The End Of Jobs... UBI

in #busy5 years ago (edited)

The end of jobs or the end of jobs as we currently know them?

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Many love to push the idea that we are running out of jobs. I disagree, I think we are running out of jobs as we know them.

People will always find ways to provide things of Value and people will always find a way to "pay" them for it. Humans have been trading since cavemen started crafting bones and stick into tools.

Let's pretend for a minute that some Nation does try out Universal Basic Income. The concept being that someone presumably a Government begins to pay people just to be alive. (Many if not all states and Nations already have a Welfare System for those who can't work) So, the idea is you get $1000 a month just to be alive.

My short story version of how it might go:

Year 1: Those who pay taxes and work are angry. Those who feel they will receive are happy. The budget is done and they begin to print and mail checks. Many keep working, but those who hate their jobs quit and decide to collect UBI.

Year 2: The project is already over budget as more people quit working than anticipated and due to taxes even working people had less disposable income so they quit buying things, which in turn hurts tax revenue and the income of the businesses who are paying the taxes. Some layoffs begin to happen.

Year 3: Many of the elective jobs in year one have now gone away, luxury items already hurting are now taxed harder to try to make up for the difference. There are a few new jobs to administrate the new project but the working class is taxed at very high levels. Many of the people who are collecting UBI are unable to manage their money and are now showing up at food banks and other places.

Year 4: $1000 a month in cash is determined to be too high and many are mismanaging these funds and still living without healthcare, quality food, etc. Seeing this as a problem: Leaders replace the cash with food stamps, government issued shoes and hair vouchers. Smart people learn to cut their own hair and the hair of their friends to save and trade hair coupons. The friends tip and trade for these services. Others who love fancy hair buy these vouchers. A new economy begins to develop. It is obvious the program is in financial trouble.

Year 5: Most private businesses have now closed as people cannot afford designer clothing, shoes, eating out and cars are unneeded and deemed a luxury. So few people are working that the burden of the program continues to collapse. All clothing for those on UBI are now standard issue tee-shirts and jeans, 2 new pairs of brown leather loafers are provided. Along with food stamps and even less cash. Sally who lives on the corner of 3rd and Parkplace begins to sew designs on the clothing for those who's fashion sense is offended by the bland clothing. People trade food, money and other items in exchange.

Year 6: Taxes have grown so heavy that nearly no one is working, the program no longer can provide a standard of living above poverty levels and people once again learn to do trades, grow food, cooperate and trade labor to rebuild houses and pave the roads. (We have to have roads)

Anyway, you can see where this is headed. No jobs will never go away, UBI will never be sustainable and you would likely hate it, anyway. No one WANTS to be the ward of a government, if you question this you have missed history.

However, jobs as we know them, are going away, and I am thankful. Businesses were meant to produce or sell something, or maybe provide a service. They shouldn't be responsible for their employees' retirement, healthcare, sick leave, baby leave, vacations, mental health and in some places even sexual equality. That's not what they are good at and it's not what they do. The sooner jobs as we know them go away the better. I'm not saying it is going to be a comfortable road, but I do not think the current model is in anyone's best interest.

I have no idea what this post is besides a collection of odd thoughts on jobs going away and UBI.

@whatsup

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@whatsup,
I thought STEEM will be the place that end of my jobs! But it wasn't so far!

Cheers~

In my opinion, this analysis breaks down at #1. Let's suppose, as you do, that UBI at a level of $1,000 has been implemented. Let's assume it's done by introducing negative taxation meaning that the tax rates are adjusted so as to make $1,000 the minimum take home income regardless of how much you earn and that, at some point below average earnings, you become a net payer instead of a net recipient.

You say:

Those who pay taxes and work are angry. Those who feel they will receive are happy. The budget is done and they begin to print and mail checks. Many keep working, but those who hate their jobs quit and decide to collect UBI.

I don't think living on $1,000 will make anyone happy. If you don't believe me, ask people who subsist on benefits like that. The very reason a growing number of people will be forced to live on that kind of money is that jobs requiring a low skill level will be automated. There wouldn't be enough jobs paying $1,000 to $2,000 to go around. Those people who would be willing to quit a job in which they earn $3,000-$4,000 or more just to get to live on $1,000 without working would be few and far between. There is a massive difference between the lifestyle you can have earning the current average full time salary and $1,000. Besides, jobs are not only a source of income but identity and self-respect for a large majority of people.

Do you really expect a lot of people to sacrifice the financial well-being and future of their own and their dependents for an opportunity to collect a small fraction of what they earned previously for the opportunity to sit around all day, do nothing and feel completely useless? Do you think that would sit well with their spouses for one thing especially if they're husbands?

UBI will be introduced simply to replace the much more complicated bureaucratic, and expensive-to-run systems of welfare already in place. The problem with the current welfare systems is that they tend to be unsuited to the needs of modern working life requiring constant updating of skills and the gig economy becoming a larger part of the labor market. From what I've heard, there are significant discouraging elements to the way unemployment benefits and the means tested income support system work where I live.

What about dismantling current welfare systems altogether if they are so problematic? If you did that, it would be courting disaster. Not a penny would ultimately be saved as the basic problem of rapidly changing skill distribution demanded on the labor market will not only persist but become worse. Even higher costs would be incurred elsewhere like the criminal justice system. Why wouldn't current welfare recipients simply get jobs instead? Because if you look at not simply the number of jobs available but the pay available from those jobs, you will see that employers are increasingly unwilling and unable to pay a living wage except for jobs requiring much higher than average IQ. There is a huge demand for competent software engineers, in particular. The problem with that is that the typical laid off middle manager or industrial worker does not have sufficient innate intelligence to learn programming anywhere near as well as is required for anyone to make a living on it.

