Even Worse Than iPhone 8": JPM Warns Of Tumbling iPhone X Orders, Slashes Production Forecast By 50%
Content adapted from this Zerohedge.com article : Source
by Tyler Durden
"Has the Apple gone sour?"
That's what JPM's tech/semi analyst Narci Chang wants to know after looking at recent iPhone X orders where he sees "more signs of weakening" and is revising his forecast for iPhone production to plunge by 50% Q/Q, "even larger than the decline of the iPhone 8/8+."
"Our EMS forecast for total iPhone is now 55mn in 1Q (vs 60mn before), and iPhone X is now 20mn in 1Q (vs 30mn before)." - JPM
Unfortunately for AAPL fans, this is not some year-end calendar quirk, but instead JPM believes the "weakness will continue in 1H18 as high-end smartphones are clearly hitting a plateau this year."
Noting that JPM downgraded the Apple Supply Chain in mid-September given that: 1) iPhone X expectations are largely priced in, and 2) sustained growth into the 2018 iPhone cycle is unlikely, given limited design changes in the next cycle (click for podcast and note), Chang warns that "now we believe the peak has arrived even earlier than our expectations."
Chang also writes that as a result of the steep plunge in orders, he expects upstream component build for iPhone X to stop in May, while new iPhone component build may start earlier in late-June as Tim Cook hopes the new generation of iPhones will salvage what is clearly becoming an extremely saturated industry.
Instead of taking any action on AAPL now - although it is likely imminent - JPM said it was re-adjusting its supply chain view as follows:
Despite robust revenue from iPhone X suppliers in 4Q, demand has gone sour quickly. Along with this note, we have lowered our 1Q forecasts for Win Semi (OW), Merry (OW), Largan (N), Hon Hai (N), and AAC (OW), and cut full-year forecasts/lowered price targets for LGI (N), and downgraded Sony to N. We still like suppliers with long-term content growth potential, but would like to caution 1H18 weakness and saturated growth for high-end iPhones.
- For Win Semi, we are still highly convinced all three new models in 2H18 will have 3D sensing while a rear-end 3D sensing module in 2019 could provide upside potential.
- For Merry, we forecast that earnings exposure from iPhone is <5% anyways, while the company has 6% dividend yield support here.
- Largan, on the other hand, may face intensified competition, and we also lowered the forecast to factor in that 6.05" LCD phone will NOT have dual camera this year, contrary to market expectations.
- On AAC, we believe the new verticals and dollar content growth, and the China smartphone exposure, are able to help the company maintain 20%+ earnings growth this year. For Hon Hai, we expect further earnings downgrades to weigh on the share price.
And while this market has long ago stopped responding to news, the JPM announcement was enough to knock the stock modestly of its day highs, even if it is still green for the day despite what - if JPM is right - is an indication of a collapse in iPhone X demand.
I adore all Apple devices
It's really at the top of the tender
If you own an iPhone made by Apple, you're lucky, because your phone offers features and features that are not found in Android and other smart phones.
1 - iPhone applications top quality and better: When it comes to the development of a new application for smart phones, developers give priority to the store "AbStore", in addition to Apple applications are more effective and proficient from Android applications, for example. The company applies tough testing standards before deploying any application to its store.
3 - Simplicity and ease of work: iPhone phones allow you the simplicity and ease of control in many things, where the user simply pull the top menu to do a search and access to things that may be difficult and sometimes difficult access to other devices.
4 - iPhone is more secure: Many observers consider that the system "iOS" more secure than the system "Android". In a report issued in 2015, it was found that 97 percent of malware targeted Android devices, while a tiny 0.7 percent was targeted at iPhone phones.
5 - Apple is adopting the new technology faster: Apple no longer sells any phone does not have the feature "Touch ID" after only 3 years to develop this new technology in the 5S in 2013, which shows that the company adopts technology New in a quick way. Touch ID allows users to unlock their phone with a fingerprint.
6 - works perfectly with all devices: iPhone phone works smoothly with all devices and with different operating systems, such as the iPad and iPod Touch, where, for example, the iPad to receive a call (instead of the iPhone) or to release a text message , When your iPhone is on the same Wi-Fi network.
7 - Cable for Lightning: Studies have found on the smart phone cables that the cable for iPhone is among the strongest and best cables, which includes protection and effectiveness in performance. Lightning also features a two-sided "USB" header that can be connected to a negative or positive terminal, and is capable of charging iPhones and iPads.
