Statistical Analysis Wednesday 11th July

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Lingfield 2.30

2/1 Mouchee, Pondering, 9/2 Full Suit,
7/1 Dove Mountain, 8/1 Storm Again,
14/1 Endean, 50/1 Game In The Park.

10f selling race

MOUCHEE is top rated
But He is a David Evans 3yo
With a nasty 105 day absence

It is a lot for a 3yo
To win a seller against older horses
When faced with an absence like that

July and August
Selling races
Any distance
Since 2000
850 of these races

Horses aged 3
Absent more than 81 days
Have a miserable 1-141 record
3yo Males were 0-95 in these races
MOUCHEE fails this 0-95 statistic

Look at the 850 races
Horses aged 3
With 9 or more career starts
Absent more than 41 days
Have a 0-62 record in them
MOUCHEE fails this 0-62 statistic

These angles suggest we oppose him
MOUCHEE is therefore rejected

Fitness is important here

MOUCHEE - 105 days off
PONDERING - filly with 1 run in 10 months
DOVE MOUNTAIN - 1 run in 9 months
ENDEAN - 1 career start not enough
GAME IN THE PARK - I run not enough

STORM AGAIN has claims
But 68 days off isn't ideal for a 3yo

PONDERING is a 4yo filly
She has had just 1 run in 297 days
That run she finished last as well
DOVE MOUNTAIN also looks underraced
He is a 7yo with just 1 run since Oct 2017

Runs in the last 100 days

6 Full Suit
2 Storm Again
1 Pondering
1 Dove Mountain
1 Endean
1 Game In The Park
0 Mouchee

FULL SUIT has at least 4 more runs
Than every one of her opponents
That could count for an awful lot

FULL SUIT must be a big positive
Has to be the fittest horse in the race

Selection

FULL SUIT 7/2

Win Bet
or
Each Way

CATTERICK 2.40

6/4 Artarmon, 11/4 Horatio Star,
3/1 Mutanaqel, 4/1 Makawee,
66/1 East Wind, 100/1 Afloraldance.

12f Maiden

6 runners
4 with chances

ARTAMON sets the standard
Not really my favourite stable
But this looks a race he can win
He has raced 6 times so far
Racing Post Ratings 54 69 75 67 77 77
A Rating of 77 may be good enough

HORATIO STAR has raced once
With a Racing Post Rating of 70
You'd have to say close enough to strike
But in all similar races

Male 3 year olds
Just 1 career start
Coming from 10f or shorter
Beaten over 6 lengths last time
Return a 0-29 record in similar races
HORATIO STAR fails this 0-29 profile
He is not like any winners

You also have the Catterick factor
A track that rewards experienced horses
That factor could be the key to the race
MUTANAQEL has raced just once this year
Just 1 run in the last 258 days
His 12 length defeat last time
Damages his profile

MAKAWEE is a filly from 8f
Maiden races
12f and further
Any time of year
3yo Fillies
Running over 8f that year
Running within the last 8 weeks
Return a predictably modest 1-67 record
Those running on grass were 0-33
Those with under 5 runs were 0-53
MAKAWEE fails both those angles

ARTAMON is my selection
He is quite weak in the market
That is quite understandable
He is quite a lazy sort
True to say he isn't progressing
But all his rivals have questionable profiles
And throw in the Catterick factor
And the fact he is the fittest horse
I think he has enough to finally win

Selection

ARTAMON 7/4

Win Bet

Bath 8.10

11/4 Defining Moment, 100/30 Powerful Dream,
7/2 Blitz, 4/1 Fethiye Boy, 9/2 Secretfact.

5F Handicap
0-77 Rated horses

Runs in 2018

8 Powerful Dream
3 Defining Moment
3 Secretfact
3 Fethiye Boy
2 Blitz

Does this matter ?
On Firm ground at Bath
It could very well be a factor

POWERFUL DREAM looks interesting
I think he is the fittest horse in the race

One added Bonus
He has 3 wins on Firm Ground at Bath

DEFINING MOMENT is a 4yo filly
Just 3 runs in 11 months
Ran ok last time
But all similar fillies that won
Had more runs than that
BLITZ is another 4yo filly
She does look underraced
With just 2 runs in 10 months

Last time out Racing Post Ratings

73 Powerful Dream
65 Defining Moment
64 Secretfact
64 Fethiye Boy
63 Blitz

Seasonal Best Racing Post Ratings

76 Powerful Dream
72 Blitz
70 Fethiye Boy
65 Defining Moment
64 Secretfact

These numbers are not conclusive
POWERFUL DREAM still looks the bet

SECRETFACT has the shortest absence
He is the best backed horse
Unlukcy last time out
In a much better race than this
I'd rather save on him
That go e/w in a 6 runner race

