WHERE WILL BITCOIN GO FROM HERE!?? 💰📈
IS IT SPRING YET???
Hard to say. Hard to answer such questions.
Really, I think the guessing game basically boils down to when the next bull charge will be.
What I'm confident in..
besides that Bitcoin is a groundbreaking discovery that long term should go way up..
is that so far the boom/bust cycles seem to rhyme with and mirror each other, and using that pattern is probably a decent way to guess what happens next.
So what I've written about before is that we can expect it to drop to somewhere in the 2x-ish vacinity of its old floor, or to like $1500-$3000.
Which seemed like crazy talk when it was closer to $20K. But at this point has more or less fulfilled its obligation to that framework, if maybe on the higher end of it.
(It touched in the very low $3000s, I believe.)
So then it's a question of when moon? (sic) 🌙
The previous moons.. off the top of my head.. were: 2010, late 2013, 2017
So 3ish years of space.
But even accepting this general framework, it shouldn't be surprising if this leg took, say, 5 or 6 years rather than 3 or 4.
(Patterns don't perfectly tell us anything after only 3 notes. And maybe it takes longer as more attention and money is involved.)
So..
If the moon is coming soon, like late this year or early next, then the low is probably in and it's reforming now.
If the moon is still a few years away, then it would be more reasonable to expect air to come out and possibly cold new lows.
That's essentially what it comes down to IMO-- if you could magically know the length of this cycle, then you could take a decent guess at the shorter-term trajectory.
But of course we don't magically know that..
Right now I feel like the market is essentially wrestling over and pricing in the chance of it mooning soon, given the history of the 3-4 year cycle.
If I had 0 btc I'd probably just want to get some and not really care how close I get to the bottom..
(maybe I'd hold my nose for a few months, and then buy later this year)
BUT, if I was a guessing man, I'd say the moon will prove to not be here yet, and air will come out again before retracing for real.
HARD TO SAY.
No way to know.
It seems at least possible that spring could be here..
Like, it's not like before where you'd have these people on YouTube calling for "breakouts to $30K" and you know they're full of shit and are just wishful thinking or trying to get views or whatever.
It seems at least vaguely realistic to start thinking about summer now.. 🤔
But it's also possible that this is a little head fake.
And head fake would tend to be my guess.
Like one of those warm days in March where you assume obv winter is over, but then it snows next week and only in hindsight you realize how long you had to go.
We'll see. Hard to say.
If it's locked up long-term and there isn't a chance you need the cash or worry-sell when it goes down, then it's hard for buying Bitcoin to ever be much of a mistake.
But I wouldn't be surprised if we still had plenty of bear or sideways market.