What the FUD? Why I think the Bitcoin Price Keeps Going Down

Hey Steemians

Since the last bull run ended in January of this year we've seen Bitcoin take tumble after tumble. I'm pretty well vested in the market so naturally, I have a keen interest in the price and lost a considerable amount of money, not just in potential upside but in actual capital that I've put into the market.

When you're this exposed you really have no choice but to HODL, and hope for a run! I have reduced my buying average over the past few months but its nowhere near close enough for me to at least break even until we reach at least 10k BTC

For those who are bullish on the market, It would be a great time to buy in now I'm sure when you consider the current price vs what the all-time high was on the last run and if we do get another run like it you would walk away with handsome profits.

Image source: Cointelegraph

ICO bubble popped

Apart from general speculation, BTC was driven up by the great ICO boom of 2017, it was all the rage, everyone wanted to create a token on the Ethereum network and needed either BTC or ETH to do so. There was a buying frenzy with promises of crazy mooning from every shitcoin project to pop up during that time.

For more on this check the post I did 7 months ago - Why ICO's Will Result In the Bubble Bursting

Shorting cryptocurrency

If you look at the date the first futures contracts were released by CME you'll notice an immediate reduction in the price of the currency. Futures contracts allow investors to hedge bets and trade on the price of BTC instead of actually having to buy BTC and thus taking a lot of institutional money out of the ecosystem that could have been used to offer greater resistance levels.

It also encourages market manipulation if you know your futures contracts are about to expire you could make massive purchases with institutional money to prop up the market and then sell to reduce and meet your futures price and double up on profits

Hard forking

While ICOs are one way to get money out of the BTC pool another is simply hard forking and for all the noble reasons they give us for forks it really is only about money. Creating these forks are hugely profitable for those in the know as they get new allocations and then sell them off and make profit on a seemingly nothing coin based on HF hype.

General FUD

Go to YouTube and check out any big channel in crypto and go into the comments, check out reddit and you will find a growing list of Fudder's writing off crypto and they have a right to their own opinion. Negative news always travels faster and has more impact than positive and with massive devaluation fudders have a weapon they aren't afraid to force down peoples throats.

Scaring new investors and potential investors and effectively helping the prices drop as weak hands ensure more liquidity on the market.

Natural equilibrium

Runs will come and go but we need to look at the average growth for the year which the market has achieved at an average of 150% range which is not bad at all. I think that If you have owned any BTC lower than 10K you're pretty much ready for the long-term HODL.

I think, the risks right now outweigh the upside in the short term anyway and there will be better opportunities later on.

You may want to be more conservative and wait to pay a bit more, but buying in at that level $5,700 or $6,000 in the future would be obviously higher price, but you will be more de-risked if Bitcoin can get back to that level and make a run back to its previous high

Where do I think the bottom is?

I think that the Bitcoin (BTC) price will remain range-bound between 3 and 5k for several months and we could see it reduce down to around $3,000 mark. I think the 3K mark is safe resistance level to bank on with plenty of trade at that those prices. It is also just about double the average price of 2017 which is a conservative figure to aim for considering its bump up in previous years.

This, however, is how I see it pan out for the next 6 months, if we don't see another run within that time, I think a drop below 3K is a reality.

Have at it

What do you think of the cryptocurrency market? Do you care? Are you heavily invested? Let me know and let's make each other feel a bit better.

Let's connect

If you liked this post sprinkle it with an upvote or resteem and if you don't already, consider following me @chekohler

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