Selection

£7.00 Win Bet POWERFUL DREAM 100/30 +

£3.00 Saver Bet SECRETFACT 2/1

Lingfield 2.00

Demurrer might not stay 9f
When factoring in his absence
Sires runners over 9f + are 1-45
Running on Grass they are 0-15
Good Impression sets the standard
Well beaten last time after 124 days off
Just 1 run in 135 days could be an issue
Most need to improve to over this trip
None of them offer risk free profiles

Yarmouth 2.50

I'd split stake this 2yo Novice
PINK ICEBURG sets a modest standard
But had factors against her last time
Bits of money at big prices for Shining Armor
Amoreena - No chance she stayed 6f on debut
I would go 50% stakes on Pink Iceburg 11/10
With the remaing 50%
Either win (5/1) or Place (4/5) on Amoreena

Catterick 3.10

6/5 Prairie Spy, 7/2 Essenza, 5/1 Lady Katy,
9/1 Don't Tell Dandy, Islay Mist, 10/1 Bandola.

6f Nursery for fillies
PRAIRIE SPY is rated 87
He faces only a 0-67 class field
I love these high weighted bets
Who conceded tins of weight
To inferior horses

You can take the view
That the weight will be too much
Something handicapped to beat them
Or take the view
That they have the class to win

I like the Class argument
According to connections
It was either running here
As the best horse giving weight
Or in the Group 2 Cherry Hinton
Having not done enough for that yet
They may have chosen correctly

ESSENZA is the market danger
I don't think she is a certain stayer
Lots of speed in that pedigree
Her sires record so far a modest 1-54
Those running over 6f or more are 0-37
Doesn't look the biggest of fillies either
You can never be completely sure
Exactly how good these fillies are
PRAIRIE SPY is easily the class horse
I am expecting her to beat this field

Lingfield 3.30

15/8 Bailarico, 7/2 Mizen Master,
6/1 Threediamondrings, 8/1 Buthelezi,
9/1 Street Jester, 10/1 Danglydontask,
10/1 Shan Dun na nGall, 20/1 Clearance,
33/1 Topalova, 50/1 Archipentura.

BAILARICO is on a 4 timer
Unusually lightly raced for a 5yo
He has won 0-59 0-61 0-70 races
Because this is only a 0-55
I'd be reluctant to oppose him
His main rivals all have either....
Fewer runs this season
Several weeks absence
Or significant step up in trips
There is no safe alternative
There are some well treated sorts
Buthelezi is very well handicapped
Unsafe profile but he has backclass
Only takes one horse to beat you
BAILARICO in an each way double
Could be the best strategy here

Could play it this way

Lingfield 3.30 Bailarico
Catterick 3.40 Montague 7/4

Each Way Double

Catterick 3.40

3/1 Montague, 7/2 Ghost, 4/1 Iron Sky,
6/1 Milton Road, 12/1 May Symphonic,
14/1 Freebe Rocks, 20/1 Finsbury Park,
20/1 Mafdet, 25/1 Northern Law

3yo Handicap over 7f
Past winners had 11 8 8 5 3 13 7 runs
Almost all winners had 5 or more runs
The only one that didn't have that
Won in a small 5 runner race

This track does not reward
Horses with few runs in these races
IRON SKY only has 3 career runs
I think he is the weakest link here

MONTAGUE is the class horse
He has the best numbers
He has the most recent run
That would make him my preference
But there are some quiet dangers
Looks an each way double bet to me
I'd make sure I couldn't lose if he won

Yarmouth 4.20

10/11 Excelleration, 9/4 Rhigolter Rose,
4/1 Gratified, 12/1 Billie Beane,
50/1 Boxatricks.

Excelleration is 8/11
Stepping up in trip worries me
I see stamina question marks
Now he steps up from 7f to 8f

If he had some strong opposition
I'd have no hesitation in opposing him
On the grounds this 8f may be too far
But he only has 2 sensible dangers
One (Gratified) is an unraced gelding
The other (Rhigolter Rose) is modest
Betting Rhigolter Rose each way
Does appeal but not quite safe enough
With an unraced Cheveley Park filly
Laying Excelleration is another option
But not sure how good his rivals are
One thing I don't want do
Is take odds on about the favourite
Not with the stamina doubts he brings