Diary of a Bitcoin babaji part 29 – Price predictions for the next 10 years

“Out of many thousands among men, one may endeavour for perfection, and of those who have achieved perfection, hardly one knows me in truth.” Bhagavad Gita as it is chapter 7:3
Of the millions of people reading blogs, only a handful will read this one (also posted in my wordpress blog), and of that handful you may be one of the few that get any real value out of it. That does not deter me, for I write because I want to. I write for myself primarily and if you benefit as a reader then that is your good fortune to have the foresight to access this data and apply the info to your life. You, like me, are one of the lucky ones because this knowledge is so new and revolutionary that few have yet come across it or even know of it, and even fewer know how to apply it to their lives. And this knowledge is called blockchain technology and it drives cryptocurrency and it is here to stay. The rest of the world will catch up when they get the memo.
Personal background
To give you some personal background, I sit here writing this in my forest hut, powering my ten year old laptop via solar panel and battery, while uploading to the internet via my five year old smart phone as a portable wifi hotspot. Wildfires have been raging in the hills all around me for the past ten days now. The sun and moonlight are tinged with an eerily sinister orange glow. Ash falls from the sky covering everything and the smell of smoke is all pervading, especially at night as the climate conditions invert. This is the new norm on planet earth and certain parts of the globe are just feeling it more immediately than others. Climate change is here and life will never be the same again. Already last year I went through the worst fire in 150 years in this region, which burnt down my previous wooden cottage with all its contents, along with 1000 other homes here on the south coast of Africa. And the same wildfire is back 16 months later, ravaging the hillsides and indigenous forests a few kilometres further afield this time, fuelled by shifting climate extremes. Now other nearby towns and villages are in life-threatening danger, both to the east and west of me. Two years in row we’re getting once in a century catastrophes, with people dying, houses destroyed and hundreds if not thousands evacuated from their humble forest villages to community halls to wait it out while the fire fighters, planes and helicopters attempt to douse the infernos.
The internet library
Everything I know about blockchain technology and cryptocurrency I have taught myself via the internet, reading articles and watching Youtube videos. All the info you need is there for free. Everything from economics, stock market trading analysis using Fibonacci, MACD, RSI... as well as cryptocurrency, ICO’s and blockchain. You can find out all you need to know wherever you are via the internet. So this information is available to everyone with that luxury. First world countries take internet access and wifi for granted. It’s flowing free of charge in every major city for anyone to tap into apparently. Here in Africa we are charged a premium for data or a connection. That’s just how it is in most third world countries it seems. Still here I am accessing the most progressive, revolutionary technology on the planet today, that is destined to change the way we do business, trade, store and exchange wealth and data for decades to come. If I can find out then so can anyone in the first world. Yet still mainstream adoption is slow, even a decade after the appearance of blockchcain technology on the planet. Admittedly I also came to this info late in the game – a year ago – after hearing it mentioned for a few years before that already. I just wasn’t ready and thought it was beyond me, until the penny dropped – or in this case the coin. Once I realised what Bitcoin was, I was sold. Last year during the bull run of December 2017 I bought some cryptocurrency and doubled my money in a week. It was amazing. Then due to inexperience I didn’t know the retracement for what it was when I saw it and simply held my coins. So I “hodl” still, until the next bull run, and so should you if you’re new to the game. Buy now and hold your crypto in safe keeping because there will be further opportunities to double your money, triple, five times, according to the experts.
When Moon?
The current bear market is an extended one. Most investors were anticipating an upswing in price around now, the fourth quarter of 2018. But the way things are going, with the lowest volume ever in Bitcoin trading since 2010, and less volatility than even the stock market, it is likely that we will only see a real bull run in another six months or even a year from now. And that’s fine. We only invest what we don’t need for daily living expenses and we await the long term returns. With only 21 million Bitcoins ever to be available, the supply is extremely limited and the demand will grow as blockchain technology becomes more mainstream and adoption grows. As adoption grows, price will climb. For example in 2010 the first Bitcoins were worth a few cents. The first ever purchase using Bitcoin was when Laszlo Hanyecs bought two pizzas for 10 000 Bitcoins – worth $40. That’s $63 million today, and at its ATH (all time high) just under a year ago that would have been $200 million. And that is just the start according to some experts.
