Are 43% of Republicans Hypocrites?

You may have recently seen a study that indicates an alarming amount of Republicans that believe the president should have the authority to shut down press. This was brought to light from an Ipsos study reported on 8/7/2018. Although the findings are troubling, I'd like to add some perspective for consideration. First, here's what the study had to say:

Findings

"Some of the limits of public support for freedom of the press are made stark with a quarter of Americans (26%) saying they agree “the president should have the authority to close news outlets engaged in bad behavior,” including a plurality of Republicans (43%). Likewise, most Americans (72%) think “it should be easier to sue reporters who knowingly publish false information.”"

Methodology

"These are findings from an Ipsos poll conducted August 3-6, 2018. For the survey, a sample of roughly 1,003 adults age 18+ from the continental U.S., Alaska and Hawaii was interviewed online in English. The sample includes 323 Democrats, 363 Republicans, and 207 Independents.

The sample for this study was randomly drawn from Ipsos’ online panel (see link below for more info on “Access Panels and Recruitment”), partner online panel sources, and “river” sampling (see link below for more info on the Ipsos “Ampario Overview” sample method) and does not rely on a population frame in the traditional sense. Ipsos uses fixed sample targets, unique to each study, in drawing a sample. After a sample has been obtained from the Ipsos panel, Ipsos calibrates respondent characteristics to be representative of the U.S. Population using standard procedures such as raking-ratio adjustments. The source of these population targets is U.S. Census 2013 American Community Survey data. The sample drawn for this study reflects fixed sample targets on demographics. Post-hoc weights were made to the population characteristics on gender, age, race/ethnicity, region, and education."

An In-Depth Look at The Data Presented

Although the study indicates that there is a free speech issue within the party, there are some relevant caveats that are being ignored by those reporting based on this data. According to a sample size calculator you can find here and an estimate of ~84.7 Million Republicans in the US derived from Gallup's most recent poll showing a 26% estimated republican population out of the 325.7 million US citizens. We can estimate the confidence interval of this study as +/- 5.14% - 6.77% (95% and 99% Confidence Level).

Source: Pixabay

The Ispos study also has a similar reported "credibility interval" that they calculated within the constraints of their model. Here's what they report:

"The poll also has a credibility interval plus or minus 6.2 percentage points for Democrats, plus or minus 5.9 percentage points for Republicans, and plus or minus 7.8 percentage points for Independents."

So, if we can trust the integrity of the study itself, based on the population, sample size, and a confidence level we can estimate somewhere between 36.23% and 49.77% of Republicans seem to have this view. If we use their credibility interval we get a similar 37.1% - 48.9% range. So, although most outlets are simplifying the data by reporting "nearly half" of Republicans a more honest simplification of the data would be to at least give it the range of one third and one half of Republicans. That being said, over 35% is also astronomically high even if the accurate amount ends up being on the low end of that spectrum, but there is another concern that should be understood by readers (and should be reported in articles based on this data).

Considerations For Data Collection Methodology

Take a look at the methodology quote above, the 363 Republicans came from a seemingly unconventional sampling of members of the Ipsos online panel, partner online panel sources, and "river" sampling. They go out of their way to correctly disclose that the study "does not rely on a population frame in the traditional sense" and explain a different method using fixed sample targets that they calibrate to portray the target population. So, although the end goal is "good data" the methodology sounds unconventional. So now we also have to try and account for any marketing bias (intended or otherwise) as well as the psychological profile of the typical republican that would actively seek out a membership on this panel to express their opinion compared to the average republican to see if their ideals overlap perfectly or if there is a deviance. The confidence interval calculation above only works under the assumption of a random sampling that is adequately decentralized and hits on all types of demographic/psychographic profiles. Unfortunately, the study is a little difficult to read and understand well enough to verify if it does in fact meet this goal.

Source: Pixabay

Although I certainly don't think there was any malice behind the study or the findings and I do believe Ispos to be a non-partisan source that is trying to find good data, if further research indicates that they did not achieve an adequately randomized set of participants within that population, then the whole study could be shot. This is a valid concern with the way in which this study was conducted. It seems prudent at this time to get another non-partisan group to audit the findings and the method in which the study was conducted, or perhaps a follow-up study that's done on a much larger and more traditional scale would be a wise move. The short version of this concern is simply that we need validation that we can trust their methodology.

My Personal Opinion On The Study

I would be inclined to think a subset of Republicans that feel the president should have the authority to shut down the press are probably the same type that would go out of their way to insert their opinion into an online poll. I don't see this attitude amongst any of my Republican friends of which I have many. I also see a lot of prominent Republican or right-leaning figures state that they are against this idea. I have a strong feeling that this sentiment is wildly overstated. However, as overstated as it might be, I don't think you get to "43%" without there being a grain of truth.

Although I have concerns about the study and the findings, I also believe that it was an important study and that it should be reported on. There is a lot of tension between the press and the people, and with good reason. I see dishonesty and bias in mainstream media more than I see good reporting. However, the first amendment is a cornerstone of our country and we need to preserve all of it, including the freedom of the press. I like the conversation started by this statistic, I just would like a more transparent understanding of what the study really is to be communicated to the public.