Bitcoin! Will You Just Make Up Your Flippin' Mind Already!
After the nail-biting excitement of almost breaking out of the mother of all triangles to the upside, the rug has been pulled out from under our feet and we find ourselves straight back down to the bottom of that ascending trendline once more. I was really convinced that that pressured upmove a couple days back might have been validated, as so many others were, but this just goes to show the volatile nature of the beast that is BTC. So, what now?
Well first off, it must be said that there are a tonne of analysts out there, who predicted the breakout move through various complex looking charts, only to then be utterly wrong and respond with a simple "Sorry about that." Don't listen to any of them. The fact of the matter is as long as this price action remains constricted within the confines of the overall triangle, the direction of the breakout is unknown. So my advice is to wait until that occurs before even thinking about implementing any kind of trading strategy plan. Though that may have potentially proved quite profitable for the last few weeks, now those converging lines are so tightly coiled, the risk factors involved just shot through the roof. I've been in the game of trading for years and have seen many examples of how violent triangle breakouts can be, and trust me, you wouldn't wanna be on the wrong side of this one when it happens. And even if you're a long-term HODLer of BTC, I guess it wouldn't hurt to get in at a better level, if you can.
So, "if" you fall into the latter category of people I've described above, then the answer is simple. Buy real small near or at the "bottom" of the main ascending line and wait. Meaning, the bottom of the triangle. If a breakout occurs to the downside, then we'll reassess at a later date, but playing it conservatively is the order of the day for now. And as stated earlier, day trading carries much more risk than it is worth at this point. Though a little consolation we can get outta all this madness today is that a few altcoins didn't get hit as hard as you'd have thought. Steem being one of them. And that's a relief seeing as it's price movement has always seemed so tightly correlated to it. Who knows why? But hell, I'll take anything right now, lol!
Looking at the bigger picture a little closer, what is my personal hunch as to a "possible" breakout move when it finally surfaces. Well, we can see that the green candles going up tend to be small and weak in structure whereas the red candles show much more power overall. And the nearer we get to the endgame, the clearer it is becoming. Prime example being on the 5th and 17th of September, as well as today. Where one huge downmove negates a whole bunch of green's preceding it. Again, it doesn't mean that this will be the prevailing ultimate direction of the BTC market once the breakout takes place, but just something to keep a watch on and be prepared for. So, set your internal radars on "alert", lol.
These markets can get very frustrating, to say the least. Perfect conditions, in fact, for shaking out all those weak hands. But bear in mind that once the last few remnants of sellers leave the market, the bull run "will" resume and without warning. We all saw what is possible in the last quarter of 2017, so there's no question that it can happen again at anytime. So the very best of luck, my Steemian friends. Let's wait for that damn moon and get there together... :)
A sound assessment. The end of the month looks important as the triangle ends there. The 9-10 month down cycle has been tough, but I'm confident the good times will come again.
When I draw the triangle it doesn't conclusively end until the end of November. Hope you're ready for some hodling.
(I don't think TA has any real predictive value).
Yeah, there can be some slight disparate in time-frames with different people seeing and drawing different triangles. But the end result should be the same and yeah, ready for the big hold.
I've noticed that TA creates two camps. Those that do believe and those that do not. I fully respect both but like to base my judgements on past personal experiences. Though definite not 100% indicative of market direction like some believe, I do find them a useful complimentary analytical tool to providing a wider picture of where the market may "probably" head.
It does!
Thanks, man! Patience is integral to this market. Without it, emotions take over which ultimately leads to fear of the markets. We need an "will of iron" to power through the worst, but I see monumental recompenses for those that did. Stacking hard is what I'll be doing till then!
Wishing you the best, @abh12345. :)
Cheers!
Yeah I'm pulling pints in a bar right now so's not to have to cash out any STEEM 'down' here. Good luck to us all!
Most of the “analysts” are using techniques that were designed for the regulated stock markets. The techniques only work because the regulations form the rules of the trends.
In an unregulated market, those rules go out the window. When the trends match a pattern, it is arguably only coincidence.
My only plan is to buckle up and enjoy the ride. 👍
I hear ya, buddy. What I find pretty annoying is how these guys almost "guarantee" they've got it all figured out. Which, most of the time, seems just the contrary. So many newbies to the market must have lost untold money due to bad advice and thus start hating crypto in general. A vicious and unnecessary cycle.
I wonder if people are selling to cover the losses in the stock market.
Lol, who knows? Could be...
To listen to the audio version of this article click on the play image.
Brought to you by @tts. If you find it useful please consider upvoting this reply.
It could be a sell off. It also could be more price manipulation and suppression. Thanks my fiend.
Could well be, bud. :)