10/13 ANDY HOFFMAN (CryptoGoldCentral.com): 2019 – Year of the Crypto ????
Since I’ll be very busy tomorrow; not to mention, preparing for my 1-on-1 podcast with Ran Neuner of CNBC Tuesday morning, I wanted to post a few words this evening. That said, if anything BIG happens overnight, you can bet I’ll have something to say about it!
Today, I was thinking, yet again, of how fast memes change in the “double dog years” pace of cryptocurrency development. Specifically, how many times this year alone! The way I see it, 2013 was a Bitcoin coming out party – even if, at its high, it barely reached a $10 billion market cap. That said, the parabolic rise unquestionably put it on the map – which unfortunately, was immediately tainted by the Mt Gox collapse of early 2014. Which, in turn, yielded a price purgatory that lasted 18 months; but importantly, enabled the Bitcoin network to grow “below the radar” – and thus, prove it could survive even a potential extinction event like Mt Gox.
In 2016, when the consolidation finally ended, the top story was the July halving – yielding price appreciation from $400 in January to $1,000 at year-end. And then came 2017 – which unquestionably, was the craziest “Bitcoin Roller Coaster” year of all. On the way from $1,000 to $20,000, NUMEROUS potential extinction events were endured…at least, it felt that way when Roger Ver was trying to split the Bitcoin network, BCash to destroy it, and the Chinese government to ban it. Either way, the chaos occurred within the context of a BULL MARKET – that forgave all sins, lifted all boats, and fostered the creation of hundreds of dotcom-like altcoins.
When 2018 rolled around, the traditional signs of a potentially violent market turnaround were glaring – but, as always, no one saw them. Such as, exploding prices, wildly bullish sentiment, and the belief crypto was about to take over the world. Alas, reality set in – despite the fact that in my view, crypto WILL eventually become a dominant…if not THE dominant…financial asset class. Thus, the “all news is good news” meme of 2017 morphed into “all news is bad news” – with an equally obvious lack of understanding by the vast majority of observers.
To that end, I’d characterize the first half of 2018 as dominated by the altcoin bust; the Mt Gox Trustee; and generally speaking, deflation of the bubble-like surge that HAD to eventually happen. This, followed by an intense focus on Bitcoin ETFs in the third quarter; and now, care of Tether, the shady business practices of exchanges like Bitfinex. Which, I might add, could end with a whimper if Bitfinex finds itself a new banking partner – or a bang if it the Tether controversy worsens.
Either way, Bitcoin’s fundamentals will be unchanged – as it didn’t need ETFs to grow; or Tether, futures, or ANY exchange or Wall Street-created derivative product. If the worst case scenario occurs, the ultimate test will be Bitcoin’s “Hoffman Line,” of a $100 billion market cap – particularly as we approach the launch of dozens of new Crypto Hedge Funds in January 2019, just as initial hype about the May 2020 halving starts to creep into the crypto community.
That said, I have no idea what meme, or memes, will characterize 2019. It’s difficult enough – read, impossible – to predict financial markets; and none have ever been as fast-moving or volatile as cryptocurrency. As for me, I’ll stick to HODLing Bitcoin on a Trezor – in my view, the best investment opportunity, even after having risen this much, of our lifetimes!