Why 70 Is So Important
I got nothing today, mostly because I lack the time to write something worthwhile, but also because I'm exhausted. So I'm going to do something I haven't done before; I'm going to present you all with an article I wrote almost two years ago. This was the second post from my hand that made more than a dollar on Steemit. It's a good thing I almost always write about stuff that never grows old... ;-)
source: Wikipedia
"The greatest shortcoming of the human race today is our inability to understand the Exponential Function," so begins the lesson of Dr. Albert A. Bartlett, a professor emeritus of Physics at the University of Colorado-Boulder. And this lesson is one to remember, I promise you.
Let's do a little thought-experiment; say we have a bacterium that divides every minute. After a minute we have 2 bacteria, after two minutes there are four, and so on. Now let's say we put that single bacterium in a jar at exactly 11 o'clock and we see the jar fill up, and at 12 o'clock precisely the jar is full. These bacteria need air and space to move, so they can not survive in a full jar. Can you tell me at what time that jar was half full?
I'm sure none of you answered 11:30 o'clock. Or did you? When I ask this question at random people I very seldom hear the right answer, which is of course 11:59. Yes, at 1 minute before twelve the jar is half full because the number doubles every minute. For some strange reason the right answer alludes us, even when it is so easy to understand when you talk about something that doubles in numbers over a fixed period of time.
Now let's imagine those bacteria can think en speak for themselves, much like we can. What would the mindset be at 1 minute to twelve? Well, the jar would be only half full, so they wouldn't worry about anything there's enough air and free space, so... They are blissfully unaware of the fact that in just one minute they'll all die...
In an economy where everything is judged by its rate of growth, we tend to overlook this huge basic problem with the exponential function. Now here's where the number 70 comes in and why I want you all to never forget this rule of 70, which is also known as the rule of 72 or 69.3. Because any growth that can be expressed as a steady percentage number per fixed time period has a so-called doubling time. Where the bacteria doubled every minute, we use the number 70 to calculate the doubling time for any percentage growth.
If something grows 2% every year, the doubling time can be calculated by dividing 70 by 2. Divide 70 by the percentage per time period and you get the number of time periods needed for 100% growth. The number 70 is an approximation of the natural logarithm of 2 multiplied by 100. This is not important however; just remember the number and you'll have a better grasp when politicians and bankers say that 2% inflation or 2% growth per year is indicative of "healthy" growth. When something grows 2% per year, it doubles in size every 35 years! They say the size of the economy needs to double in size within your working lifetime!
Add to that the knowledge that the size of the economy today is the result of all preceding growth, at least since we started measuring, and you see the fallacy in the so called "healthy growth", why growth-numbers reported by China several years back of almost 10% per year were totally ridiculous. And maybe you now begin to understand why life is so frantic and why average Joe needs to work longer and harder every year, despite all progression in technology; we're chasing after an unreachable goal, dictated by today's dogma that is the ever growing economy.
I know the video is old, but I invite you to watch it anyway; this old professor has some important things to say:
The Most IMPORTANT Video You'll Ever See
Maybe, just maybe you now also see why a deflationary currency like Bitcoin, with a fixed supply of 21 million coins, is just what we need to better represent the reality that we live on a planet with finite resources. Infinite growth, as represented by the ever inflating amount of Fiat currency, may not be the best way to model a finite Earth... One more reason for Fiat to die and Bitcoin to take over as the world's reserve currency, if you ask me :-)
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Measuring the world in numbers is a mathematical effort and will never be accurate. No matter what numbers we use, they can be so wrong that a calculation based on slight deviations at the beginning, the end of a calculation can be unbelievably distorted. Similar to when a tailor derives the real body dimensions from a miniature cut, taking a pen that is too thick and applying the centimetre inaccurately.
The dogma you speak of as dictated is supported and endorsed by us - the ordinary people - in the same way. The average Joe wouldn't have to work as much and as hard as he thinks. He could be content with less if he wasn't so keen on imitating rich Joe. But someone like me, who knows that he depends on average Joe just as much as he depends on rich Joe, looks for an inconspicuous niche where he neither works too little nor too much, neither accumulates too little nor too much matter and lives his life in waves. Sometimes in good times and sometimes in less good times. I admire the geniuses and creatives of the past and present times, I watch those who simply see their work as an administrative activity and those who are driven by ambition, restlessness and stress. Fortunately, people are so different and do not all live by the same rules and rhythms. Although a majority seems to do so. But the minorities are always the beneficiaries of a more indifferent and less active majority, which seems to be great at complaining, but sluggish at changing. I would think that this is an advantage for me personally. I take advantage of this fact and have made myself a little comfortable in it. The wealth of others is my advantage. Very, very indirectly. At the same time, it's my disadvantage. No one dimensional viewpoint possible.
Right, the result of what we have today is owed to a past, a development that began long before we were even born. What people create is difficult to dismantle or even make disappear. It is quite complicated to do something new without destroying the old or causing radical pain.
We see a mishmash of it. Destruction of what was, renewal and slow change, a rather gentle change where the old is transformed into the new without a hard transition.
But growth always comes to an end on a time scale. This is beyond human existence, because we never live so long to observe a development completely. There is therefore no beginning and no end.
Whether entropy and order are in balance can only be discussed by cosmic considerations. My life and that of those I know is touched by both. I am beyond being able to judge whether the apocalypse occurs during my lifetime. I can only make the best of it personally and send compassion into the field.
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