Crypto Dilemma - HODL Or Accept The Losses?
I just checked my very diversified crypto portfolio and already regret it. Should I keep believing and HODL, or just sell and accept my losses? I really don't know.
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My Crypto Adventure
It was October 2016. After selling both my own house and the house of my deceased parents, I had quite some money in my bank account. I had been going back and forth about investing in gold, when a friend of mine introduced me to crypto.
Bitcoin was selling at app. $700 at the time, so I decided to invest a part of my money. Best decision in my entire crypto career.
When the price of Bitcoin kept going up, I was a happy little camper. A year later, on December 17th, 2017, Bitcoin reached its ATH of $20000. My money was worth 26x more than on the day I decided to invest.
I should have been smart and cash out, but FOMO kept me from doing so. What if the price would rise even more???
Not cashing out was a big mistake. It may have been the first, but it was definitely not the last one.
Rookie Decisions
During the first year, before the entire crypto market exploded, I picked up some other good deals. I bought my first couple of ETH for $8/coin, and some Litecoin for $65/coin.
I should have stopped there, though. But it was too late... I had too much fun and made to much profit to stop.
So instead of just leaving the investments alone, I started looking for other promising cryptos. Without having more than a basic knowledge, I used my profits to diversify my portfolio.
I didn't know a lot about investing, couldn't read charts or detect patterns (I still can't), so I basically based my decisions on articles written by other people. At the time, it seemed to pay off. This was before the abundance of December 2017, so prices kept going up. Everything I bought at least tripled in price.
At one point, the price of DASH - which I bought at $88/coin - went all the way up to $1300.
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The last two months of 2017, I basically got addicted to discovering and buying new coins of which other people said they had a promising future.
(That's basically how I found out about Steem. It was trading at $0.9, and I bought it just for fun. It was only afterwards that I found out about SteemIt, lol).
Bear Market
What I didn't realize at that moment was that I was actually buying coins that were getting closer to their ATH every day. I considered every purchase as a good deal as long as I kept making profits.
Boy, was I wrong...
By January 2018, there were no less than 27 different cryptos in my portfolio, ERC-20 token not included.
Somewhere along the way, - after a tip from a friend - I also participated in the Envion ICO, investing more than $1000. It turned out to be one of the world's largest illegal mining ICO's, and the tokens were never paid out, nor refunded. (Read more about the Envion scam HERE.)
When the bear market kicked in, I made yet another mistake. Instead of following up closely, I simply did nothing. I closed my eyes and pretended the bear market was not there. This was the first time in more than a year that I took a look at my portfolio.
What To Do?
Fortunately, 68% of my portfolio is still taken in by Bitcoin. Since I bought at such a low price, it's the main reason that my overall numbers are in the green.
In a smaller extent, I'm still in the green for ETH, LTC, XRP, EOS and DASH.
But that's about it.
Everything else has been knocked down and even the best-performing altcoins are worth only 1/3rd of what I spent on them.
Oh, how I hate that bear!!!
I could kick myself for not following up and acting sooner. If I had, I wouldn't be looking at such losses right now.
So now I don't have a clue what to do. Do I sell these coins and accept my losses, or do I HODL, hoping they will recover.
I'm a bit ashamed to say that I still don't know any more about the crypto market than I did two years ago. I don't have any idea which coins might still go up, and which are a lost cause.
The truth is that if I sell now, I'll just get peanuts. If I'm lucky, I might be able to recover 15 to 20% of my investment (exchange fees not included). I wonder if that's even worth it....
But the prices of those coins could also drop even more, and then I won't even get peanuts....
I hate making decisions in general, but dilemmas like this one are the worst.
I'm simply clueless... and I don't like that one little bit.
I Haven't Learned A Thing
I realize that by writing this post and hoping to find someone who can give me some advice, I prove I haven't learned anything. I'm still relying on other people's knowledge and sentiment.
But for more than a year, the only crypto that occupied me was Steem. I wouldn't even know where to start my research on these other coins.
So, maybe that should be my question to you:
how and where to start my research in order to find out if there's still hope or not?
All tips will be more than welcome, because I can't go on like this, burying my head in the sand and pretending the problem doesn't exist.
Let me put all cards on the table while we're at it. Here's the list of cryptos I'm worried about.
(Don't laugh. I know I have made some bad decisions, to say the least, lol)
NULS, WAVES, BTS, LSK, ADA, NEO, XLM, XEM, ETC, MIOTA, STRAT, XMR, ARK, NANO, NXT, ETN
To be perfectly honest, I would just say leave them as they are... unless they are significant amounts in terms of fiat/btc. If they are essentially worthless now, don't bother.
