Deloitte forecasts a glut of EV's by 2030
Deloitte forecasts a glut of EV's by 2030
- A recently released Deloitte report forecasts ownership cost of battery electric vehicles to match petrol and diesel in the UK by 2021 and globally by 2022.
- However, they then go on to suggest that manufacturers’ investment in EV capacity will lead to supply outstripping demand so much that they expect a global oversupply of 14m vehicles by 2030.
- They identify two main external drivers of demand, government polices such as emission standards, ICE bans and subsidies, plus a consumer demand for greener vehicles.
- Additionally, they state that issues such as driving range, cost premium, charging infrastructure, and time required to charge as being the four key system specific issues to resolve.
- Of those four they highlight a lack of charging infrastructure and time to charge as being the key barriers, with no obvious solutions on the horizon until the middle of the next decade.
Analysis and Comments
- I agree with much of the initial analysis, with research indicating that at least for the next few years, subsidies and the desire to purchase green vehicles (early adopters) will continue to drive high rates of growth.
- One area where I disagree is around battery recharging. I consider that advances in battery charging technology are moving much faster than the Deloitte report suggests.
- I read analysis which indicates that larger DC chargers (150KW and above) will quickly become viable as stand-alone commercial businesses – with companies like Fortum already pushing hard in this space.
- When added to measures such as the schemes to add street-side AC recharging systems (Ubitricity.com & Pod Point - no driveway no problem), the options for vehicle recharging for hard to reach groups such as those with no off street parking will increase.
- In addition, new vehicles planned for release in late 2019 & early 2020 such as the VW ID range Cleantechnica preview of VW ID specs suggest that a target of an 80% recharge in only 30 min will be achievable (using fast chargers).
- This is an aspect of EV uptake that I think is poorly understood
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I rode in a Tesla yesterday. It was fun.
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On the recharging issue, I would remind you that faster charging always results in higher levels of waste heat generated, and also that overheating is the most common cause of exploding/burning batteries.
The biggest issue associated with Lithium Ion batteries is pollution. Lithium itself is highly toxic stuff. What arrangements have been made for the disposal of all these lithium ion batteries at the end of their service life? The short answer is, none.
You'd think we'd learn something from the nuclear power debacle, but no. Where there is money to be made, all such long-term issues will always be brushed aside, ignored, swept under the carpet in favor of short-term profits.
I think the issue is different than nuclear power. Yes, you have this risk and this waste but it should be Energy/carbon in the future positive thanks to technology improvments. Look at solar panel, for 20 years, they were a waste and harmful for the environment today it reached the positive side.
The only way to answer these ecological issues is through technology.
Have you seen what electric cars Audi just give out ... You go look what is on this Audi E-Tron GT And Audi E-Tron Q4 , Q5 and Sportback ... you can see that something big is start go up next 3 years.
And also Mercedes, Honda and some big car industry more.
What I know is that they tried last 7 years make Tesla bankrupt, but it did not happen , So now fast lot car industry come out what electric cars and lot :)
Ahah indeed, a lot is happening !
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And this car manufacturers know they are already able to make a car that can drive what one single charge 1000 km. And it is not joke.
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I think that governments will also promote improvements in infrastructure to support these vehicles as they commit to improving carbon emissions.
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I have three electric cars in my house.
Car dealers are guaranteed battery for 5 years.
When a battery was in the sixth year, suddenly the power dropped.
battery can be opened car for 3 days, and now it can only be opened car for 2 hours.
The result was that I had to buy another one new battery.
The remaining 2 battery,
1 battery used in the 7th year, the same problem to bad.
And rechargeable batteries are very expensive,
The price of a new battery is almost equal to the price of a used car.
So think about it,
If you want to use an electric car, you have to be mentally prepared to spend a lot of money on it.
After 5 years, you will buy a new battery.
...................
我家裡有三台電動車,
車商對於電池的保固都是5年,
1顆電池在第6年的時候,忽然電能大跌,
本來充飽可以開3天的,現在充飽只能開2小時,
結果只好在再買一顆,
剩下的2顆,
1顆用到第7年,也出現同樣的問題,
而充電電池是很貴的,
新電池的價格,幾乎等於二手車的價格,
所以想想,
想用電動車的,你要有後續在花大錢的心理準備,
5年後你會要買新電池的.