Statistical Analysis Saturday June 9th

CATTERICK 1.45

11/8 Chapelli, 7/2 Primeiro Boy, 5/1 Arishka,
10/1 Raypeteafterme, 11/1 Amazing Alba,
12/1 Tobeeornottobee, 16/1 Hey Jazzy Lady,
16/1 Hurricane Speed, 25/1 Champagne Mondays,
50/1 Lincoln Red.

2yo Novice over 5f

CHAPELLI is the favourite
He is unraced and has 2 question marks

His sire is Poet's Voice
This sires 5f debutants are 1-27
The only winner in a 5 runner race
Out of a Singspeil mare this may be sharp
My biggest problem though is his draw
As unraced horses don't do well drawn high

Catterick 5f races
Since 2001
Any time of year
Unraced horses
Drawn 8 or more
Have a 0-59 record
CHAPELLI shares this 0-59 angle

Happy to oppose him Chapelli
The problem is the right alternative

PRIMEIRO BOY is an obvious one
Looks quite interesting each way 4/1
His debut was not that impressive
Neither via his numbers or visually
We could get the favourite beat
PRIMEIRO BOY may also fail as well
And we could see any debutant win
Limited evidence for all these 2yo's

ARISHKA ran quite well on debut
The trainers unraced 2yo's are 0-40
So now She has some experience
She should make his presence known

Selection

The main aim here
Try and get the favourite beat
And guess the right alternatives

£4 Each Way ARISHKA 5/1

£2 Win Bet PRIMEIRO BOY 4/1

BEVERLEY 2.05

7/4 Alrahaal, 100/30 Jathi,
11/2 The Night Porter, 6/1 Mr Gent,
7/1 Burford Brown, Rampant Lion,
33/1 Tweeting.

3yo Maiden over 7f + 96 yards

ALRAHAAL sets the standard
Having has 2 runs in 2018
His slow burning trainer
Will hopefully have him fit now

ALRAHAAL ran very well last time
Career best Racing Post Rating of 81
That was in a 0-91 Doncaster Handicap
That was a very creditable run
It was up in distance for starters
He was drawn 1 in a tough handicap
It was his Handicap debut as well
And he hit the front a furlong out

He should beat most/all of these
BURFORD BROWN has low numbers
He looks an unlikely stayer to me

JATHI is unraced
Hard to commit to him here
Conceding so much experience
This track is rough for unraced horses

May June July
Beverley 3yo Maidens
Any distance
There are 54 of these races
53 of the 54 winners had a run
Unraced winners were just 1-54
JATHI shares this 1-54 profile

THE NIGHT PORTER has 1 run
He needs a lot of improvement on that
And 33/1 for his debut at lowly Brighton
Hardly makes him look a hot prospect
RAMPANT LION has 368 days off
TWEETING has 351 days off
We should beat those with recent runs
MR GENT could be a danger
Hasn't set a great standard after 6 runs

ALRAHAAL can win this
He is the only positive option
I could chuck in a cheap saver
I will given connections and the market

Selection

£8.50 Win Bet ALRAHAAL 13/8

£1.50 Win Bet RAMPANT LION 7/1

CURRAGH 2.10

9/4 Decrypt, 5/2 Cardini, 7/1 Vidiyni,
8/1 I Remember You, Kafu, 12/1 Invincible Karma,
12/1 Muntahez, 14/1 All The King's Men, Gotohawkeye,
16/1 Dandy Belle, 20/1 Sunday Scholar,
25/1 Lady Kaya, 33/1 Hammersmith,
50/1 Hillwalker.

6f Maiden

The 3 market leaders
All come from the same race
6f Curragh maiden 13 days ago

DECRYPT was 2nd
VIDIYNI was 3rd
CARDINI was 6th

DECRYPT just doesn't convince
He could get outstayed here
Not convinced he stays 6f last time

CARDINI probably needed the run
He has the best connections
And he started favourite in that race

I REMEMBER YOU didn't appeal
Not an unraced filly drawn 14 of 14
INVINCIBLE KARMA could be the one
But no money for him whatsoever
VIDIYNI is probably the value
Without being an each way steal
Going to play it this way

Selection

Low Stakes

£3.50 Each Way VIDIYNI 7/1

£3.00 Win Bet CARDINI 9/4

CATTERICK 2.20

5/2 Kibaar, 11/4 Pearl Noir, 3/1 Mr Strutter,
4/1 Perfect Words, 10/1 Andys Girl,
16/1 Grandad Chunk, 20/1 Thornaby Princess,
33/1 Roman Times, 66/1 Kirkby's Phantom.

