Israel Election Analysis & Predictions - The most Right Wing Knesset ever!

in #israel5 years ago (edited)

View this post on Hive: Israel Election Analysis & Predictions - The most Right Wing Knesset ever!


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With 97% of the vote counted, its clear that Bibi Netanyahu has won a historic 5th term as Israeli Prime Minister.
He has just beaten the legendary David Ben Gurion for elections won and will soon pass him for total term as PM.

Currently Likud & their main opposition (Blue & White list) both have 35 seats with the right wing block having 65 seats (out of 120)

http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/261645

However the 3% of votes not yet counted could change things up a bit. These votes are mainly soldiers votes and they traditionally skew right.

Naftali Bennet & Ayelet Shaked's New Right party is just short of the 3.25% electoral threshold and is quite likely to make up the difference from the soldier's votes.
The New Right campaigned heavily for the soldier's vote and for freeing them from having lawyers looking over their shoulder on every decision made in the heat of combat.

Also, the Arab party Ra’am-Balad is just over the 3.25% threshold and is likely to receive very few soldier's votes (as the majority of Arabs** choose not to serve in the IDF).
This would push them under the threshold and they would miss out.
The level of Arab voter participation, which in last election was almost the same as the Jewish voter participation, was down this election and the Arab parties, which had previously run a combined list, split up, reducing their strength.

So when the final count is done I predict that New Right will get 4 seats and Ra’am-Balad will get zero.

This will increase the Right Block to 69 seats, making it the most right wing Knesset ever!

This is also the case because the Blue and White list is comprised of two parties one of which is centrist (led by Lapid) and the other which is center right (lead by Gantz).
Each party will get half the seats and and either or both parties could easily join a Bibi led right wing government.
Lapid was part of Bibi's third government and there is very little ideological difference between Bibi & Gantz. The election turned more on personality and whether people thought Bibi deserved another term or not.

The only real left wing parties are Labor (center left) and Meretz (hard left) and they got smashed.
Labor (the party of Ben Gurion) won only 6 seats, its lowest ever! Meretz also only got 4 seats, its lowest for quite a while.

So this election is a huge victory for the Right and complete devastation for the left.
You won't see it reported this way though because the leftist mainstream media will try to obscure the true picture.

** Large numbers of Druse and Bedouin serve in the IDF but they are not "Arabs" strictly speaking and are unlikely to vote for an Arab party if they have chosen to serve in the IDF.

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I wish Kahlon would have received more votes... He won't be able to balance out the coalition very much, just with his 4 seats 😔

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I am hoping that Bennet & Shaked make it.
Kahlon, I have been unimpressed with.
His interference in the property market with the fixed price plan etc has caused a big decrease in apartment starts at a time that they needed to increase dramatically.
Property prices are going to skyrocket soon because there is simply not enough supply to meet the demand caused by the huge increase in Israeli birthrate that started 23 years ago.
In the next decade and a half the rate of household formation is going to go up by more than 50% and housing commencements needed to start going up big time 3 years ago.

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