bitstamp), since then it has been slightly growing. It seems as if it was the beginning of the reflection and the price started its journey to heights promising a great appreciation. Or maybe not. If there is another reflection, after such a long fall, then I would expect at least a double bottom.

No big growth is coming yet

After the long-term fall, for reflection it is necessary to see an accumulation pattern, usually consisting of two or three valleys. And we have only one minimum here. It also shows from the graph that the last fall has broken the several-times-confirmed support, and the price of BTC is still below it. There is also a risk that support will change into resistance and after some days of slow approaching to the resistance, someone will “dump” it and that will start another wave of sales.

Current growth is not supported by rising volumes. On the daily chart, volume is falling slowly. It is possible for the price to rise slightly to 7000 USD, but without the proper volume it will not exceed this border... rising volumes can then be expected on the way down.



In the coming days I expect a modest growth to 7000 USD and somewhere on this way a sharp change of trend and falling down; at best, a reflection can be at 5750 USD. This could be the beginning of further growth. But I’m afraid that if there are new sales, we can look much lower.

I drew an alternative option by gray color. In the case that support-resistance wouldn’t play so big role as initially expected. Then you can expect a growth to the upper trendline and there it will reflect. The target price would be around 8000 USD. Trading of this week will be decisive, starting by Monday. The alternative version is based on analyzes of some traders at TradingView.

Sentiment in the market, short and long positions

On Bitfinex – 35760 BTC in long (from previous 28500) and 22126 BTC in short (from 27000).
Top traders at OKEX vote for short – 45:54. By volume it is balanced – 19:18.

Recommendation: We cannot believe in a growth yet. A good moment to sell is a falling volume and movement for one or two day sideways. Do not buy yet. Once the support-resistance is exceeded, you can purchase to speculate for growing to 8000 USD.



Disclaimer: These articles cannot be considered as an investment advice, and it is still a good idea to make speculation on bitcoin stock exchanges only with funds you can afford to lose. The high-profit potential is balanced with a significant risk of losing, especially here on the crypto markets.

Česky: https://btctip.cz/kurz-bitcoinu-analyza-rust-az-po-dokonceni-akumulace/

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Since when is used the Bart Simpson’s pattern, do you know?

It was years ago I saw the Bart Simpson's pattern for the first time, but I have no idea who was the first who put Bart into technical analysis. I think it is definitely older than the Bitcoin itself, because the Simpsons got famous much earlier. ;)

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