The forecast for the currency pairs GBP / USD and EUR / USD for November 30, 2018

in #currency5 years ago

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EUR / USD
The EUR / USD quotes remained virtually unchanged at the close of the trading session on Thursday, reaching a mark of 1.1385 by the end of the day.

The EUR / USD pair, which showed the worst one-day percentage decline on Wednesday from November 1, rebounded from a speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell amid the news context. The European currency reacts negatively to the likelihood of imposing tariffs on all cars imported to the USA, the damage from which will be received primarily by German automakers. This measure may reduce economic growth in the European Union from the current 1.6% to 1.2-1.3%.

The growth of the European stock market after the stress test conducted by the Bank of England under the Brexit scenario, passed by all banking institutions of the FTSE 100, slowed the decline in the European currency.

Macroeconomic indicators determined the dynamics of the pair. On Thursday, data on the change in the number of unemployed in Germany in November became known. Their number decreased by 16,000, with an expected 10,000, which was a positive catalyst for the euro.

On Friday, data on inflation in the Eurozone will be known. They can be a support for the euro, since lately they usually meet the expectations of analysts, are stable even with negative values, and therefore do not bear risks for the market. Also will be the release of data on the unemployment rate in the Eurozone, which can give impetus to the European currency. This indicator shows a permanent decline since October 2013, when unemployment during the crisis reached a peak of 12.2%, up to 8.1% in the past reporting period.

In my forecast for Friday, I expect a continuation of the decline in the EUR / USD quotes to support levels of 1.1350, 1.1325 and 1.1300.

GBP / USD
On Thursday, the pair GBP / USD was moving downward. Having started trading at 1.2840, it moved to a value of 1.2780.

Yesterday the minutes of the last meeting of the Federal Reserve System, which supported the dollar, were made public. Traders perceived it positively because it turned out that all members of the Open Market Committee support further rate increases, although the policy of the regulator for 2019 remains uncertain. Prospects for improvement will be largely determined by data on employment and inflation in the United States.

The growth potential of the pound was limited because of the words of the authorized representative from the European Union for Brexit Michel Barnier that the negotiations were completed, this variant of the agreement is the best possible and it is necessary to proceed to ratification as soon as possible. Recall that the optimal current version is considered by no means all, and first of all, members of the British Parliament.

On Thursday, the index of pending sales in the real estate market in October in the USA was published. Being a leading indicator, he outlined the weakness of this sector of the economy in the reporting period, the index decreased to a level of 2.6%, with an expected growth of 0.8%. This release has caused a negative reaction from traders, manifested in a corrective pullback of the dollar during trading.

On Friday, the Nationwide house price index in the UK may negatively affect the British currency rate, which has been declining since August of this year, and last month reached a minimum level starting in May 2013, when this indicator first began to switch to corrective growth after finding in the negative zone since the second quarter of 2012.

In my forecast for today, I expect a further decline in the GBP / USD pair to support levels of 1.2760, 1.2740 and 1.2710 amid continuing uncertainty over Brexit.

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ATTENTION! This article cannot be considered as investment advice! Always remember that investments in currencies are associated with increased risk and any investment should be approached very carefully. Just pay your attention that the responsibility for making a decision lies only with you. Please consider all these risks when evaluating currency-related investments. Invest in currency only the money that you can afford to lose.


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