Cryptocurrency and ICO Market Analysis (March 5-11, 2018)

in #cryptocurrency6 years ago

analysis-1841158_1920.jpg

This report presents data on the cryptocurrency and ICO market changes during 2017-2018. Special emphasis has been placed on an analysis of the changes that took place in March 2018, including over the last week (March 5-11, 2018).

Information as of March 12, 2018

Professor Dmitrii Kornilov, Doctor of Economics, Member of the Russian Academy of Natural Sciences, and Leading Analyst at ICOBox

Dima Zaitsev, PhD in Economics, Head of International Public Relations and Business Analytics Department Chief at ICOBox

Nick Evdokimov , Co-Founder of ICOBox

Mike Raitsyn , Co-Founder of ICOBox

Anar Babaev , Co-Founder of ICOBox

Daria Generalova, Co-Founder of ICOBox

Cryptocurrency Market Analysis (March 5-11, 2018)

1. General cryptocurrency and digital assets market analysis (by week, month, quarter). Market trends.

1.1. General cryptocurrency and digital assets market analysis (by week, month).

Table 1.1. Trends in capitalization of the cryptocurrency market and main cryptocurrencies from January 1, 2017, to March 11, 2018


Over the past week cryptocurrency market capitalization fell by more than 20%, from $463.3 billion to $361.7 billion (as of 03:00 UTC, see Table 1.1), and since the beginning of the year capitalization has fallen by nearly $250 billion.
The Smith + Crown Index for the week decreased slightly from 24,952 to 20,158.

The dominance of the four and eight largest cryptocurrencies as of 03:00 UTC on March 11, 2018, equaled 73.3% and 80.6%, respectively, with bitcoin dominance edging downward to 41.4% (see Table 1.1).

The capitalization of the cryptocurrency market dipped twice, on March 7 and 9 (see fig. 1), which may be connected with various events, including:

The demand by the SEC that cryptocurrency exchanges trading in tokens that meet the definition of a security under the Securities Act register with the Commission as national securities exchanges.

The hacker attack on the Binance Exchange, as a result of which funds were withdrawn from a number of accounts through the purchase of Viacoins (VIA), the price of which instantly increased by thousands of percent. In effect, this amounted to the pumping of Viacoin. Ultimately, it was the users that rely on trade bots who suffered (those who use API keys).

The announcement of the sale of $400 million in Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash by the trustee of the bankrupt Mt. Gox exchange and the possible sale of additional digital assets of the exchange in the amount of $1.8 billion (see Table 1.4).


Figure 1. Cryptocurrency market capitalization since February 1, 2018

Overall, during the period from March 5-11, 2018, the price of 27 of the top 500 cryptocurrencies and digital assets appreciated (or stayed the same), resulting in a decline in cryptocurrency market capitalization by approximately $100 billion.

Over the past week the number of cryptocurrencies with a capitalization of more than $1 billion decreased from 25 to 22, with the price of all of them falling (except Tether).
The coins and tokens from the top 500 that demonstrated the largest growth in prices are given in fig. 2.

The growth and fall of cryptocurrency prices over the past week (March 5-11, 2018)

The prices of some cryptocurrencies may fluctuate from -50% to +50% over the course of a single day. Therefore, when analyzing cryptocurrency price trends, it is advisable to use their average daily amounts on various cryptoexchanges.
Below we consider the top 10 cryptocurrencies that demonstrated the most significant change in price over the past week (fig. 2-3). In this regard, only those coins and tokens included in the top 500 in terms of market capitalization (according to the data of coinmarketcap.com) were considered.


Figure 2. Largest growth in prices over the past week

Tables 1.2 and 1.3 show the possible factors or events that could have influenced the fluctuation in prices for certain cryptocurrencies. Table 1.4 shows the possible factors or events that could have influenced the cryptocurrency market in general.

Table 1.2. Factors or events that could have led to a growth in cryptocurrency prices over the past week

A depreciation in price was seen for 473 coins and tokens of the top 500 cryptocurrencies and digital assets by capitalization over the past week. Out of the top 100, only Tether and Emercoin did not fall in price. Tether’s price is tied to the US dollar, and Emercoin appreciated by +2.2%, which is not a bad showing against the backdrop of an overall market depreciation by more than 20%. This growth may be partially due to the continuing joint Asian tour of the EmerCoin team and BitFury Group.