5f Handicap
Low Grade stuff

What we Iack here is fancied negatives
Plenty I can criticise from bigger prices
ANDY'S GIRL for example is short of runs
GRANDAD CHUNK's numbers too low

KIBAAR should go well
I can see the narrative for him
He is obviously well handicapped now
But not sure he should be the favourite
If you look at his Racing Post Ratings
Recent runs of 45 46 50 35 48 50 0 38
These are worryingly low numbers
Numbers not matching his narrative

PERFECT WORDS is quite similar
Like many better numbers in the past
Easy to make a case for him on paper
But current numbers are just average

PEARL NOIR and MR STRUTTER
Their two closest rivals on paper
Have just done better ratings of 60
Both of them ran in separate divisions
Of big field 5f handicaps at Beverley
I liked both runs on video as well
They may offer more than others

Shortlist

MR STRUTTER
PEARL NOIR

I could bet one save on the other
Decided to bet one each way instead

Selection

PEARL NOIR 3/1- 100/30

Each Way

MUSSELBURGH 2.30

11/2 El Astronaute, 7/1 Major Jumbo, 8/1 Move In Time,
9/1 Merhoob, 10/1 Dark Shot, Line Of Reason, Soie D'Leau,
11/1 Orion's Bow, 12/1 Copper Knight, 14/1 Mayleaf Shine,
16/1 Orvar, 16/1 Caspian Prince, Ornate, 20/1 El Hombre,
20/1 Fendale, 33/1 Excessable.

5f Sprint
Class 2 race

You can send yourself potty here
Bore yourself to death with the variables
What Draws are good or unacceptable
Are high draws good but bad if your held up
Luck in running is a massive factor
And we can not begin to predict any of that
Makes proofing horses a waste of time

One angle I could use is about 10 year olds
Class 2 Handicaps over 5f
Any Time of year since 2005
Show horses aged 10 or more
Absent more than 2 weeks
Have a 0-69 record all year rond
MOVE IN TIME has this problem
His profile is simply not safe enough
I could use some draw statistics
MERHOOB drawn 1 has challenges
DARK SHOT is drawn 17 of 17
No winners here were drawn so high
I could/should avoid the horses
Who have raced just once this year
COPPER KNIGHT has this problem
SOIE DIEAU also has this problem
MAYLEAF SHINE also has this problem

The angle I would use in a messy race
Is last time out Racing Post Ratings
Two horses have superior numbers
And escape any of the above problems

EL ASTRONAUTE 6/1
MAJOR JUMBO 9/1

Both come from the same race
Quite a good trial race for this
On last time out Racing Post Ratings
EL ASTRONAUTE comes out best
He has a 3lbs edge on this field
He has just done a lifetime best number
And drom Stall 17 of 19 at York
5f races at York since 2011
Horses drawn 17 or more were 0-90
That shows he had a difficult challenge
Yet to produce a lifetime best in that race
And a number 3lbs better than the others
Earns him the right to be the selection
EL ASTRONAUTE ran in last years race
Tracked over from stall 5
I think he went off too fast
Led before fading into 7th
He is better drawn this year
He is a better horse this year

Selection

£4.50 Each Way EL ASTRONAUTE 5/1

£1.00 Win Bet MAJOR JUMBO 9/1

NEWMARKET 3.05

5/2 Georgian Manor, 7/2 Yafta,
5/1 Cavatina, 8/1 Stormbringer, 9/1 Fake News,
12/1 Rufus King, 14/1 Red Roman, Soldier's Minute,
16/1 Grand Koonta, Maksab, 33/1 Count Otto.

3yo Handicap over 7f
June has only 18 of these races

RUFUS KING has topweight
He won't find it easy to win off 103
All 18 winners were rated 96 or less

He is not really running well enough
He needs a career best on figures
And well exposed with 14 career runs
He gives weight to improving horses

YALTA's has a handicap mark of 100
All 18 winners were rated 96 or less
His main problem is stamina
Warning signs in his pedigree

Look at the 18 similar races
All 18 winners had at least 5 runs
Those with under 5 runs were 0-55
That seems quite a significant angle
Lightly raced horses have not done well

FAKE NEWS only has 4 runs
Throw in a 91 break he is unsafe
SOLDIER'S MINUTE fails this 0-55 angle
GEORGIAN MANOR fails it as well
He only comes from a maiden race
He could win but is a bit short of runs

MAKSAB is up 2 Grades in Class
Horses that managed that were different
Lighter raced and ran better last time
RED ROMAN may need another run
GRAND KOONT didn't do enough last time

Shortlist

CAVATINA won last time
She is the only filly in the race
That knocks points off her score

STORMBRINGER has positives
If he repeats his last run
He should not be far away

Selection

£4.20 Each Way STORMBRINGER 15/2

£1.50 Win Bet CAVATINA 7/1

BEVERLEY 3.15

11/4 No Lippy, 3/1 Wedding Date, 7/1 Kodyanna,
8/1 Pearl Of Qatar, 9/1 Dame Gladys, Good Tyne Girl,
10/1 Vikivaki, 20/1 Lady Prancealot, 25/1 Deia Glory,
Gypsy Spirit, 33/1 Alicia Darcy, Antico Lady,
66/1 Josiebond.

