Statistical Analysis Monday 4th June

in #gambling6 years ago

LISTOWEL 1.30

9/4 Sapphire Lady, 3/1 Timetoget, 9/2 Chisholm Trail,
11/2 Biddy The Boss, 6/1 Katie Connell, 14/1 Ayr Of Elegance,
16/1 Aimee Kate, 18/1 Sand Fly, 20/1 Sammyjade,
28/1 Annie Clouds, 50/1 Annie Burke, Multiviz,
66/1 Goulane Jessie, 100/1 Lyre Fun, Mary's Girl,
100/1 Urban Classic, 150/1 Lacouzette, Tsarina Sophia.

Mares Maiden Hurdles

Big field
5 runners dominate the market

SAPHIRE LADY drops from 2m 6f
Her last race was only 12 days ago
There is a statistical case against her

My angles in similar circumstances
Have some smoke and mirrors about them
I can show in similar races it may be a problem
But it could also been shown as a positive

For an example
If we look at 2m mares maiden hurdles
Any time of year since 2007

Horses aged 6
Coming from 2m 5f or more
Running within 18 days
Beaten under 10 lengths last time out
Have a W W record from 2 that tried
Ring Back (2007) Valrene (2012) both won
And they are the only 2 that tried to win

Both came from 2m 5f
SAPHIRE LADY drops from 2m 6f
So she isn't an exact match to that pair
But I see her more Neutral than negative
I'm inclined to see her as a saver bet

TIMETOGET ran well on her hurdle debut
But she was only a 50/1 chance that day
Which hardly suggests much confidence

BIDDY THE BOSS appealed more
By far the most experienced over hurdles
I'd rather side with her and save

Selection

Small Stakes

£7.00 Win BIDDY THE BOSS 7/2

£3.00 Win SAPHIRE LADY 2/1

NEWTON ABBOT 2.20

6/4 Grageelagh Girl, 11/4 Inessa, 7/2 Massini's Dream,
9/2 Silk Run, 25/1 Cautorillo, Flow From Devon,
33/1 Lady Wethered, Never Go Short, Shadow's Girl,
50/1 Lamh Ar Lamh, 66/1 Dancing Hearts,
100/1 Arthur's Queen, Dawn's Little Lady,
100/1 Delayed Reaction, Morning Sequel,
100/1 Princess Midnight.

Mares Maiden hurdle

Shapes like a horse race
None of the 4 can be ruled out
Uncomfortable with 2 of them

GRAGEELAGH is a 7yo
Comes from a bumper last Boxing day
Not a safe enough profile

If I look at Maiden and Novice Hurdles
Run between January and July
Any distance
Any gender of race
Horses aged 7
From bumper races
Absent more than 65 days
Have a 0-46 record
Nothing sparkling about that angle
Just don't see what the fuss is about
INESSA was last seen 275 days ago
When she was Racing in Germany
Can't rule her out but not for me

SILK RUN is the experienced horse
Hasn't set a very high standard
But would rather have her on side
As a saver to the hopeful selection
MASSINIS DREAM could be the one
Her trainer could well improve her

Selection

£8.00 Win Bet MASSINIS DREAM 11/4 -3/1

£2.00 Win Bet SILK ROAD 4/1

LISTOWEL 2.30

11/4 I'm Serious, 5/1 Shantou Sisu,
6/1 Northern Emperor, 15/2 Ice Ice Baby,
10/1 Whoyakodding, 12/1 Robin On The Hill,
14/1 Can't Be Done, Joly Maker, Jp Dundee,
14/1 Padraic O Conaire, 16/1 Its Only A Dream,
20/1 Lagenod, 25/1 Queen Oscar, 40/1 Mileys Dream,
40/1 Presenting Champ, 50/1 Katbart, Moyhree,
66/1 Dandy Bridge.

2m 4f Handicap Hurdle

Big and frightening field

I'M SERIOUS is topweight
He only has a rating of 95
His last Racing Post Rating 105
So you can see him as well treated
And capable of winning off 95

But he is a 5yo
He has to come up 4f in distance
And carry topweight as well
And from his sire I can't have him
I'M SERIOUS is sired by Art Connoisseur
A sire with a stamina index of 6.7f
A sire whose National Hunt runners
Over every code have a 0-56 record
I'M SERIOUS is opposed
You'd have to worry about stamina
ICE ICE BABY may not want this far

Educated Guesswork the only option
ROBIN ON THE HILL is a mare
Not for me with a 74 day absence
Similar races suggest recent runs help
IT'S ONLY A DREAM has 1 run in 201 days
NORTHERN EMPEROR 1 run in 201 days
He could be improving or on the bounce
JOLY MAKER is too young and underraced
CAN'T BE DONE can not sensibly be done
JP DUNDEE surely far too inexperienced
Beaten 38 lengths at 125/1 just 15 days ago
A profile that is leaving my quite queesy
I can shortlist only 3 horses

WHOYAKODDING
SHANTOU SISU
PADRAIC O CONAIRE

WHOYAKODDING is unorthodox
A 50/1 chance in a Hunter Chase last time
But there has been money for him
They are running here for a reason

