Riding the Red--Bitcoin Drop Not So Surprising
The following is not intended as financial advice. It is a simply a log of my own blockfolio made public so that I can get advice and thoughts from all of you. Do not make financial decisions without doing your own research.
Happy Tuesday SteemIt Friends!
It doesn’t look like I’m getting my Bitcoin a day early like I had been with Coinbase. That’s okay, we’ll work with what we got. Fair warning I’m not doing much and my explanations will be short because not much has really changed in the last twenty-four hours in regards to my picks. They were bought to be held and I’m holding. That said my estimated BTC balance has fallen 4.23% in the last 24 hours. I can’t say I didn’t really expect it.
Bitcoin has ‘crashed’ over the last day. It’s down 4.41% as of this writing. I expected Bitcoin’s value to go up and touch the Kijun, but I’m not particularly surprised to see it falling again. The cloud is bearish and so is the Tenkan.
The upside is we will hit a support at $6295 at the Tenkan. Downside is that recently the price action has been riding below the Tenkan. I’m hoping the Tenkan will be a strong enough support to keep Bitcoin above that $6295 mark, but it is entirely possible that the price will fall below it.
Another positive is that the cloud is not getting wider. We need it to thin and twist, but as long as its stabilized it’s a waiting game. There is way too much positive fundamental news for this bear cycle to go on forever. Moral of the story: I am still not looking for a turnaround before August 5th and that date will likely extend every day for awhile.
BNB is still falling. I really don’t like that it fell through the Kijun. I look for the next TK cross in the next week, pushing Binance coin closer to the bears. If we’re lucky the top of the cloud will act like a support, but luck has not personally been on my side this week.
Hopefully the upcoming token burn will help us regain some bullish momentum on the 18th, but don’t be disappointed if it doesn’t. The simple fact is Bitcoin is the leader of this particular parade and Bitcoin is bearish.
Ripple’s bearish cycle is getting stronger. The bearish cloud is getting wider. There is no possibility of a kumo twist soon with that cloud getting wider, it needs to get narrower. The shift of the Stoch RSI indicates we may not even be at the bottom.
Three hours ago CCN.com published a story with one of the Ripples senior vice presidents stating the biggest threat to Ripple is regulation. While I agree with Ms. Birla, you do not say it while in the middle of a down market. We all know regulation is coming, so you basically admitted that the biggest risk to your company is coming at you teeth bared and muzzle bloody.
I think her goal was to reassure people they were prepared, but she could have done that without putting fuel on the fire of an already down market. In short, no matter how good Ripple is a project people are afraid. You don’t feed the fear of your already fearful customers.
Knowing this I bought into Ripple too early. It will drop for awhile until that quote clears the air. I do believe when it turns around I’ll be getting my money back, but I’m wishing I could have bought at the absolute bottom.
https://www.ccn.com/the-biggest-risk-we-face-today-is-regulation-senior-ripple-executive/
After dropping like a rock from a skyscraper yesterday EOS looks like she might be on a stabilization candle. There isn’t that much price action on it as of right now. It would not surprise me for it to fall just a little more today and tomorrow. I hate to give a number it will stabilize at, but it will surprise me if it drops below 0.0011460 BTC.
I am watching this Kumo twist on July 27th. I want to see which way the price breaks at it. With it bringing the cloud into bearish territory where the Tenkan already is, it could cause a drop. I’m hoping more for a consolidation if we’re lucky, but I plan to ride it out either way.
There is news on Block.one as of 11 hours ago. They hold around of 10% of the EOS coins available and they have decided they are going to start voting with them. They created EOS and now they have a disproportionate say in who block producers will be. No wonder the price dropped so harshly yesterday.
I honestly don’t think I’m comfortable with Block.one holding so much. To me, and I could be wrong, it brings into the serious question how decentralized the coin really is. Holding 10% allows for a lot of manipulation. Little actions they take—like voting on block producers—will ripple out throughout the ecosystem.
