Play-Off 1 Bet | Charleroi vs Club Brugge
It has been over 2 months since I posted a pre-game bet on Steemit. My plan from the start with my Nitrogensports account was to post 100% of the bets place there exactly as I took them and track the results. I was going to start using my account again for some bets on the World Cup, but there is one bet I really wanted to take some extra on with my Bitcoin this week...
Charleroi vs Club Brugge
I really like this spot where the top team needs the win away against one on the weaker teams in Play-Off 1. There has been a lot of talk about the video ref and how Club Brugge was disavantaged against Anderlecht and I really expect Club Brugge to play this entire match with 200% focus and intensity. They have been the best team over the entire season and would be the only deserved champion. I do not expect them to give it away against charleroi who they won from at home with a 6-0 score. Charleroi is a bit overrated now because they took 2 wins against AA Gent who had horrible performances themselves. The scenario of Club Brugge cracking under pressure is certainly possible, but it is overly calculated into the price to me and worth the risk. I would set the odds more around 1.780 on the away win and would not be surprised to see the market close around that number.
Belgian Play-Off 1 Bet
0.010 BTC Club Brugge -0.5 @ 1.994
| Date | BTC | Sport | Bet | Odds | Result | Betslip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05/2018 | 0.010 | BEL1 | Club Brugge -0.5 | 1.994 | Pending | [Link] |
May Nitrogensports Record
0 Bets | 0W-0L-0P | 0.000 BTC Staked | +0.00000 BTC Profit | +0.00% ROI
|
Total BTC Bankroll
0.97641900 BTC (-2.36%) |
Nitrogensports BTC Balance
0.176419000 BTC (-11.8%) |
Nitrogensports (affiliate link)
Nitrogensports (normal link)
Results History
| Month | Bets | Won | Lost | Push | Staked | Profit BTC | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2018 | 12 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 0.091 | -0.036293 | -39.88% |
| Jan 2018 | 21 | 10 | 10 | 1 | 0.147 | +0.005800 | +3.95% |
| Dec 2017 | 19 | 9 | 8 | 2 | 0.148 | +0.010422 | +7.04% |
| Nov 2017 | 21 | 11 | 10 | 0 | 0.210 | -0.008030 | -3.82% |
| Oct 2017 | 21 | 10 | 10 | 1 | 0.210 | +0.003080 | +1.46% |
| Sep 2017 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0.090 | +0.001440 | +1.6.% |
| Total | 103 | 47 | 50 | 6 | 0.896 | -0.023581 | -2.63% |
Some time ago, you wrote how the rules of the Jupiler League can demotivate the lead team and at the same time motivate the clubs that saw no chance of winning the title before the points were cut.
It looks like that's been happening in the case of Club Brugge, their form tanked.
Yes it certainly has something to do with it. They do have the quality and chareroi should be the perfect match to get over it. The matches against direct opponents are a different case because there are virtually 6 points on the table in those where they have everything to lose while the opponent can only win.
It is really nice to see that you are keeping such detailed records. It is really vital for a sports bettor.
I am staying away from the PO games. In PO2 it is to unpredictable and in PO1 I would be betting with the heart, which is never a good idea.
I don't see Club winning at Charleroi but your analysis is correct. I just think that they will be too stressed. They do start to feel the pressure and it will become immense!
A fan of Club Brugge complained yesterday that every team they have to face, plays their best games of the season against them. And also the goalkeeper discussion with get a new chapter. The first goal against Anderlecht, off side or not, may never have been netted!
Good luck with the bet!
I have always kept close stats on everything and it's the most normal thing to me. Very few people do it because it most of the time is very confronting since it's actually quite hard to crush this game. Being honest to yourself and realise with stats keeping when something is not good enough is really the key to improvement and long term profit since it avoids you from getting lost in denial and is a constant push to do better.
The Goalkeeper indeed is an issue for Club Brugge. What I really am looking at is the closing price of this match. As long as it is lower compared to what I took it should be good, if it ends up even higher I will probably need some luck.
Diaby is also doubtfull. So they are dropping like flies.
Since I am involved in the betting scene, I did the same. Keeping records, creating stats, finding my leaks and so on. But I also know my weak spot and this is discipline to my bankroll management!
Always step into the same pitfall! Silly old me :)
Closing Line is -0.5 @ 1.813 on Pinnacle
So far so good :)
Nice call. I know jack squat about soccer but I'm assuming 3-1 is a good lead.
Yes it was a winner and over the entire match a great bet I would take any day of the week.