When Kim cheats Trump

Basically, the failure of negotiations between Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un is not surprising. Almost all observers in the North Korean political scene believe that this country will never give up its nuclear weapons.

More surprisingly, the United States has entered into negotiations with North Korea, suggesting that Kim Jong-un could agree to such disarmament. The negotiations were not completely futile.

As Trump explained, the United States was a hairpin of a military conflict with North Korea. The specter of such a horrible war has gone a little further.

1. What was North Korea's proposal?

The country was ready to dismantle some of its nuclear facilities, perhaps to agree to a freeze on future nuclear facilities, but certainly not to abandon all its nuclear weapons.

The North Korean leaders seemed convinced that the Trump government would agree to this kind of arrangement. It is impossible that the American negotiators were not to a certain extent in favor of such an agreement.

2. Why did the negotiations fail?

Most observers believe that the summit was poorly prepared and that too many important issues remained to be resolved. But Mike Pompeo, the US Secretary of State, may have revealed what really stalled the negotiations: North Koreans were very surprised at the extent of US information on their ultra-secret installations.

It may be thought that the Americans demanded that they be inspected or dismantled, which the North Koreans did not want.

3. Will negotiations come to an end?

It is not certain. Yesterday, on North Korean state television, the tone was conciliatory. But the country's deputy foreign minister has issued a bleak warning: it is not certain that Kim Jong-un is willing to continue negotiations. For his part, on the way back, Trump stopped in Alaska where he lauded the missiles that are pointed against North Korea.

4. What is the interest of North Korea to postpone the signing of an agreement?

Donald Trump's position in the United States and around the world is increasingly fragile. The longer North Korea delays the signing of an agreement, the more it can expect to obtain significant concessions from the United States.

In addition, China looks set to sign a new trade agreement with the United States. Such an agreement will give him free rein to further circumvent the US embargo against North Korea.

Indeed, the United States will probably not want to impose new sanctions on China because of its trade with North Korea.

5. Why could the North Korean leaders refuse to sign an agreement?

North Korean leaders want to keep a diet that serves them so well. Moreover, in recent years, China has taken an increasingly authoritarian, even totalitarian trajectory. What comfort the North Korean leaders in their choice. Finally, since the first sanctions, the regime has managed to modernize in part.

A parallel market economy has taken hold. North Korea may very well continue to survive despite sanctions. All in all, with the passing of time and with the negotiations that made Kim Jong-a more likely, the nuclearization of North Korea is becoming more and more a fait accompli.