The ten cryptocurrencies that showed the most significant drops in price are shown in fig. 3.


Figure 3. Largest fall in prices over the past week

Table 1.3. Factors or events that could have led to a fall in cryptocurrency prices over the past week

Table 1.4 shows events that took place from March 5-11, 2018, and had an impact on both the prices of the dominant cryptocurrencies and the market in general, with an indication of their nature and type of impact.

Table 1.4. Key events of the week having an influence on cryptocurrency prices, March 5-11, 2018

To analyze trading activity on cryptocurrency exchanges, the ZAK-n Crypto index is calculated (see the Glossary). The values of the ZAK-4 Crypto and ZAK-8 Crypto indices are presented in Tables 1.1, 1.5.a, and 1.5.b. In early March the 24-hour trading volumes (Volume 24h) for the four dominant cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash, Ripple) equaled from $7.7 billion to $12.2 billion (Table 1.5.a). The value of the ZAK-4 Crypto fluctuated from 2.7% to 4.5%. These are high numbers, but only approximately half of what they were in January and February, when the index reached 10% (for example, at the time of the downward adjustment of the cryptocurrency market on February 6, 2018). This attests to a partial decline in the activity of the dominant cryptocurrencies on the market.

Table 1.5.a. Daily ZAK-4 Crypto index calculation (from March 1, 2018, to March 11, 2018)

The 24-hour trading volumes (Volume 24h) for the eight dominant cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash, Ripple, Litecoin, Stellar, NEO, and Cardano) equaled $9.8 billion by the end of last week (Table 1.5.b), i.e. 3.4% of their market capitalization. The ZAK-4 Crypto and ZAK-8 Crypto indices are considered in more detail in Tables 1.5.a and 1.5.b.

Table 1.5.b. Daily ZAK-8 Crypto index calculation (continuation of Table 1.5.а)

Despite the fall in cryptocurrency market capitalization over the past week, there was good news last week that could lead to growth in the future. A plan for forming a financial technology sector in 2018 was posted to the website of the EU. In particular, blockchain technology has been assigned an important role in the plan. In China, one of the participants in the largest Chinese advisory board on political issues suggested at a People’s Political Consultative Conference that the issue of creating a state cryptoexchange be considered.

Table 1.6 gives a list of events, information on which appeared last week, which could impact both the prices of specific cryptocurrencies and the market in general.

Table 1.6. Events that could have an influence on cryptocurrency prices in the future

1.2. Market trends

The weekly cryptocurrency and digital asset market trends from October 1, 2017, to March 11, 2018, are presented as graphs (Fig. 1.1-1.5)*.

Table 1.7. Legends and descriptions of the graphs


Figure 1.1. Total cryptocurrency market capitalization

Figure 1.1 shows a graph of the weekly cryptocurrency market change from October 1, 2017, to March 11, 2018. Over this period, market capitalization increased from $146.9 billion to $360.1 billion, a growth of 1,934% relative to the start of 2017. Therefore, everyone who entered the cryptocurrency market in early 2017 was able to receive high returns due to market growth. Since the beginning of 2018, those who have been speculating on a bear market have found themselves in the best position. Over the past week (March 5-11, 2018), capitalization decreased from $456.6 billion to $360.1 billion (as of March 11, 2018, based on the average figures from coinmarketcap.com).


Figure 1.2. Change in market capitalization

The market is susceptible to sudden and drastic fluctuations. The highest growth rate in Q4 2017 (December 17-24, 2017) was around $200 billion, or 54%. During the first week of January, market capitalization increased by approximately $250 billion, or 44%.

Already, seven of the first ten weeks in the first quarter of this year have been “in the red”, i.e. capitalization fell based on the results for the week. Last week the market shrunk again by nearly $100 billion, or 21% (with due account of average daily data, see fig. 1.2).


Figure 1.3. Number of cryptocurrencies and digital assets

Since the beginning of October 2017, the total number of cryptocurrencies and digital assets considered when calculating market capitalization has increased from 1,091 to 1,523. Their number remained practically the same over the last week, and average capitalization dropped from $300 million to $236.4 million. Over the past month, 58 new coins and tokens have appeared on coinmarketcap.com, but it should be noted that a number of other coins and tokens were also excluded from the list.


