Alu´s Future News Service No.8: The Bitcoin Mass Adaptation
Hello dear future-interested and glass ball fan,
it's finally time, the last bullrun is over and we're in crypto winter. I'm not talking about the current Bitcoin course and alleged bullrun. But about the turn of the year from 2017 to 2018. Why?
Quite simple. In the year 2017 I saw the third big run with many people in the crypto market and I had already once written that in March of this year 2017 a three-year event started. We are now in the last third of this event and we can be happy to read these lines and to have lasted so long.
In figures, there have been about 40 million active crypto buyers in high spirits in these last two years. The fact that we no longer have these figures on the market today is something even the great optimists will understand. There is perhaps a high price to be seen at the moment, but certainly not as many people. Not half as many people either. On the contrary. The figures, which can only be determined subjectively by everyone, are likely to be in the realistic range by a few million. See Steem, as a social free network and its active users as an example.
This development was foreseeable for a few and well calculated. The largest among us know exactly that a small revival is necessary in the still very young crypto market, in an "ice age". Just to lure potential new small investors and to draw the media's attention to the fact that Bitcoin's death has often been mentioned, but he is still alive and kicking. Last year, when the bear market began, I personally could hear astonishingly few, but nevertheless very unfortunate death cries. I regard that as a magical boundary. Because what I have in mind is mass adaptation. Only when most people absolutely want to have Bitcoin will I start to collect my "salary" and use it to pay for a few years of work.
Hop or Top, one might think. But for me this calculation is very simple. First it needed a Bitcoin for 1000 Dollar/Euro Fiat dirt, so that I could decide firmly to gain a permanent foothold in this network. In the meantime a lot has happened with these prices, as you know. 18k in its high have sounded very reasonable for me and I was glad that I did not misjudge myself with it. People all over the world have been hearing about the Bitcoin for weeks.
Surveys were then published showing that an estimated 70% of Westerners had heard the word Bitcoin before. A good start for mass adaptation. In the Asian area these numbers might have turned out parallel in the comparison around some higher. Only of it we get rather rarely something with. On the whole about 3% of mankind had a at least short-term direct share in the crypto market at the highest point in the mentioned turn of the year. Be it Bitcoin or Altcoin or even both, it doesn't matter.
It is about these people.
These approx. 40 million people will almost completely return in 2020 after the Halfing 2021. If it was only half in real terms, it was probably the first major relevant peak in the crypto market. Every real gambler and speculator will have realized that the Bitcoin thing would be unstoppable and has made the effort to stay in the market and maybe even work on bringing in his abilities. Most of them may have settled into trading and made good losses. A few have been active in mining and have fallen on their noses if they were not prepared to count at least two years in advance and advance the necessary money.
The last relevant group are developers, IT specialists and people like us here on the Steem who have recognized the non-plus-ultra of usability in their respective currencies and are working accordingly to bring it forward. The smallest part for me are the publicists who report on Youtube and Co. about what is happening in these markets. Most of the time they have only given up the monkey links or the good old farmer catchers in their heads and according to the low numbers of interested parties. You can see that well on the German market, I think. On the one hand we are in the number of people enough, in order to make meaningful estimates and on the other hand there are here many, which have the necessary small change by our still potent economic strength, in order to play in the crypto market.
The English-speaking market, serves less a good estimate, since every idiot (except me^^) speaks English and the conditions mix too much. The Asians remain anyway among themselves and the few Africans make it then again in English. The Spanish speaking countries are too busy with speeches and do not bring together the necessary capital seen in the masses. The Russians still remain, who rather "secretly" act and make simple.
So it's very clever to watch the Germans and Frenchmen if you want to estimate what's to come. I don't think I would have expected to find so many Germans (Yes I also mean the Ösis and Swiss^^) in the crypto market in the last years since 2013. Above all, there are more Bitcoin whales in our country than many would believe. But this is something else. We have the necessary brain, material and the eternal hunger of curiosity to keep ourselves busy with funny new ideas like the Blockchain.
All these people will come back in the next two to three years and bring many more.
We need the magical 10% of humanity to consider that the poor pigs of the poorest count less than one would wish from the bottom of one's heart. They usually don't even have access to the most necessary things like water and food, let alone being able to read and own a smartphone with internet access.
