BTC pumps above key resistance! The importance of basic TA

Since Feb 2018 we have been bouncing off a key resistance line, visible in this chart.

Every time the price has crossed or even come close to this line we have been pushed back from it. This is why the pump we are looking at now is a critical moment in the history of Bitcoin.

If we can stay above this line for the next few days, resistance will become support and it will be difficult for us to drop below it again. At least that's how it works in an unmanipulated market.

There are many resistance lines, most notably the 200 day moving average.

Break above this one and a rally will likely follow.

Resistance lines also form at key price points which have proved tricky to break free of in the past. Some people are calling this $4,400 - $4,500 area a key resistance level.

Probability & Market Sentiment

What resistance lines ultimately represent is probability.

Break above them and the probability is that we will go higher. Get rejected by them and the price will likely drop. When key resistance lines are broken and stay broken, market sentiment swings and bulls return to the table.

The more times a resistance line is tested with a failed break out (further validating its existence) the higher the probability of a big upward move when it is broken.

Make mistakes only once

When we were in the accumulation phase last time around I was too busy accumulating to learn any of the above and like many I was burned when the price crashed down because I didn't understand the bigger picture and had I tethered my stash back in Jan 2018 (or converted to fiat) I would be in a much better position now to accumulate with a vengeance.

So, I cannot understate the importance of having some basic TA skills. Learn to see the bigger picture and don't make the same mistake I made. The market works in cycles. And so too must we, if we intend to take full advantage of it.

These cycles are much more visible when we look at Bitcoin on a logarithmic chart.

This chart is a little out of date because we have since dropped under the red trend line and just as it was in 2014/2015 we will trade sideways for a while all the time building momentum up to the next parabolic movement.

Many argue that due to Bitcoin being in a very different position now to where it was in the last accumulation phase (both technically speaking & in public awareness) the bull market is likely to be confirmed this year. But in truth the technicals point to next year.

Alts on the other hand are a different story and if Bitcoin trades sideways for a year I will be watching the 32 assets in my Exodus wallet with great interest.

Bitcoin dominance has been falling this year because the money is trickling down into the alts now. Notice the upward curve of the second line from the top, 'Others'.

This looks a lot like the moment we have been waiting for folks.

Though please don't take this as financial advice!

Just my humble opinion & a few basic charts.

Long term crypto trader Sunny Decree (who I enjoy watching on YouTube) is telling us not to get too excited.

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The market dominance chart can be viewed here while all the other charts I took from Bitfinex, with the exception of the logarithmic chart which came from an article on Medium.

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