I’m not selling, but I absolutely will not risk more than the minimum on EOS. Sooner or later this action by Block.one is going to come back to bite everyone holding EOS—me included.
https://www.coindesk.com/block-one-is-taking-a-bigger-role-with-eos-and-thats-a-big-deal/
I have no idea what is going on with Ethereum the last two days. I get the Tenkan is bearish, but one would think the bullish could would have provided some support at the bottom of the cloud. Ethereum is solid enough that these Bitcoin drops shouldn’t be pulling it along for the ride. Then again, it seems to be having the same effect on every other coin I own…so…. Of course, today’s drop could be partly because of Elon Musk tweeting about the Ethereum twitter scam bots.
That was the bad news as of a few hours ago, but only six hours ago it was announced Ethereum is moving into phase 2. I would think this is good news. That good news is having absolutely no effect on the price. Ethereum is a solid coin. I don’t worry about holding it. I just wish these charts would give me something concrete so I could have some idea how long I’ll be holding it.
https://ethereumworldnews.com/elon-musk-ethereum-twitter-bot-2018/
I’m actually kind of proud of NEO right now. With the big drop going on in Bitcoin I am honestly surprised that it didn’t drop more. It’s got a really thin candle going on for today, which is about all I can ask for.
There really isn’t a lot of news going on today in regards to NEO. That may have helped to keep the drop to a minimum.
I expected Ontology to lose some value after the airdrop, but I had kind of hoped we were done falling. I plan to hold out on it, but I look for the eventual turnaround to be slow. Now when it does turnaround it is going to hit a resistance at the bottom of the cloud.
The fact that Ontology’s MainNet launched yesterday doesn’t help. I haven’t been doing this long, but I have yet to see a MainNet have a good effect on price. I’m sure it’s happened, I just haven’t seen it in the last few months. It looks like Ontology is sticking to the trend.
https://cointelegraph.com/press-releases/ontology-mainnet-ontology-1-0-has-officially-launched
I want to do a touchdown dance, but I don’t play football and I don’t dance. Look at that…we have ourselves a green candle today! Now it could betray me and go red by tomorrow morning, but it’s more than I expected today when I saw Bitcoin’s drop.
The Binance announcement may have something to do with the price turnaround, too. Early this morning Binance tweeted that they finally finished the Tron token swap that started way back in the end of June.
I can accept a 1% loss on VeChain right now considering what is going on with Bitcoin. Their mobile wallet has launched, but I think this good news is countered by the idea that it means their token swap is coming. Around mid-month is when they’re saying VEN tokens will transition to Thor.
https://www.newsbtc.com/2018/07/09/vechainthor-mobile-wallet-released-ahead-of-mid-july-token-swap/
So, bad day for my blockfolio…probably for other people’s blockfolios as well. The main stream financial media is not helping. Look at these articles:
https://www.coindesk.com/cryptocurrency-concept-is-a-fallacy-says-finnish-central-bank-advisor/
The first one is touting how down the market is. It’s only saving grace is that they admit people are standing behind the $25k by December prediction. The second is about a hack and the third is a bank advisor saying it’s a fallacy.
Let me rephrase these summaries so you can be clear on what’s going on here: A company that has made it’s fortune in the fiat market shares some good news on a cryptocurrency prediction, but reminds everyone that it has fallen 50% this year. There has been a 13.5 million dollar hack of a decentralized exchange of decentralized cryptocurrency causing one wallet on the exchange to be compromised—coins held by traders are safe in their personal wallets. A man whose livelihood depends entirely on fiat currency declares cryptocurrency a fallacy.
The media is hyping these stories. They try to downplay the good or make it sound bad. That hack proved the system worked. Crypto was only lost from one wallet owned by the exchanged. In short, they were careless with their keys. The fact that nothing was stolen from individual traders’ wallets proves it works. How often do you get a letter stating your credit or debit card has been compromised? At least every couple of years I end up with a new card because the system has been hacked. Same potato, different field.
Keep your heads up all, we may be riding the slope down; but the coming hills on this roller coaster will be worth it. At least they will be for me—you have to make your own decision whether or not you’ll be staying on the ride with me.