“Whatever action a great man performs, common men follow. And whatever standards he sets by exemplary acts, all the world pursues.” Bhagavad Gita as it is chapter 3:21
Expert Bitcoin price predictions
Here is what some of the experts say about the future of Bitcoin’s price potential. Wences Casares, an Argentinain tech entrepreneur living in the USA, is a board member at Paypal among other things. He predicts Bitcoin will be worth $1 million by 2027. Chamath Palihapitiya, hedge fund manager and founder of Social Capital believes that Bitcoin will be worth $100 000 in the next four years and $1 million in the next 20 years.
“This thing has the potential to be comparable to the value of gold…This is a fantastic hedge and store of value against autocratic regimes and banking infrastructure that we know is corrosive to how the world needs to work properly.”
Chamath Palihapitiya
John Pfeffer, a partner at his family’s Pfeffer Capital firm in London predicts $700 000 Bitcoin at some unspecified time in the future. That’s over 100 times its current value. He analyses that it’s the first ever viable candidate to replace gold that the world has ever seen. It’s the new digital gold because, like gold it is finite and takes effort to “mine”. Gold is certainly more dependable that paper fiat money, but Bitcoin is easier to store than gold. The current value of all privately owned gold is around $1.6 trillion. So assuming there will only ever be about 17 million Bitcoins (4 million are officially already lost forever from crashed or lost hard drives), a conservative estimate means Bitcoin will be worth at least $100 000.
One of the more famous predictions is by the well-known John McAfee, founder of the first commercial antivirus software in the 1980s. He currently runs a company that mines various cryptocurrencies and predicts a Bitcoin price of half a million dollars by 2020, which is probably a bit overzealous. Another tech first mover is Jeremy Liew who was a first investor in the social media app Snapchat. He also invested heavily in the LedgerX, a crucial piece of Bitcoin tech. With an estimated net worth of around $2 billion, his prediction for Bitcoin of $500 000 is not to be taken lightly. I mean these guys know what they’re talking about when it comes to finance and the tech industry. They have made fortunes beyond our imagination and therefore if anyone can estimate the value of a future investment, it’s them. Mark Yusco, another billionaire and founder of Morgan Creek Capital reckons $400 000 is a safe prediction, based on math and the theory that Bitcoin is an equivalent of gold.
“It’s just math. It is gold equivalent…there are about 20 million Bitcoin available today. Gold today is about $8 trillion. That gives you $400,000. And that doesn’t include use cases that relate to currency.”
Mark Yusco
Another famous early investor in Bitcoin – since 2011 - is Roger Ver. He is conservative in his prediction, at $250 000, having made it way back in 2015. Another conservative estimate of a mere $100 000 by 2027 comes from Kay Van Peterson, an analyst at Danish investment bank Saxo. This guy holds an Msc degree in Applied Economics and Finance, so don’t take my word for it that Bitcoin could potentially make you rich if you invest now. Other conservative estimates include Tom Lee’s prediction of $91 000 by 2020. That’s in at most two years from now. Also Tai Lopez, another investor and analyst hypothesises that if just 1% of the assets of millionaires globally is invested in Bitcoin, it could reach a price of $60 000 in the medium term. Then there’s Ronnie Moas, founder and director of Standpoint Research, an equity firm involving traditional and modern investments. With an MBA to his name and dozens of radio and TV appearances, he sees Bitcoin at $50 000 by 2020 and an overall market cap of all cryptocurrencies at $2 trillion (compared to a current $150 billion) in ten years. That market cap is conservative compared to the prediction of the Winkelvos twins, who see it reaching $5 trillion. Gold by comparison has a $7 trillion global market at present and they see it as gold 2.0, being more portable and more divisible.
Admittedly these people all have a personal vested interest in Bitcoin and are thus bullish toward its price appreciation. But then they are also billionaires and masters in economics academically and professionally. Still I recommend you take their speculations with a pinch of salt. Others have tried to predict Bitcoin’s future price and failed already. Nevertheless I just wanted to put this out there so that you could get an idea of the overall sentiment around Bitcoin’s future, particularly now in this current bear market, where it seems price has fallen dismally to around the mid $6000s and stagnated. We are still in the early days of blockchain adoption globally and there is a long way to go until mainstream adoption, much like the internet around the turn of the century. But remember I’m just a lone voice in the wilderness reaching out form my hut in the forest, so what do I know. Never take anything I say as investment advice, it’s all purely speculation based on what I’ve read and researched. And the internet is there for you to do your own research before making any financial decisions. So until next time, thanks for reading my blog, you’re a one in a million, and remember to keep your feet on the ground as you reach for the moon.