Figures 1.4 and 1.5. Forecast of total cryptocurrency market capitalization

Trading in bitcoin futures. In its weekly reports, which are usually published on Wednesdays, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows that on March 6, 2018, there were approximately two and a half times less “long” contracts, which reflect the clients’ expectation of a growth in the price, than there were “short” contracts, which reflect the clients’ expectation of a fall in price (and this has been the situation for the last six weeks). If you compare these data with the data on January 23, 2018 (seven weeks ago), the situation was the opposite (there were two times less “short” contracts), i.e. “long” contracts predominated on the Cboe. One can conclude that for the sixth week in a row most traders on this market expect the Bitcoin price to fall.

ICO Market Analysis (March 5-11, 2018)

1. General analysis of the ICO market (by week, month)

1.1. Brief overview of ICO market trends

The attitude toward ICOs in South Korea may change in the near future, as the possibility for legislative regulation and legalization of ICOs is being considered at the government level. We remind you that in September 2017 the Financial Services Commission of South Korea (following China’s lead) announced a ban on all forms of token placements.

Table 1.1. Brief ICO market overview, key events, news for the week of March 5-11, 2018

Table 1.2 shows the development trends on the ICO market since 2017. Only popular and/or successfully completed ICOs (i.e. ICOs which managed to collect the minimum declared amount of funds) and/or ICOs listed on exchanges were considered.

Table 1.2. Aggregated trends and performance indicators of past (completed) ICOs1

The data for 2017 and for January and February 2018 were adjusted to account for the appearance of more complete information on past ICOs. The amount of funds collected via ICOs during the past week (March 5-11, 2018) equaled $219.3 million. This amount consists of the results of 14 successfully completed ICOs, with the largest amount of funds collected equaling $48.8 million (Savedroid ICO). The average collected funds per ICO project equaled 15.7 million (see Tables 1.2, 1.3).

Table 1.3. Amount of funds collected and number of ICOs

Table 1.3 shows that the largest amount of funds was collected via ICOs in February 2018. The highest average collected funds per ICO was also seen in February 2018.


Figure 1.1. Trends in funds collected and number of ICOs since the start of 2017

1.2. Top ICOs of last week

Table 1.4 shows the ten largest ICOs of the week*

Table 1.4. Top 10 ICOs in terms of the amount of funds collected (March 5-11, 2018)

The data for last week (March 5-11, 2018) may be adjusted as information on the amounts of funds collected by completed ICOs is finalized.
The leader for the week was the Savedroid project. This is an investment platform for the creation of cryptocurrency portfolios, savings and purchasing of derivatives. Savedroid already launched its mobile savings app on the market in 2016. Users receive benefits from easy access to cryptocurrencies, and can take advantage of investment in crypto portfolios, futures and ICOs with a minimum of technological barriers.

Figure 1.2 presents the ten largest ICOs completed last week.


Figure 1.2. Top 10 ICOs in terms of the amount of funds collected (March 5011, 2018)

1.3. Top ICOs in their categories

The list of top ICOs by category is compiled with due account of the categories of the leading ICOs for the week.

Table 1.5. Top 10 ICOs in terms of the amount of funds collected, Trading & Investing category

The Savedroid and Spice Venture Capital projects were completed in March and are included in the top 10 ICOs in the Trading & Investing category. Two projects from the top 10 also completed their ICOs in February 2018.

At present, all projects from the top 10 in this category have a token performance indicator of 0.66x to 3.13x. The Enigma Catalyst ICO can be considered one of the most successful exchange listings, as this project has a current token price to token sale price ratio of 3.13x. When considering this indicator, it is important to remember that the Enigma Catalyst ICO was completed on September 11, 2017, i.e. the 3.13x growth took place over six months. The market capitalization of Enigma Catalyst currently exceeds $136 million.


Figure 1.4. Top 10 ICOs in terms of the amount of funds collected, Commerce & Advertising category

Last week (March 5-11, 2018) at least 14 ICO projects were successfully completed, each of which collected more than $100,000, with a total amount of funds collected of around $220 million. Last week’s leader was the Savedroid project ($48.8 million). The total amount of funds collected by a number of ICOs failed to reach even the $100,000 mark (the information for some projects is still being finalized).

The Glossary is given in the Annex.

Annex

Glossary


Slide01.jpg

Coin Marketplace

STEEM 0.35
TRX 0.12
JST 0.040
BTC 70351.33
ETH 3563.43
USDT 1.00
SBD 4.72