The Crypto Winter is Here but Spring will be Coming

in #informationwar5 years ago (edited)

I’ve been watching @tonevays for months and this is the first time since last February I’ve heard him switch to being a bitcoin bull. He still says that we will have more downside in the intermediate term, but his worst case scenario is about $1K. Before I started listening to him, I was using a technique in Valens Anthology to guess at peak activity. This chart I was using in 2017 suggested that the bear market would start by mid February 2018 and so far, it has been accurate. If it continues to be so, then the bear market will end in February 2019. However, that doesn’t mean that a bull market will take over. From that point forward, the trading could be mostly sideways for a while.

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I personally am not worried about the long term viability of bitcoin and other crypto's. Why should you listen to me? It's true that I generally prefer to remain obscure and have never attended any conferences on blockchain and generally avoid most forms of social activity (I no longer have FB or Twitter accounts). But I've been watching technology develop since the 1960's, remember mom's copy of "Future Shock" by Alvin Toffler around 1970 and wrote my first code as a teen by the mid 1970's. I feel sorry for those who rely on their news from FB. They don't understand that the dark web is where the news starts and is the incubator for nearly all important technological advances (this has been the case since the early days of the web).

While crypto's will still be around and bitcoin may be the Yahoo! in this space right now, one crypto will eventually become the Google of finance. The main concern I have is the very real danger of an encroaching digital panopticon derailing this adoption in the west. This is because those currently comfortable in western democracies will not adopt crypto as a replacement unless the western banking system collapses. I believe that they may be able to create a blockchain replacement in time to subvert the threat of decentralized crypto (i.e - FedCoin or a digital SDR). However, this only applies to about 1.5 billion people. What about the other 6 billion people left outside of the banking system?

They will be the ones to pick up use of cryptocurrencies. People like @saafir represent the future of the world, because they reside at the epicenter of change. This revolution is for them because king George has taken up shop in the USSA and we have become the bad guys. Don't get me wrong, I love America, but we have lost our way and eventually we will all pay a severe price for our arrogance. Authority will of course ask for more control as terrorism increases and it will increase because authority is the source of all terror. This is because there is no such thing as "good" authority. Either you end up with Pol Pot, or Donald Trump and they all eventually commit atrocities because power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely. The key to escaping this vicious cycle is decentralization because no one can be trusted.

Worship someone long enough and they eventually believe themselves to be gods. However, they are not and suffer from the same failings as all the rest of us. Even worse, because such people have nothing tempering their pride which is the deadliest of all sins. This is why, in the end, whosoever shall be first will be last, and those who were last shall be first.

The eventual fall and inevitable spring

Pride is what has prevented authority from seeing the truth and acting in truth. It prevented them from understanding the internet in the early days and the great power for disruption it has. I remember Bryant Gumbel discussing email in the early 90's. If I was him, I'd be embarrassed to watch.


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Many speaking from positions of authority were saying that this "internet thing" will never take off. But once it did, they started working on centralizing their power over it. The same thing is happening once again in the field of crypto where each of these coins is like a new search engine. Eventually there will be a Google of finance. The only question that remains is whether we end up with the book of Revelations with a centralized SDR or freedom through decentralized crypto. The choice is for each of us to make on our own.


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Good article, unfortunately centralisation is already everywhere in crypto, even without government intervention, and the BCH charade made that painfully clear to everyone. But i agree there is likely to be some Google of crypto.....

I cant argue with anything you wrote here. The west is the major question market but the rest of the world is a done deal. When people realize that 5.5B or maybe even 6B people are banked or underbanked, I think it tells where the future of crypto is. The West might be asleep yet it will have to wake up. at some point. The banksters simply cannot help themselves. They will implode the economy.

In my post tomorrow, I am going to discuss the amount of accounts with SP in it. That needs to keep expanding. Each new account is someone else who is in the crypto game...they might not stay here for long but they are in it. That is the starting point...getting millions more into the realm.

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Thanks so much, @zoidsoft, for providing a steady and realistic long-term perspective on the crypto-sphere; it's much needed in these times of bearish negativity. Market-fluctuations aside, nothing has fundamentally changed about the necessity of peer-to-peer cash without intermediaries. And you're right to point out the billions that are un-banked or under-banked, as it is easy to lose sight of their pivotal role in the totally banked western democracies.

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