There's been a lot of buzz about Consensus lately and the supposed bullish implications for Bitcoin and altcoins. Tom Lee from Fundstrat has been quoted in numerous sources over the past week and this chart has been doing the rounds since yesterday:

I pulled that from Reddit as I can't find the original source, but it appears to be a collaborative effort between Fundstrat and Coindesk using Bloomberg price data.

The link seems pretty solid at first glance, but what leapt out at me immediately was the "~" approx. qualifiers preceding the periods sampled ... is it just me or is that not a very scientific approach?

I'm also aware that last year BTCUSD sold off hard once the event was over. As such, I want to take a look specifically at what happens in the 3 days prior to the event, during the conference and immediately afterwards, as well as the net change for the entire 9 day window.

Note that the 2015 conference was only a 1 day event, but I have still used a 9 day window to ensure an "apples with apples" comparison against future conferences. As such, "During the event" for 2015 uses data from the 9th, 10th and 11th of September.

3 Days Prior

2015: +3.87%
2016: +0.13%
2017: +4.36%

Average: 2.78%

During the event

2015: -1.47%
2016: -0.82%
2017: 18.17%

Average: 5.29%

After the event

2015: -4.33%
2016: +2.91%
2017: -17.3%

Average: -6.24%

Net change

2015: -2.07%
2016: +2.15%
2017: +1.97%

Average: 0.73%

Observations

• Looking at the three day period proceeding conferences, Bitcoin has finished higher each year. The average gain was 2.78%.

• In the 3 day period covering conferences, Bitcoin has only finished higher once. The substantial gain during the 2017 event distorts the average for these periods out to +5.29%

• In the 3 days following a conference, Bitcoin once again only finished higher on one occasion. Once again we have a large outlying (though modal) result in 2017 which gives a distorted average of -6.27%

• In the 9 days before, during and after a Consensus conference, Bitcoin has finished higher on 2 out of three occasions. The average gain was 0.73%.

• Data set is too small to draw any meaningful conclusions

Conclusion

The purported short term bullish correlation between the annual Consensus conference and the price of Bitcoin seems tenuous at best. Even if we ignore the extremely limited data set and assume the data is reliable, an average gain of 0.73% over the 9 day period is insignificant when compared to BTCUSD's average 9 day ATR. Though there is quite obviously a longer term correlation; in the context of a multi-year bull market, Tom Lee and Fundstrat's attempt to imply causality is absurd, if not intentionally deceptive.