Statistical Analysis Sunday 13th March

in #gambling6 years ago

KILLARNEY 1.20

7/2 Dreamtide, 9/2 Ilikedwayurthinkin,
11/2 Waterville Dancer, 6/1 Gold Seal, 13/2 Slaney Street,
7/1 Bolbec, 10/1 Bertoni, 20/1 Roman Rock, 25/1 Moonball,
25/1 Wake Up Early, 33/1 Casamicciola, 33/1 Ebtkaar,
40/1 Bombay Basil, Desert Grey, 50/1 Ballyhubbock,
50/1 Dubaimolly, Getaway Gold, Shedding.

2m 1f Maiden Hurdle for 4 year olds

22 similar races in May

DREAMTIDE is a filly
Willie Mullins and absent 319 days
Statistically that is a problem

February through to August
Novice and Maiden Hurdles
Fillies aged 4
Absent more than 99 days
Have a 1-153 record
They are 0-102 in Maiden Hurdles like this
DREAMTIDE has this profile

Horses with 1 run
Have a 0-43 record in these races
GOLD SEAL has this problem
BERTONI is unraced and opposable
ROMAN ROCK unraced and opposed too

BOLBEC has an absence
Makes no particular appeal
Wouldn't be my first choice
Without any particular market support
SLANEY STREET is an exposed flat horse
Has been off the track a few months
If I look at similar 4yo hurdle races
Run over any distance April to May
Horses with over 14 career starts
Absent more than 72 days
Have a 0-28 record
SLANEY STREET shares this profile
Not sure he is the right type for this
Only 2 horses are shortlistable

Shortlist

ILIKEDWAYURTHINKING
WATERVILLE DANCER

ILIKEDWAYURTHINKING has 2 runs
Both over hurdles and could improve
WATERVILLE DANCER has 11 runs
Including more over hurdles
I much prefer his kind of profile
Interesting he started odds on last time
The Racing Post accuse him
Of not producing what he should be
They have a point but early days still
And rated as high as 79 on the flat
Tells us he has a lot of natural ability
Watched his last race at Kilbeggan
Think the Racing Post were unfair
But he is not the biggest of horses
That does worry me. Don't like it
But makes some of his earlier defeats
More understandable on heavy ground
The least risky most sensible option

WATERVILLE DANCER 9/4

If available at 5/2
I'd personally be tempted each way
You could also go for a saver
£7.50 Win Waterville Dancer
£2.50 Saver Ilikedwayurthinkin 3/1

Option 1 though is the each way single
That would be my personal preference
Depends on how you prefer to bet

Selection

WATERVILLE DANCER 9/4

LEOPARDSTOWN 2.05

3/1 Conclusion, 9/2 Crimson Mystery,
5/1 Tremendous Leap, 11/2 Razoul,
6/1 Bucky Larson, Swiss Cottage,
10/1 California Jumbo, 12/1 Novel Character,
20/1 Vocal Relation, 33/1 Alpine Peak,
40/1 Ashqar.

3yo Maiden over a mile

SWISS COTTAGE sets the standard
On his 2yo form over 7 furlongs
He has comfortably the best numbers
This is a Mile though and another season
I have serious doubts about him staying
With Swiss Spirit the sire
Who has yet to breed a mile winner
College Chapel the damsire was a sprinter
Who never raced over a mile or more
Just did not look a pedigree I could trust
I'll be surprised if he wins this race

CONCLUSION is the next best on numbers
Aidan O'Brien yet to win from 3 races
Looks like he ran out of fitness last time
It was heavy ground first time out

TREMENDOUS LEAP has this profile
3yo Maidens in May
Male horses
1 career start
Coming from 7f
Running within 18 days
Return a 0-34 record
TREMENDOUS LEAP has this profile
Some did win like him in April and June
So not sure how strong that statistic is
But I prefer his fathers horse

CONCLUSION is the selection
I see a 3rd favourite who may not stay
I see a few horses I can not rate well
If CONCLUSION had been around 5/2
Then he would be an an each way single
Doubt we are going to get that price
Option 2 could be an each way double

Selection

Leopardstown 2.05 - CONCLUSION 2/1

Killarney 2.20 - LAGOSTOVEGAS 6/4

Each Way Double

KILLARNEY 2.20

13/8 Lagostovegas, 2/1 Stormy Ireland,
9/2 Good Thyne Tara, 14/1 Creation, Shimmer's Rock,
16/1 Avellino, 20/1 Flaviana, 33/1 Glendine River.

