BTC and ETH comparison trading for 7/10/18

in #cryptocurrency6 years ago (edited)

For this post I am going to be using the same charts I used yesterday since price action did follow what my charts suggested. Yesterday I shorted ETH/USD and BTC/USD based off of overbought price/volume divergences.

Now the question becomes, should I be closing my positions and taking profits, or remain in my positions longer.

Here is a chart I talked about yesterday with a short term bullish correction (green) long term bearish correction (red) and a combination of the two in yellow.

2cmjjZrw.png

The idea here is that the lines are overbought, neutral or oversold. Yesterday I was quite bearish as we were already far above the upper yellow line. We were more overbought than the overbought trend line! This was as bearish as I could get, and sure enough, price took a tumble down into reality today.

Now, the correction we saw today may have made a good trade if you were in on it, but I am not convinced it's done. This correction only brought us back to the upper yellow line, which is still very overbought. It shouldn't just keep dumping though because the RSI will quickly bounce the price up into some sideways movement while it cools off.

I am still overall bearish on BTC, although I think it will take a decent chunk of time (as it always does) to play out.

Comparing that against ETH:

ETH is at a price point where I would expect some of the buying volume to show up. It has reached the downtrend's mean, and COULD be an area of a bounce. Will it bounce though? I suspect that BTC not reaching the middle point yet suggests that ETH will be following BTC's downtrend further to the center yellow line.

0V3G0mby.png

If you look close at this screenshot, you will also notice that we have broken bearish out of the green trends, adding more evidence that the bullish trend is over.

Even BTC right now has just hit the 200 hourly EMA, which should be an area of correction bullish, but I see no such evidence. Volume is suggesting that the price will break bearish through it without a ton of a fight.

In conclusion, I am basically saying, BTC's is not done going down, but is likely to move sideways for a while to let the RSI cool off. As it does, it will help ETH break it's support to make another leg down with it. I may be closing some of my BTC and ETH positions to catch bounces, but I will almost surely be reopening short positions again quickly.

Thanks for reading,

-Icee-

Please leave me an upvote, and remember this is not trading advice.

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Thank you for the chart

Alright, RSI is bottoming out, easy short. Now looking for signs of the bounce.

qg4UPNZB.png

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