12/03 ANDY HOFFMAN (CryptoGoldCentral.com): Bitcoin's Hash Rate Limbo
This weekend, for the first time since launching CGC 16 months ago, I didn’t publish anything. The way I see it, I’ve said all there is to say at this juncture, and then some. The fact is, sector sentiment is at lows not seen since Mt Gox – as clearly, the SV attack could not have been timed more opportunely. Thus, despite the fact that SV has not a chance of usurping Bitcoin, it’s presence has cast a pall over the entire crypto space.
The uncertainty of how much Bitcoin Faketoshi actually holds is a source of great consternation to the crypto community, irrespective of the fact that, like the Mt Gox Trustee, it can only, at worst, cause short-term price weakness. And perhaps not even that - if support around $4,000 holds, as global investors focus on Bitcoin’s core value proposition.
https://twitter.com/Andy_Hoffman_CG/status/1068493606984404992
That said, SV’s market cap, relative to BCash ABC, is at essentially an all-time high of nearly 60% - whilst its hash rate is essentially the same as ABC’s. So, as long as the threat of SV usurping BCash remains – which in my view, grows stronger each day – the (comically misguided) fear it could challenge Bitcoin will strengthen, too; just as the comically misguided fear last year, that the original BCash would do the same. And before it, Bitcoin Unlimited, Bitcoin XT, and others.
https://twitter.com/Andy_Hoffman_CG/status/1068640915223326720
Last week, I wrote of how Bitcoin’s price and hash rate are tied at the hip – and thus, it’s no coincidence the Bitcoin price and hash fell by nearly identical amounts, of nearly 50%, during November.
As I write, both remain near those lows – presumably, due to some of Bitcoin’s SHA256 hash being “recruited” for the BCash “Hash Wars.” So, until there’s some positive upward movement in Bitcoin’s hash rate, I’d expect the price to remain in “limbo” – and potentially lower, under the worst case, highly unlikely scenario that SV grows more powerful, taking out ABC and igniting a new level of Bitcoin FUD.
https://twitter.com/Andy_Hoffman_CG/status/1069205514637082625
These are the times when one needs to decide how strong their convictions are AND what they are willing to risk financially. I believe as strongly as ever in Bitcoin’s future, but there is unquestionably near-term price uncertainty due to SV. Bitcoin may be the greatest technology advancement of our lifetimes – however, that doesn’t change the fact that it is not a “cause.” No, before all it’s a financial investment, with strong odds of success, but near-term hurdles to be crossed – like the Hash Rate Limbo it’s mired in today.
https://twitter.com/Andy_Hoffman_CG/status/1069225618833690624