BTC - 10 Jan

I'm back from vacation. (Did you miss me?) Time to catch up the last few days and to look ahead a few more.

BTC is growing increasingly comfortable with climbing in price. The pattern is looking more and more like post-capitulation growth.

• https://mentormarket.io/bitbrain/to-capitulate-or-not-to-capitulate-that-is-the-question-part-2-the-answer/
• https://mentormarket.io/bitbrain/to-capitulate-or-not-to-capitulate-that-is-the-question-part-2b-the-rest-of-the-answer/

My suggestion is still to remain wary of the possibility of a Dead Cat Bounce, though I don't see BTC dropping below $3000 even if that does happen. I'll do a longer-term prediction post soon.

Looking at the charts today we see a downwards correction after some rapid growth. The growth phase occurred after a converging triangle which took about 10 days to form and jumped several short-term Fib levels. It was thus unlikely that it could sustained the level it reached and a retraction became a strong possibility.

That retraction has now occurred. BTC has found support at the 0.786 retracement level of $3760 and has just bounced off it. The level is fairly well established and I do not expect it to be breached.

Looking a little broader, we can see that the general trend of BTC for more than a month now has been in the direction of the large green trendline as indicated below. At this stage there is no reason to believe that this will not continue in the medium-term.

Based on a generally positive trend, the recent bounce off $3760 and the short-term Fib levels, I foresee the scenario below: BTC rising to the 0.618 Fib level at $3880 and remaining there for a few days.

Bit Brain's confidence of this happening: 65%.

Looking further ahead, I believe that the next Fib level will be tested and that BTC will then settle at the next higher Fib level. That would be the 0.5 Fib level at a price of around $3935.

Bit Brain's confidence of this happening: 35% - rising to 60% if the first scenario takes place as predicted.

Yours in crypto

Bit Brain

All charts made by Bit Brain with TradingView

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