Mares Hurdle in Listed Class
Willie Mullins should win this
He trains the 3 market leaders

Racing Post Hurdle Ratings

146 Lagostovegas - Lagostovegas
145 Lagostovegas
143 Lagostovegas
140 Lagostovegas
136 Stormy Ireland
135 Lagostovegas - Good Thyne Tara
134 Stormy Ireland
132 Good Thyne Tara
130 Good Thyne Tara
129 Good Thyne Tara
128 Lagostovegas - Good Thyne Tara
126 Stormy Ireland
125 Lagostovegas
124 Shimmer's Rock

LAGOSTOVEGAS is well clear
He has the best numbers by some way
The question is will something improve past time

STORMY ISLAND comes here F UR
Fell at the last in the Triumph hurdle
Did the same at Punchestown's festival
STORMY ISLAND is only a 4yo
Not prepared to risk a 4yo
No matter how talented
Who comes here after 2 heavy falls
Against a horse two years old
Who has serious numbers
If you look at his Racing Post Ratings
LAGOSTOVEGAS comes here 146 146
Those numbers win every renewal easily
They are comfortably clear of anything
GOOD THYNE TARA is the 3rd favourite
But he is an 8 year old
He has raced just once in 168 days
LAGOSTOVEGAS just looks stronger

Selection

LAGOSTOVEGAS 6/4

Win Bet

LONGCHAMPS 2.35

15/8 Wootton, 5/2 Olmedo, 5/1 Dice Roll,
7/1 U S Navy Flag, 14/1 Hey Gaman, 16/1 Francesco Bere,
Il Primo Sole, 20/1 Kings Shield, 25/1 Louis D'Or,
33/1 Magic Bibou, 66/1 Infernal Majesty.

French 2000 Guineas

11 Runners
In terms of Racing Post Ratings
The Minimum requirement
Historically is a rating of 106

Past winners Racing Post Ratings
Achieved before they won the race
115 106 111 117 112 108 114 112 112 92 108
109 124 117 106 121 116 120 112 117
19 of the last 20 winners
Had a Racing Post Rating of 106 or more
There are 6 horses who do not have that
Infernal Majesty and Louis D'Or have not
Magic Bibou and Il Primo Sole fall short
As do Francesco Bere and Kings Shield

Should be a 5 horse race

US NAVY FLAG is not sage enough
Big chance he hasn't trained on
A risk associated with his sire
He's run two poor races in a row
I don't like his drawn in stall 11 of 11

HEY GAMAN is not my first choice
DICE ROLL is fancied each way
Not sure I can rely on his stamina
Sires pattern winners were over shorter

WOOTTON won the Prix Fontainebleau
OLMEDO was 2nd in a photo finish

OLMEDO's trainer Jean-Claude Rouget
Has said in the French Press this week
This pair are the best 3yo colts in France
They are "clearly superior to the rest"
Both come from the best trial race for this

WOOTTON has 3 runs
OLMEDO has 4 runs

That could make some difference
Past winners had the following runs
5 2 3 5 5 4 6 4 8 4 3 5 4 6 4 7 4 6 4 5 4

Only 2 of the last 21 winners had 3 runs
But 8 of the last 21 winners had 4 runs
OLMEDO looks safer statistically
He also offers us an each way option
WOOTTON does look the stronger stayer
That is my main concern about Olmedo
But the numbers and frame of the race
Suggest thats the percentage bet here

Selection

OLMEDO 5/2 - 11/4

Each Way

LEOPARDSTOWN 3.10

7/4 Magical, 9/2 Mary Tudor, 6/1 Ballet Shoes,
6/1 Chiara Luna, Who's Steph, 14/1 Alghabrah,
16/1 Dawn Delivers, 20/1 Harvestfortheworld,
20/1 Shekiba, 25/1 Drombeg Dream,
33/1 Ship Of Dreams, 33/1 Damselfly.

Irish 1,000 Guineas Trial

Not confident what will win

MAGICAL for example is hard to read
Coming from a seasonal debut in France
She has the best numbers in the race

Past renewals of this race
Tell me a couple of things
CHIARA LUNA is too inexperienced

There is a long term angle in this race
Discovered many years ago by Nick Mordin
That suggests a strong correlation
Between this race and the Weld Park Stakes
A 2yo race run at Naas last September 24th
The number of past winners of this
That took in that race is extraordinary
Hardly any have tried in the last few years
But in 2005 2006 2007 2008 2010 2012 2013
The winners all took in this juvenile race

Perhaps more interesting than significant
But decided to ressurect this angle this year

MARY TUDOR took in that race
BALLET SHOES also ran in that race

Going to assume as the O'Briens 2nd string
BALLET SHOES may be not be a safe bet

Rather than go each way
Decided to play the race this way

Selection

£6.50 Win MARY TUDOR 3/1

£3.50 Win MAGICAL 2/1

LONGCHAMPS 3.15

3/1 Polydream, 4/1 Musis Amica, 5/1 Barkaa,
10/1 Coeur De Beaute, Wind Chimes, 12/1 Could It Be Love,
12/1 Mission Impassible, 14/1 Sea Prose, 20/1 Capla Temptress,
20/1 Ellthea, Zonza, 25/1 Teppal, 33/1 Moisson Precoce,
33/1 Red Line.