SHANTOU SISU has potential
Only has 4 career starts though
If I look at all similar races
Horses with under 6 runs
Beaten last time out
Running within 22 days
I find a 0-40 record

Possibly a saver
But uncomfortable with his profile

PADRAIC O CONAIRE is interesting
Handicap mark of just 85
In 4 of his last 5 hurdle races
His Racing Post Ratings were higher
I think he needed his last 2 races
He had 152 days off at Limerick
Last time just 1 run in 168 days
Not surprised he looked like he blew up
But he hit the front two hurdles out
Not quite sure what to expect here
But he looked the strongest option

Selection

£3.50 Each Way PADRAIC O CONAIRE 12/1

£1.50 Win Bet WHOYAKODDING 7/1

£1.50 Win Bet SHANTOU SISU 6/1

GOWRAN PARK 3.45

5/6 Conclusion, 100/30 Spiorad,
5/1 Change Of Velocity, 9/1 Grovel,
16/1 Sigismund, 20/1 Regem,
33/1 Brandy James, 40/1 Chilterns,
50/1 Novel Character, Power Drive.

3yo Maiden over 9f

Last Fridays bet
Went down with a saddle slipping

CONCLUSION suffered the same last time
The book shows a 40 lengths defeat 9 days ago
But it was reported his saddle slipped

Hard to read
But has to be the most likely winner

I am going with a burglary bet
CHANGE OF VELOCITY is the horse
May only have the favourite to beat

SPIORAD the 3rd fav is unraced
Comes from the sire Invincible Spirit
Who has never bred an unraced winner
Over as far as 9 furlongs before
From an Excellent Art dam who won at 6f
No sensible reason to trust he will today

CHANGE OF VELOCITY lost 10 lengths last time
He looked like he went off too quicky
Given the 3rd favourite has breeding issues
The 4th favourite is unraced
He looks a sensible burglary bet

Selection

CHANGE OF VELOCITY 11/4

Each Way

LEICESTER 4.10

Evs Global Conqueror, 13/2 Stormer, Zain City,
7/1 Valyrian, 10/1 Clooney, 12/1 Life On Earth,
16/1 Gravina, 20/1 Imperial Court, 25/1 Langho,
33/1 Putto, 40/1 Alexanderthegreat,
50/1 Alliteration, Mutawaary.

8f Maiden

GLOBAL CONQUEROR looks the bet
Has a strong edge on these numbers

Racing Post Ratings

89 Global Conqueror
85 Global Conqueror
83 Global Conqueror
79 Stormer
74 Global Conqueror
73 Global Conqueror
72 Zain City
70 Global Conqueror
69 Zain City
35 Stormer

The main issues in this maiden race
Has he had enough chances already
Is he becoming a disappointment
Is he vulnerable to some improvers
Too early to see him as disappointing
I think he should have enough to win
The clue is in his Racing Post Rating
His best figure of 89 was last time out
Makes no sense to accuse any horse
Or disappointing after a career best

The likes of ZAIN CITY and STORMER
Have chances and should get better
But they mainly have Class 5 or 6 form
GLOBAL CONQUEROR offers us more
I quite like the split stake option here
GLOBAL CONQUEROR to win at 11/10
ZAIN CITY to place around 4/6 as well
Prices might not allow for that option

Selection

GLOBAL CONQUEROR 11/10

Win Bet

GOWRAN PARK 4.15

11/4 Kalaxana, 3/1 Echo Park, 4/1 Timiniya,
8/1 Side Effect, 10/1 Peace Approved,
14/1 Comeragh Haze, Maewyn, Mountjubilee,
16/1 Styler Label, 25/1 Fake Media,
28/1 Liffeydale Dreamer, 40/1 Belle Free,
50/1 Departures, New York Lady,
50/1 Spice Blossom, The Factory Girl.

Fillies Maiden over 9f-10f
80 similar races in June

EECHO PARK I can take or leave
Don't like that she started 33/1 last time
And go back to 2001
Gowran Park 9f races
Horses with under 5 runs
Drawn 14 or higher
Have a 0-56 record

SIDE EFFECT has raced once
Beaten 6 lengths 10 days ago
Statistically i can not rule her out
But her debut number was average
Feel she lacks positives
PEACE APPROVED has similar problems

KALAZANA has every chance
Probably does deserve to be favourite
But she could be in danger of bouncing
And at the prices
TIMINIYA each way may be better

She hasn't done much yet
But her 2 runs were excusable

Her debut was on heavy ground
I made her a negative that day
She failed a 0-56 breeding stat
She met experienced horses
Her stable were out of form
She had a horrible draw as well

Last time I made her a negative too
Based on a strange breeding angle
She failed a soft ground 0-26 sire stat
I can't fail her on those angles today
Not on faster ground with more runs
Stall 1 could be an issue
Not sure what to expect from her
She looks the sensible bet in the race

Selection

TIMINIYA 4/1

Each Way

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