Hilary needler is for 2 year old Fillies
Dowgraded in 2013 from a Listed race

Not a race I want to commit to
Looking at getting a shortlist

Just a few minor angles
Horses with 1 run
Beaten last time were 0-21
Horses beaten 5 + lengths last time out
Return a 0-24 record in this race
No winners were drawn 11 or higher
None came from Class 2-3 races
There were 3 that I could shortlist
In no particular order

DAME GLADYS 11/1
GOOD TYNE GIRL 8/1
WEDDING DATE 3/1

No Selection

MUSSELBURGH 3.45

2/1 Knight In Armour,
11/4 Ventura Gold, 4/1 Kirbec,
4/1 Rita's Man, 10/1 Thunderhooves.

9f Handicap

5 runers

RITAS'S MAN is a 4 year olds
All other runners are 3 year olds

Pointless looking at age stats
As 80% of the field are 3 year olds
In a small field it can not help much

If you look at last time out numbers
RITAS'S MAN comes out top
Not significant as he is topweight
But he also has the shortest absence

RITAS'S MAN has a 3 day break
His 4 main rivals absent 19 + days

RITAS'S MAN each way appeals a bit
Partly because of his fitness
Partly as others have problems

KIRBEC is a 3yo filly absent 213 days
Running over a trip she's never tried
THUNDERHOOVES has question marks
He only has 3 career starts
And just 1 this year starting at 100/1

VENTURA GOLD comes from 7f
He has to go up 2 furlongs in distance
That damages his profile a bit
Throw in a worrying breeding stat
VENTURA GOLD is sired by Red Jazz
Horses sired by Red Jazz
Running over a mile or more
Have so far returned a 0-52 record
VENTURA GOLD has to overcome that
And he is running over almost 9 furlongs

KNIGHT IN ARMOUR is another 3yo
He drops down from an extended 12f
To around 9f which is a 3f drop in trip
That cold potentially hurt his chance
And he has a 49 day absence as well

Any of these 3 year olds could win
But they all had stiff obstacles

RITA'S MAN in contrast does not
I am thinking if we bet him each way
He only has to finish 2nd not to lose
We are protected if a 3yo does win
As long if he does managed to be 2nd

Selection

RITA'S MAN 7/2

Each Way

1/4 Odds 1,2

BEVERLEY 4.25

5/2 Bollin Ted, 3/1 Detachment, 4/1 Zlatan,
7/1 Bit Of A Quirke, 8/1 Dream Free, 12/1 Aelius,
14/1 Ascot Week, 14/1 Bromance.

10f Handicap

This is messy but has possibilities

DETACHEMENT has a questionable profile
Because he steps up from 7f to 10f
Not the kind of profile I would want

This is interesting

May June July since 2007
10f Handicaps
Any Class of race
Horses aged 5 or more
Coming from 7f or shorter
Running within the last 4 weeks
Return a 0-140 record
DETACHEMENT shares this 0-140 profile

If we get DETACHMENT beaten
Then ZLATAN starts to look interesting

ZLATAN is a 76 rated horse
And he has won in better class
And off a higher mark than 76
ZLATAN then rated 76
Only has a 0-66 class field

All his rivals bar Detachment
Have ratings of 66 or lower

If we look at Racing Post Ratings
ZLATAN is comfortably clear

Had this been a mile race
ZLATAN would be a confident bet
But he has never ran over 10f before
And I can not be sure he will stay this far
If he does stay he is the class horse
His stamina is the unknown factor

He may place even if not staying
So ZLATAN each way is appealing
So too is a win bet and saver
The saver the inform BOLLIN TED
Decided to play the race this way

Selection

£7 Win Bet ZLATAN 7/2

£3 Win Bet BOLLIN TED 5/2

AMERICA

Belmot Park 11.45

Belmont Stakes 12f

10/11 Justify, 4/1 Hofburg, 8/1 Bravazo,
9/1 Vino Rosso, 10/1 Tenfold, 20/1 Blended Citizen,
25/1 Gronkowski, 33/1 Noble Indy, 50/1 Free Drop Billy,
50/1 Restoring Hope.

Triple Crown
Highly unusual to do this race
But there is a modest field
Plenty of outsiders as well
It is not an unfriendly race

JUSTIFY tries to create history
He is trying to win the Triple Crown

I am going to oppose him
Not easy to win the Triple Crown

Since the Second World War
It was only done in four seasons
2015 1978 1977 1973

That tells us it is quite rare
JUSTIFY also has to prove his stamina
By Scat Daddy maybe there is a doubt

Stall 1 worries me the most though
Horses drawn 1 have struggled
Winning in only 1997 1992 1973
20 years since Stall 1 won this race

JUSTIFY does have some concerns
Horses beaten in the Kentucky Derby
Have often come out and won this
The 2017 and 2016 winners both did
HOFFBURG looks the play each way

Selection

HOFFBURG 7/2-4/1

Each Way