Test Cricket in Australia : Will India Make History this Summer?

Before I became a Crypto Zealot I was a Cricket Tragic. Normally at this time of year heading into the Australian Summer it’s all about the cricket and I’d be studying form of players over the last 6 months to see who is coming out of the off-season and the early domestic season in good shape. This year I am a little bit distracted late but as the marquee series of the Australian Summer of Cricket approaches it’s time to get my game face on and take a good look.

Source

The series I’m talking about is the 4 Test Matches to be played between Australia and India which kicks off in Adelaide next Thursday on December 6. India has never EVER won a Test Series in Australia and considering how long both nations have been playing cricket for this is kind of a big deal. If the T20 games just played between these nations is any guide, there is going to be a massive turnout of Indian support for these Tests as there is genuine belief that history is about to be made.

Source

Australia, on the other hand, have been in turmoil since the ball-tampering scandal that has seen 3 of the best Australian batsmen (including the captain) banned from playing. Plus we have had a lot of turmoil off the field too with senior administrators being hauled over the coals for the “Win at all costs” culture they’ve been fostering. So we’ve had a few resignations and sackings there too. All up, I haven’t seen Australian cricket in this much trouble since Kim Hughes was in charge in the early 1980s. It seems like the Australian Media has been calling “Stacks On” as Australian cricket has been tearing itself apart from top to bottom and recent results on the field (albeit out of the country) are absolutely dismal.

Source

One of the things I look for when I’m betting (and playing cryptos and stocks too) is when the market has got it wrong. Often market participants suffer Recency Bias and think that because something has always happened it will continue to always happen. Here this bias is believing that Australia will somehow magically come good because they usually play well at home in familiar conditions. Well, this is skewing the market in my opinion – but before I go too deep into that I want to point out a couple of players I’ll be watching closely.

Source

The biggest variable of the whole series is actually a little known one outside of India. A young man named Prithvi Shaw who has just turned 19 and only has 2 international games under his belt which are both Test Matches that were played in India last month. He is an Opening Batsman and with a century on Test Debut helping him to a batting average of 118 over these 2 games this kid is a natural who could turn out to be something special. In the warmup 4-day game against the Cricket Australia XI in Sydney he is currently on 62 not out off 62. Indian players often struggle with the pace and bounce in Australia but if this kid can play well in Australian conditions too then look out. Alternatively, the experienced pace attack of Australia (possibly the best in the world) could totally shred his inexperience with pace and bounce. Thus he is the biggest variable of the whole series in my opinion so keep an eye on him as he could be the canary in the coalmine for Indias fortunes.

Source

The biggest constant of the series is the indomitable Virat Kohli who is now entrenched as the captain of the Indian team as well as Indias best batsman. This guy is intense and incredibly talented. He is so passionate and strong willed that I think he might be bordering on psychotic. You only have to look into his eyes and you can see the burning desire to succeed, so if there is one thing you can count on this series is that this guy is going to be right in the thick of it. Not only does he relish (and rise) to challenges put in front of him, he is ruthless and he actually loves the Australian conditions. I have no doubt that he himself is convinced that it is his destiny to be the first Indian captain to win a series in Australia and claim his place in the history books. This guy is not just coming to play, he’s coming to WIN and he won’t be taking any prisoners along the way so LOOK OUT!

Source

On the Australian side, I see a team that is chock full of talent but is still a bit lost and trying to pick itself up off the canvas. With Starc, Hazelwood and Cummins we probably have the best pace attack in the world right now. But with recent injuries and patchy form they might be a bit underdone and take a while to find their best. I’d expect them to be lethal on the fast Perth pitch (Test #2), but on the typically slower and lower Adelaide pitch next week they might toil a bit as they get back into the groove of Test cricket. The captain is Tim Paine and while I have always liked him (a career constantly cruelled with injury over the years) he is quite inexperienced as a captain, even at state level. If you go through the Australian batting order there is quite a bit of fragile talent in there. Guys like Shaun Marsh, Travis Head and Usman Khawaja are incredibly skilled batsmen but they have been really patchy and inconsistent over the years. Australia has had a lot of batting collapses in recent years and without Smith and Warner to hold things up and give these guys some anchors to bat around, this could be a tough summer for them with more batting collapses in store.

Source

So you can see where I am putting my money this summer. I think India are cracking value to make history in Australia this year by winning the series and I'm on them pretty heavy at 2.40. Particularly in Adelaide and Sydney I think India are a very good chance to win those tests and they will once again have massive crowd support in Melbourne. The only Test I won’t be backing them in is Perth where pace and bounce can be extreme. If there is one Test where the Australian fast bowlers can carry the team then Perth is it.

Good luck if you’re having a bet.

---