French 1000 Guineas

Much harder than the colts race
Last year we had a 33/1 shock winner
Before that in all previous years
The Racing Post Ratings of winners
Achieved before the race was this
92 106 110 108 110 114 109
117 114 115 105 107 117 101
Until last years winner did a 92 rating
You have always need a rating of 101 +
I'm still going to use that angle this year
RED LINE and TEPPAL have not done that
Neither has COULDN'T BE LOVE either

POLYDREAM has been Ante Post favourite
She is a seasonal debutant absent 224 days
That could well be a problem in this race
Past winners had the following runs that year
2 1 1 1 0 1 1 2 1 1 1 3 1 2 2 1
15 of the last 16 winners had runs that year
The only horse that didn't had 5 runs
POLYDREAM only has 3 career runs
Without a recent run looking elsewhere
CAPLA TEMPTRESS also lacks a 3yo run
ELTHEA is a seasonal debutant as well

MUSIC AMICAIN is the least experienced
She has only had 2 previous races before
Past winners had the following lifetime runs
5 6 3 5 3 3 6 5 3 2 5 6 4 5 3 4 3 9
The only winner with 2 runs Darjina in 2007

MISSION IMPASSIBLE looks beatable
MOISSON PRECOCE doesn't offer enough
COEUR DE BEAUTE has the worst draw
ZONZA has won 3 races all over 5 furlongs
There is a stamina risk with her

SEA PROSE has a chance
She is her trainers second string
But with 3 runs I like others more
WIND CHIMES has also ran 3 times
Not overkeen on her draw 13 of 14

BARKAA has a decent last time figure
I like the fact She has 5 career runs
3 of the last 4 winners had 5 + runs
She has 3 runs this season as well
That may or may not be an advantage
But each way she does have positives

Selection

BARKAA 6/1

Each Way

KILLARNEY 3.25

2/1 Bunk Off Early, 11/4 Pravalaguna,
6/1 Dr Mikey, 7/1 Le Martalin, 17/2 Hardback,
9/1 Ornua, 16/1 Templemore Dream,
25/1 Chatham Street Lad, 33/1 Jefferson Davis,
33/1 Mon Lino, 40/1 Ballyegan Hero,
50/1 Cloudybackwest, 66/1 Golden Sunset,
66/1 Hickey's Rock.

BUNK OFF EARLY has 2 Chase runs
Racing Post Ratings of 137 and 143
That sets quite a decent standard

Much harder to read after his last 2 runs
Both of these were over hurdles
But he has still run two decent chase races

When you consider his main two dangers
PARAVALAGUNA is a Mare
Who has never ran in a Chase before
DR MIKEY is a 9yo on his Chase debut as well
There could be a bit of strength in depth
A few like LE MARTALIN have a chance

BUNK OFF EARLY on his last hurdle run
Produced a career best Racing Post Rating
Chances are he didn't stay 2m 4f over hurdles
BUNK OFF EARLY is sired by Zebedee
A horse with a stamina index of 6.5f

I can't seal the deal
Or know enough about all of these
But I don't see a sensible alternative

Selection

BUNK OFF EARLY 7/4

I'd make sure if playing
I didn't lose if he were to win
He should beat Pravalaguna
He should beat Dr Mikey
His price is plenty short enough
And I can't get excited about him
But I see no sensible alternative

SOUTHWELL 4.05

11/10 Truckers Lodge, 11/4 Sonic,
5/1 Imperial Eloquence, 8/1 Mr Macho,
10/1 Flemenstrix, 12/1 Springbok Seia,
100/1 Lammturner, 150/1 Born A Saint,
200/1 Our Uncle Pat.

Maiden Hurdle over 2m 4f

Not an easy race to do
With some of the fancied horses
Facing absences of 100 99 83 days
Plenty can happen we don't know in that time

SONIC has the recent run
But he comes from a 2m race
That was only 8 days ago
That is a statistical problem
As this angle appears to show

Maiden Hurdles
2m 4f or more
Any Time of year since 2007
Horses aged 5 or more
Coming from 2m hurdles
Running in the last 10 days
Return a 0-79 record
SONIC fails this 0-79 profile
He has to be the weak link here
I have to guess an alternative
MR MACHO has 1 career start
His profile is a long way from safe
FLENENSTRIX also has 1 run
His profile is better with an absence
But it is still not a safe enough one

Shortlist

IMPERIAL ELOQUENCE
TRUCKERS LODGE

Nothing strong about either profile
But not as problematic as others

IMPERIAL ELOQUENCE has ability
Not sure whether he wants this 2m 4f
But faster ground will be a serious help
TRUCKERS LODGE has the best numbers
Connections suggest today's ground suit
He does look the most likely winner
Both hard to split
So feel I should stake both
At the prices I'm playing it this way

Selection

£5 Win IMPERIAL ELOQUENCE 9/2
£5 Win TRUCKERS LODGE 11/10



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