Surely you've seen this dog before.

Sitting in a burning room professing that all is well, he's found on the internet everywhere that cryptocurrencies are crashing in price. I'm sure he is also used for topics other than crypto; but being a crypto guy, that falls beyond my blogging jurisdiction.

From https://www.reddit.com/r/Vechain/comments/8ysuvk/me_currently_with_the_vechain_prices/ - but I'm sure it's been bounced around from site to site before landing there

🔥🔥 THIS IS FINE! 🔥🔥

But is it really?

Mr. Realistic himself is about to wade in on this topic and have his say.

It's easy to kid yourself. The link in the sentence above will show you three ways that you do it on a daily basis. Several times a day actually. The sad truth is that human beings are not designed to deal with reality; in order to maintain a healthy psychological outlook, it is necessary for people to continually fool themselves with false positivity. I'm not making this up, and I'm not going to repeat myself. Just click the link and read the post.

I don't like kidding myself. I'd rather be miserable and wise than happy and delusional. Not really an advisable choice; especially since being around happy and delusional people makes me even more miserable! 😂 It sounds funny, but I am being serious.

If being miserable is the nasty price to pay for realism, then why do it? So I can write posts like this of course! Okay, not just the posts, it's also so that I can get a good look at the future of my crypto investments and make sound decisions. I don't have a magic crystal ball, but I can share my realistic perspective. If you knew just how rare that skill was, you would appreciate my posts much more! 😏 <<< I hope that this emoji looks like a wry smile to you.

I know that market pessimism may seem like the opposite of "happy and delusional", but it isn't. Once again: read that post link...

This IS fine! Isn't it?

Yes. It is fine. Here is why I say that:

Look at this chart, just look at it. I'm not going to draw any lines on it for you. You tell me - no wait - you tell YOURSELF which way this line is going:

From TradingView

That's the entire price history of BTC (logarithmic view). What's the problem?

I could end this post already, BOOM, point made. But as I still haven't learnt to write short posts, I'm going to carry on.

A chart like that shows you the past, but how about the future? Orderbooks, orderbooks show you the future. Let's look at the biggest ones (in terms of 24 hour volume for specific trading pairs) available on TradingView. I'll zoom in to about $2000 either side of the current price as that is where the price battle is being fought for the moment.

The biggest BTC/USDT pair is that of Binance:

From TradingView

The biggest BTC/USD pair is that of BitStamp:

From TradingView

Having seen those orderbooks, are you still waiting for BTC to drop much lower? If you are, I have another post for you: https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@bitbrain/the-insanity-of-bearish-expectations

Or how about some fundamental analysis? In the interests of keeping this post brief, I'm not going to do any FA now. Do it yourself. Keep an eye on the news to get an idea of which way things are going and how blockchains are revolutionising the world as a disruptive technology. Here are a few recent examples of such news:

• https://blokt.com/news/institutional-investors-quietly-accumulating-bitcoin
• https://ethereumworldnews.com/stellar-xlm-partnership-with-ibm-backed-by-australian-gov/
• https://whichblockchain.com/uncategorized/blockchain-based-smartphone-coming-this-november/
• https://www.cryptocurrencyguide.org/binance-backs-founders-bank-the-worlds-first-decentralized-and-community-owned-bank/
• https://ambcrypto.com/bitcoin-etf-license-application-sec-filed-cboe-global-markets/
• https://cryptolinenews.com/2018/07/south-korean-lawmakers-envision-a-new-dawn-to-the-countrys-crypto-space/
• https://cryptocoinmastery.com/indian-crypto-exchanges-drop-fiat-support-accounts-close-due-to-rbi-ban/ - hey it can't ALL be good news!
• https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-12/billionaire-steven-cohen-is-said-to-invest-in-crypto-hedge-fund
• https://cryptolinenews.com/2018/07/crypto-exchange-launches-fiat-deposits-and-withdrawals-in-the-usa/
• http://mainbloq.io/facebook-relaxes-ban-accepts-some-crypto-ads/

Don't forget the upcoming Bitcoin ETF decision to be made by the SEC probably in August (some time from 16 August onwards - the 10 August date was based on an incorrect assumption - apparently). That one should cause movement in the charts one way or another.

You can also read this excellent post that somebody once wrote on the subject: https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@bitbrain/bitcoin-price-predictions-chart-display-part-3-the-s-curve-more-good-news . It's one of my early posts, but still one of my very best!

Done properly you will have to come to the realisation that cryptos are only going to rise in the long term. So what's there to worry about? Because they will surely rise, there is also not a huge chance of them dropping substantially further at this stage, big money knows which way the wind is blowing. Short of deliberate manipulation (which is difficult but not impossible), crypto shouldn't jump downwards much lower than what it is now.

The bottom has already been tested three times in 2018 (or more - depending on what sort of minimum time period you define between "tests"). It's held at an approximate level of $250 Bn total market cap or $6000 BTC. You could call that a buy wall which is being slowly eroded more each time it is tested, or you could see it as a strong support which recharges between "tests". I'll agree that this point is open to interpretation, but is still worthy of consideration.

If all else fails...

..and you still feel like I'm being too positive, then don't follow me - follow the wisdom of Wall Street guru Thomas Lee: https://www.crypto-economy.net/en-CA/tom-lee-and-bitcoins-misery-index/ and see why your negative is really a positive.

Remember: it's always darkest just before the dawn ~ Thomas Fuller

Yours in crypto,
Bit Brain

---

Published on

by Bit Brain

---