This is the kind of ubi i agree with. It uses existing social welfare monies to make the system more efficient.

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Yes, that's the idea. It isn't without problems, however. About €1,000 is someone living alone and not able to get a job would get in form of unemployment benefit, housing support and means tested income support put together where I live. The problem is that you can't pay everyone that much because it would cost way too much. But if you only paid, say, a half of that, a lot of people would end up in the street. What I'm proposing is implementing UBI in a gradual manner. There are benefits that are part of basic welfare that are mutually exclusive such as unemployment benefits and the state-paid minimum pension. Those components should be replaced with UBI because, in practice, you collect one of them no matter what if you're not working for one reason or another. One good thing about implementing UBI gradually and starting from a lower level is the opportunity to gain information on UBI works.

Actually youbare right, some people like babies won't need it and people with jobs would be happy with tax write offs. Tax deductibles and rebates, etc. are already over 2000 per month in most developed countries. Simplfying the tax code would save us billions.

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The $1000 was arbitrary and I should have said that. Meaning it was a made up number. No one is going to pay people to not work for any length of time it is unsustainable and will quickly collapse on its self. It's just an opinion. I love how people say, what it WILL be.

It's a fantasy, some form of it will likely be briefly introduced before it brings whatever nation that launches it to its knees. If you can't get companies to pay a living wage to people for working, how will they pay people for not working and more importantly... why

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We recommend a read of the Bullshit Job Theory (we loved the book, though the summary is just as good) by anthropologist David Graeber.

While we won't comment on the issue of UBI (since there is not enough data or precedence for anyone to come up with a conclusion), our Geckos do agree that a change in society is needed. Will a decentralised, uncontrollable , censorship-resistant, peer-to-peer, apolitical payment system helps to bring about the change? We certainly hope so!

I've had a couple of different people come on my philosophy show discussing this idea and I think most people expect me to be onboard with it. I actually think it would work just like the minimum wage and welfare, which ultimately just subsidize and drive up the prices of everything, which would ultimately nullify the "value" that people are credited with. I think communist, socialist, and capitalist governments have proven that none of these systems allow for a "free lunch." People have to provide some sort of value to receive any sort of value from society or else we're just playing Robin Hood with tax money.

That being said, I think there's a lot of problems with our current system. Crony capitalism is fundamentally broken and leads to this illusions of a government doing what's in the best interest of its people, which is really just whatever the corporations lobbying the politicians say it is. Walmart actually was the biggest proponent of the last minimum wage hike and it was strategic to eliminate their competition. Amazon combated that by creating a system in which they don't have to pay taxes. These corporate interests lead to government protected or legally manipulative monopolies and thinking that any amount of UBI will result in anything other than the cost of everything increasing is kind of hilarious to me.

I think of UBI as "fuck you money". Nothing to comfortably live on, but you can survive without being taken advantage of.
It should provide enough leeway for people to not have to work for complete wankers.

I concede the point that some will manoeuvre themselves in situations where they can be taken advantage of again.

Because people have the option to say no to assholes, the world will be a better place - and we all can dance like they do in Bollywood movies

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You did not mention "Robots" to do the work.

One of the faulty assumptions I believe that is being made is that there won't be new jobs to replace those going away. I don't think that's necessarily true. There have been huge job displacements in the past (e.g. the industrial revolution). Construction equipment probably put a lot of ditch diggers out of work too but there wasn't a need for UBI.

Jobs as we know them are definitely changing. With that, I think societies — globally — will also be redefining what the idea of something being "of value" actually means. A lot of consumer products are already made by machines with limited AI. More will follow. Basic services like transportation, medical assistants, retail clerks and so forth will become automated.

I am hopeful that one thing we'll see (perhaps not in MY lifetime) is a return towards "smaller is better."

I think "value" might become more entertainment based. If I don't have to go to a "place" to be part of manufacturing buckets... I'll need something to DO with my time. What do you have that's interesting and can occupy my time... that I have to pay for?

I think UBI is an interesting beast. Government funded... that's probably a flop. Private enterprise based? Might work better. In a sense, Steem is a sort of "pseudo-UBI." You blog, you get paid a little. It's not a living wage, but the underlying principle is there.... Instead of a publishing house getting paid for content, individuals are rewarded by their peers.

Central banks have basically run out of tools to fight the next financial crisis. Quantitative Easing went to the banks and the 1%.

Interest rates are already low. Other than going negative (insane BTW) like some sovereign debt, there’s not much they can do on that front.

The next time a financial crisis hits (another year at most?) , they’ll resort to helicopter money. They won’t call it UBI, but the effect will be the same.

I can only assume ubi will require clean urine. Since I'm full of piss and vinegar I will easily corner the black market providing my potent but drug free waste to the masses. A piss farmer if you please..

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Oh look at the capitalist always trying to exploit others for personal gain. People have been pissing one another since the caveman days. Unless you're willing to let me tax the money you make on that its illegal ok?

UB right sir or UB wrong?

sheesh, I thought it was a good idea.

🤗 quid pro quo we have an accord...

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