Ag Analysis Report 3/17/19 - Expect Lean Hog Prices To Continue To Move Higher
U.S. federal agents seized 1 million pounds (454 metric tons) of pork smuggled from China to a port in New Jersey amid fears the meat could contain traces of the African swine fever virus that has ravaged the Asian country’s hog herd.
Humans can’t be infected, but pig populations can be wiped out by African swine fever. China’s hog herd -- the biggest in the world -- has plummeted as farmers cull inflicted animals.
The U.S. has never had African swine fever, and officials are stepping up efforts to keep the disease out. Any sign of illness stateside could mean that pork buyers start banning American exports at a time when producers are already suffering from Chinese tariffs. Meat products, and even some animal feed, can carry the virus, for which there is no vaccine.
According to the Department of Agriculture China recently made its biggest purchase of the pork from the U.S. in nearly two years as African swine fever reduces hog herds and drives up prices. So will Lean Hog prices continue to rise, lets go to the chart.
Monthly Chart (Curve Timeframe) - the monthly demand is at $48 and monthly supply is at $90.
Weekly Chart (Trend Timeframe) – the trend is sideways from 2016, but the current momentum is to the upside.
Daily Chart (Entry Timeframe) – the chart suggests when price pulls back to the daily supply at $63.50, to go long with a target at $80.
This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn't financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
May be a good time to be a farmer! Commodities are seemingly to be a good place to be more often than not if able to hedge but the capital required is crazy!
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Commodities will only get stronger as I anticipate the US dollar dropping over time.