Roughly speaking, we will soon be writing 8 billion people around the world. So you can figure out for yourself when the mass adaptation will take place. I think between 2025 and 2030 I lie very well in the positively thought front area with it. It could go faster or slower by bigger influences like in the economy and the stock market, illegal wars on the part of the empire and the like of course. It won't take long. At least not long for people who can loosely wait a few years. I say who remains today and possesses only a quarter Bitcoin has in 10 years no more financial concerns, which he would not make himself.
Disclaimer:
The word already says itself. Who refers to my words and afterwards acts around me afterwards the debt for it to give, is to go to hell. I am not a trained financial advisor and would never take part in this joke.
Here I offer my own elaborate view and journey for almost nothing but "reward" to think about and expect that every adult can act according to his thinking.
Salve long days and pleasant nights
(SulTaN)
yours
Alucian
Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator
Der Übersetzer ist ja richtig gut. Bis auf die Affen Links die machen nur im Deutschen Sinn^^.
Sounds very reasonable and the interesting part is that masses can come abruptly from one day to another
Massen kommen manchmal abrubt wie die Lachse zur Paarungsstelle. Und dabei ist es egal was wir hier drinnen kommunizieren ob manche jammern, andere streiten andere den Steem unnötig in den Himmel loben bzw. soagr Unwahheiten verbreiten, nach innen in den Tümpel aknn man rufen was man will nach außen in Meer muss die Werbung schallen. Wie kamst du zu Steem? ...uhhm I mean, how do you came to Steem?
Same I wanted to write!
What was your way to steem?
Kann deepl auch ins chinesische Übersetzen ;) just fun. But it would be cool if this translator could do it.
Ach sollen doch die anderen mal ins Deutsche übersetzten. :-) Sehe gar nicht ein, das noch zu ändern.^^ Deppl ist ein korrupter Sauhaufen, behaupte ich nicht ganz ohne Grund. Mir gefallen die "Werbenden" Strukturen dahinter nicht. Aber er übersetzt wirklich gut. Dafür gehören mir die Texte jetzt dann auch nicht mehr wahrscheinlich. :-)
Was die Massen angeht, hatten wir noch keine im Kryptomarkt.^^ Irgendwann zählt wohl die Gruppendynamik und es wächst. Seltsames Verhalten und trotzdem logisch irgendwie. Einen schönen Steem Graph hast du da ausgegraben. Danke dafür. Zeigt das man sich um Kontent aktuell gut bemühen könnte. um damit ein wenig die Reputation zu pushen. Ganz wie erhofft sieht der Graph äußerst gesund aus. Ich mag den Steem und seine Nutzer einfach.^^
Ich dachte Ende 17 Steem sei ein Clon von Steam (Spieleplattform) auf Coinmarketcap. Dann hat es wieder gedauert, bis ich nochmal darauf gestoßen bin, mich das Proof of Stake und die vielen "Fake" Währungen aber abgeschreckt haben, zu viele Projekte ins Auge zu fassen.(Hatte eigentlich nur zwei bis Dato) Und der letzte Kick vor dem Anmelden war dann die Erwähnung vom Dennis in seinen Videos zum Steem.
Zu der Zeit war ich schon voll im Blockchainwahn gefangen. :-) Aber wie das so ist, habe ich mich auf die falschen Sachen konzentriert. Zum Glück aber auch die Finger vom Handeln gelassen. Hab auf die Stunde genau das tiefste Tief im ersten Halbjahr 18 gekauft. :-) Höhöhö^^
Ab da, wurde der Steem dann immer interessanter als Möglichkeit zu schreiben und gleichzeitig als Mining Ersatz für die Einnahmen. Die Anmeldung hat nur ewig gedauert und ich wusste damals noch nicht, wie ich an ein Konto komme ohne Kreditkarte oder ähnlichem. Das mir der Steem viele ungeklärte Probleme gelöst hat, die ich erst für meine späteren Lebensjahre angehen wollte habe ich nach ein paar Wochen geschnallt. Ein Plan wurde ausgedacht und ich halte mich ganz nett daran. Belohnung: Besser gelaufen als erhofft.
Plus
Bis der Steem mich wieder losbekommt, muss viel passieren.
Dafür stehe ich mit meinen "altem" Namen (Babynahrung löffelt)