These are just some of the advantages
I did not remember everyone thanks sir for the valuable participation. @zer0hedge
When the iPhone first came out it was revolutionary - a thing of greatness, all the power and gadgets you could dream of - remember it was a few years ago - since then they have improved it, made it bigger, smaller, faster, slower, on your arm ( watch) and at one stage in a pair of glasses. The bubble has burst. They have reached the end of the markets desire to own one unless a person is willing to pay a fortune for them, they have in effect out priced themselves and this has allowed other companies to catch up and over take them offering the same product, sometimes better but at a more resonable price.
I think people buy iPhone for its variety and awesome changes.
I appreciate your comments
AAPL has been hitting the news with the promise that it will bring 55bln$ in America. Also with the new tax plan, they are expected to pay less ( they were paying 10% for all I know) till now. They made all-time highs of course. Almost every big tech company made an all time-high.
This is very usual for a bull market ! A bull market ignores bad news and overreacts to good news.This is one of the strongest bull runs ever, so not very surprised.
Of course the other side of the coin reads that AAPL is the biggest company in the world and it will be enough investors to start unloading some AAPL and we might see a mini-correction in the markets.
I think what Apple is saying,they will actually do that.
Large advertising campaigns in the month of November last year, quick entry into the market made the selling x iPhone bur Apple's high price policy, sales x iPhone almost caused a crash.Even after 2018 before they go on sale X Apple iPhone could sell 30 million claimed. But apparently that wasn't the case.
In order to achieve better sales figures this year, Apple, cheaper iPhone models to come out with planning. the model X is similar to the iPhone, but the 6.1-inch LCD screen with a larger panel that will come with it is said. Çıkacak olan LCD panelli bu modelin 600-700 dolar civarında olacağı söylentiler arasında.
With new products coming to the level of sales required will be re-opened.The volume of the company adopted by a very large and popular brand in the market @zer0hedge
I read this morning yesterday. Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo explained. Kuo said that he did; He said that sales would be discontinued this summer, claiming that iPhone X is not demanding and that orders are falling. According to Kuo, Apple had previously halted the production of the iPhone 5C model, which indicated that sales were not going well.
Apple's very high pricing policy caused the iPhone X to crash.
Apple plans to face up to cheaper iPhone models this year to reach better sales figures. It is similar to the iPhone X, but is said to come with a bigger panel with a 6.1-inch LCD screen. Among the rumors that the LCD panel will be out for around $ 600-700. @zer0hedge
I knew that iPhone x is demanding across the countries but why did they claim it ?
This is an opportunity to go long at 185 calls for March; this negative news on Apple X sales is a false narrative and is a set up for a massive short squeeze. Just wait and see when Apple reports its 4th quarter earnings. The reason for a quarter of quarter slash of 50% is simply because the the smashing record of 4th quarter iPhone X sales.
Perhaps a April 200 call would do perhaps even better.
Too much negative news coming from too much fake news and when this happens with this company, then the squeeze is in!!
They sold 29 million units in the 4th quarter; more than the rest combined...think about it!! ($29 million)
typo 29 million not billion
Opps sorry .
Please help vote me
Please help vote me
It's a special phone to me many things
IPhone X is a smart phone designed, developed and marketed by Apple, announced by Apple CEO Tim Cook in Cupertino, California on September 12, 2017, along with the announcement of the iPhone 8 and iPhone Plus. It was launched on 3 November
I love this kind very much. @zer0hedge
I love all Apple hardware
It's amazing especially in
Protection
@zer0hedge...bro Apple has screwed us for years. Both Apple and Amazon share an ugly truth and that is their strong ties to America's government has in many ways allowed them to create a persona or facade that far outshines reality. This allows each company in its own way to exploit us while masking the huge amount of income they pluck from our government on all levels. The article below explores how each of these companies feed at the tit of our government sucking in a slew of American tax dollars while displaying tactics that harm. Thank you for sharing with us....
If the production of the iPhone X is stopped, the production of a model for the first time after the iPhone 5C, which Apple put on the market in 2014, will be halted only one generation later. Kuo, a very credible past to publicize Apple's plans, is the main reason why iPhoneX has not attracted much attention in China. The big screens in China are in great demand, and according to Chinese consumers, the black polarized 'notch' on the top front of the iPhone X shrinks unnecessarily. Especially the cheaper iPhone 8 Plus features are a bit better than the X model.
That's why I chose the iphone 8 plus. That gentleman's really bad. It has everything in it, but it breaks my pleasure. I hope the new screen will not be gentle and the screen will grow bigger. As you wrote, the screen of iPhone x is bigger and worse than the iPhone 8 plus:)))) @zer0hedge
Apple's slowing down old phones caused it to lose prestige. For this reason, purchases of Apple also declined. @zer0hedge
May be u r right.