Bitcoin Still undecided...but the bears are fighting hard.

I've been pointing out 3 possible scenarios for bitcoin the past couple days. All 3 of those paths are still possible, but there are bearish indications that need to be addressed.

We can see a very clear bear flag on the 1 hour chart.

This could indicate a drop is coming, and lends credibility to the more bearish scenarios. Let's review the 3 possible paths bitcoin may take.

The first scenario has it in 5 waves down, with wave 4 most likely complete. We would expect wave 5 to target $7,686, the 1.0 fibonacci level.

The second scenario has bitcoin in a WXY pattern, currently completing an ABC correction. The question here is whether or not wave B is complete. I've outlined a possible landing zone for this wave in orange. Once wave B completes (which it may already have), we'd expect wave C to target approximately $7,775. If this scenario is validated, I'll have a better idea of where wave C will land once I know exactly where wave B ended. Here's what this may look like:

The 3rd and final scenario is bullish. It has the ABC pattern complete, with wave 1 currently underway. A logical target for wave 1 would be approximately $9,300. As of now, the indicators don't favor this path, but it's still a possibility. This scenario may play out like this:

The 4 hour and 1 hour MACD both look rather bearish.

The 4 hour and 1 hour RSI both show a breached ascending support line. This is also a bearish indication that lends more credibility to the first 2 scenarios.

Zooming out to the Daily chart, we can see the 8 day EMA just crossed to the bottom of the 21 and 55 day EMA. This is another bearish indication.
If you're unfamiliar with how to use EMA's, reference my post on the topic here: https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@workin2005/simple-effective-strategy-to-buying-and-selling-market-trends

Looking at the daily candles, we can see yesterday's had a long wick on both the top and bottom. As my prior bitcoin analysis suggested, this indicates an epic battle between the bull and bears. Today's candle so far is looking like the bears are winning...but let's see how it closes.

Some people continue to ask whether they should buy or sell. Please remember, I can't tell you what to do. I'm not a financial advisor. It's completely up to you to decide if and when to buy or sell. With that said, I can tell you what I'm doing. Personally, I'm holding about 25% of my portfolio in coins with strong fundamentals that I strongly believe in. I won't sell those coins for at least another year...no matter what the price does. The other 75% of my trading funds are mostly in fiat. I make small trades here and there as I see opportunities, but I'm not making any major trades at the moment. There's too much uncertainty in the market.

BIAS:
Short Term: Neutral to bearish.
Longterm: Very Bullish

I hope this has been helpful. I’d be happy to answer any questions in the comment section below. Thanks for stopping by.

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Disclaimer: I am NOT a financial advisor and this is NOT financial advice. Please always do your own research and invest responsibly.

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