Arthur Hayes: "The current bear market could last another 18 months"
The current bear market may not even be half way over.
Industry analyst and CEO of popular derivatives exchange Bitmex, Arthur Hayes says that we may still have a ways to go before prices really start to go up again.
Specifically Hayes had this to say:
"Based on previous experience the low volatility and volume trading climate could persist for another 12 to 18 months."
Another 12-18 months from here?!
Yikes!
Why does Hayes think the bear market may still have some teeth left?
According to Hayes, it is strictly based on his experience in the crypto space.
Hayes continued with this:
“I started in bitcoin in 2013 when the price went from $250 to $1,300 and then 2014 to 2015 was sort of the nuclear bear market. Price crashed, volume crashed — very, very difficult to make money.”
Hayes experienced one of the worst bear markets on record and is using that as his barometer for this recent one.
In his defense, the current bear market looks an awful lot like the bear market that started in 2013.
(Source: https://bittimes.net/news/20459.html)
Similar, but not exactly alike:
In 2013 the bear market started partly due to a parabolic increase in prices but also was exacerbated by the Mt. Gox exchange shutting down.
At the time Mt. Gox handled something like 70%+ of all crypto trades in the world.
When that exchange shut down people literally thought bitcoin and crypto might be going away.
At this point there is no doubt in people's minds that crypto is not going away.
There is more awareness and many places for people to trade crypto than there was back then.
It honestly is like comparing apples to oranges.
At this point I would be surprised if this bear market lasted as long as the one from 2013 did. However, that being said I would not be surprised if we had another 6 months or so before prices started really going up again.
Stay informed my friends.
Image Source:
https://cryptoslate.com/bitcoin-bear-market-could-last-another-year-and-a-half-says-bitmex-ceo/
Follow me: @jrcornel
Perhaps a good time to continue buying. Cheers 🥂
I think it is.
I love the "experts" saying these things. They are always so wrong! haha
Not always, but in most cases their predictions do end up being wrong. The market continually proves even the most informed investors wrong.
Whatever CNBC says do the other thing haha!
Hayes didn't say this on CNBC, though he is a special guest on there sometimes. He puts out a blog every few weeks/months with his thoughts on the state of the crypto markets.
I wasn't referring about him. I just wanted to point out how mainstream media corrupts predictions by simply making them. regards
Yep, there is likely a lot of truth to that.
What is your personal feeling?
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My personal feeling is that we may have to wait till around Spring of 2019 before we see thing start to really rally again.
I hear you. I am ready to start seeing some green again. This whole seeing red every day has gotten old.
Tell me about it... this is my only source of income and I'm trying to help support my granddaughter- pretty hard at $5.00 a post!
Yep I hear you. Hopefully SMTs provide some demand for steem. It seems they have given up on steemit.com.
Me too... looks like when I predicted $0.95 at the end of the year I was being over-optimistic lol!
Still have 2 months left. 2 months that traditionally are pretty good for crypto. ;)
True... I've had my fingers crossed hoping for that 4 quarter runup!
The longer it takes the more time i have to accumulate. So i don't view it as a bad thing.
That is how I feel as well. As long as it eventually goes up, we are good.
He may be also saying that because BitMex itself has an incentive for traders to continue betting on volatile moves given their leveraged products. Not sure if I trust that perspective in all honesty. The reality is that nobody knows for sure however we do see lots of capital flowing into the underlying technology which would lead to some type of catalyst for better times.
Good point. He has pointed out several times that he doesn't care where prices go as long as people are trading. Perhaps fear is easier to sell than pumps?!
Thanks for the article, very interesting.
Don't matter, I'm prepared for a 5 year bear market.
Posted using Partiko Android
Wow. I don't think we see anything like that. Though I do think it is possible we don't see much of a rally until end of 2019.
yes i agreed with Hayes this is the right time to buy..up up up for power..
He doesn't seem to think things improve in the near term. Not tank, just not improve.