We may have formed a bottom

It's been a while since my last analysis. I've been busy and burned out and my motivation these days isn't super high. It's a busy part of the school year and I think just about everyone working in education is burned out, and it looks like the smoke bears are burned out too! We have held the teens for quite a while and have had a few bounced up off it. We could still stay down here and consolidate for some time, but making a new low, might not be likely, but that isn't to say it can't happen, I just would not be going short (or selling) at this point.

Rising support

Looking at the current market structure we can see rising support, and prices pushing up over resistance, and retracing back.

Technical analysis is a tool, it works if you know how to use it

We see price resisting perfectly on previous resistance levels. How uncanny is that? Not at all in my opinion. We had a lot of chopping above the 0.5 area, so I would now expect that to potentially become major overhead resistance.

Volume is low, but more bullish

We haven't seen a ton of volume, but when we are seeing it, it's been on buying and bullish days. The big sellers have really stopped dumping the market as hard as they were before, which could be due to exhaustion, or because they just don't want to sell down here.

Expectations

I am sort of seeing this chop sideways in a rather large range, but begin to consolidate and over time, develop stronger market structure to reign in volatility and tighten the ranges. Eventually we will start to build up. Smoke should have a rally past 1.0 BTS again in the future.