Age Of HODL Reborn?
Fellow Hodlers rejoice! As an investor in crypto-currencies you're not at all interested in the moment-to-moment price action, you're not hanging on the lips of yet another technical analysts telling you why the price tomorrow will be X or Y. As an investor, a hodler, you're interested in the long term.
Image by Marco Verch - source: Flickr
On Coinmarketcap the price of Bitcoin is pushing 5200 dollar; that's 2000 dollar above its all-time low of 3100 dollar last December. December 2018 marked the one year anniversary of the bear market that started after the all time high of almost 20,000 dollar reached in December 2017. Maybe that's why the past year seemed so long; it's been a painful journey of going down and sideways. While the period between April and December 2017 attracted a lot of new users, with most of them entering the space in November and December when the Moon seemed the limit, most of them have left already because of all the negativity around the price during the year long bear market that followed. Needless to say that BTC and crypto-currencies in general lost a lot in popularity due to much negative mouth-to-mouth by this large group of disillusioned new investors.
Well, I guess a lot of them will be stepping back in, as all signs point to an end of the bearish trend. Like I said, I don't put much faith in TA and just calmly wait until BTC hits its rightful place of replacing Gold as the world's most popular store of value; 200,000 dollar is a bare minimum for BTC in my opinion, it's just a matter of time before it gets there. What's interesting is that I've found this guy on YouTube, Bob Loukas, who has a very interesting analysis on the previous two 4-year cycles of BTC's price. Each cycle consists of three years upward and one year bearish, whit each up-cycle marked by heavily accelerated growth during the last couple of months. I joined the crypto-force in May 2017 and as such experienced the last months of the previous up-cycle as well as the bearish year that followed.
Watch his video if you're in for some good news for all hodlers; Loukas is 98% sure that the December 3100 dollar low marked the and of the bear-cycle and that we're just entering the next upward trend that should last 3 years, with a crazy final quarter closing around October 2021 with a new all-time high of 10X the previous one; that's 200,000 dollar. After that the next drop should bring us back to around 50,000 dollar. This is of course not sure at all, but Loukas makes a convincing case and is wise enough to warn about alternative price developments too. It's been 20 minutes since I started typing this and BTC has just passed 5200 dollar; so at least the last 20 minutes have been bullish...
The Next 4-Year Cycle Started
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