Most of the ones that you listed aren't quite dead yet anyway, so unless you really need the cash... I would just say leave it! You can't tell... and stop thinking about losses, basically accept that when you buy into all of this, you should consider the whole amount "lost" as a high risk investment!
Surprise yourself in a decade or two, when your expected "zero" is either zero or non-zero!
Lol, you said the magic words...
After checking my portfolio this morning, I haven't had time to do some research on the coins. So I'm verry happy to hear that.
I don't know why those losses bother me (most have decimated and are worth like $50. Substract the fees for exchanging them and it is not really worth the trouble.)
It never bothers me when it comes to Steem, even though that's the biggest loss of all. 😂
One of the earlier comments on this post reminded me of the famous 'Bitcoin for pizza'- event. In 2010, someone paid 10 000 BTC for 2 pizzas, lol. I bet he now wishes he had never done so 😂
I made a similar entry to the crypto world (will probably post an article about my own journey in the not too distant future).
Nobody knows where the market is going so in the end you have to decide on your own.
Not accepting losses before it is too late is considered a common mistake between stock traders by the way. However, this doesn't mean every downswing in the market should cause you to FUD (actually that'd be the next common trader mistake). Instead research the projects, do what you missed to do when buying the coins. Then ask yourself if you still believe in the project.
You do? Keep the coin.
You don't? Sell it.
Cleaning up your portfolio can make losses real, but it can also bring peace to your mind, not having to worry about those coins anymore.
Imho: Keep MIOTA and ADA for the technology and consortium behind them. Keep NEO for the GAS dividends. Sell the rest. Do not convert it into other coins but cash it out. New investments might have been a good idea one-two months back, but they seem risky atm as a lot is going on in the markets right now.
Don't repeat the same mistake and hop onto the FOMO but HODL on to what you already have and see where the market takes is. Remember to set stop-losses this time in case the bulls take us back to previous heights. But when doing so don't set the stop-loss for 100% of your portfolio or you may get caught in a bear trap. Instead make your way out the same way the way in should have been (step by step to achieve a better mean value).
Wow, thanks, @handtalk5. This really is a comment with information I can work with.
I need to check my portfolio again, but I had made peace with the losses anyway. Last time I checked, there was so little value left that I could barely pay the fees needed to cash it out. Fortunately, BTC is on the run again. I'm thinking about cashing out a bit - I won't make the same mistake twice 😉
I say, keep on Hodling! Back then when you've FIRST invested there was TWO major issues besides the many others that I can't think of now that were the MAIN reason for the BEARS. 1) Security was NOT as "tight" as it is now. The hacking of accounts got many people distrusting in cryptos and causing them to withdraw their crypto accounts. 2) The other reason I have learned about cryptos from back then to now is that the economy wasn't prepared to accept cryptos back then compared to now. Right now, we are seeing the continuing and improving development of the Blockchain Technology! This is the reason why many "tokens" are popping up all over the world. This development of the Blockchain Technology is the main reason why NOW the world's economy has been accepting and implementing cryptos AND this new blockchain technology. So, because of this, cryptos is here to STAY and they will CONTINUE to rise... but NOT at the rate which we have seen when Bitcoin skyrocketed to $20,000! They are rising at a "healthy" rate; so, don't be discouraged when you see these "dips" in the crypto market... look at when they were in this past February 2019 to the present... look at Litecoin, for example, it was about $42 back then and NOW at $111 as of this morning (not sure what's going to happen to this coin when the "halving" occurs, though). So, like I said, keep on hodling!
Is it? I'm probably informed by the wrong sources. Just last week, I read an article in a national magazine - written by someone who called himself an expert - in which was stated than we could just as well throw away the entire blockchain tech.
I should definitely follow up more, but even though I knew which sources to turn to for objective crypto news 2 years ago, I'm completely in the dark these days.
I didn't even know about the halving. Just did a quick search and found some info in an article that named 3 events that could start a bull run. One of those events was the halving of LTC. (The other two: Ethereum switching to PoS and the expected launch of the ILP by Ripple.)
But again, that was just one resource of which I don't know whether it is credible or not.
Guess I'll just wait and see what happens. I think I'd feel worse when I would sell now and the prices would go up significantly than when I'd keep hodling and the prices go to zero. After all, I all bought them with Bitcoin profits...
Make sense... It's always best to do your research when it comes to cryptos. But, I really think the world is going to cryptos and the blockchain technology. I know this might seem crazy to you and others reading this comment may think likewise; but, this is prophecy in the making. The Big Banks are realizing the "power" of blockchain and cryptos and will EVENTUALLY "team up" to form the one world monetary system which is necessary for the new world order. I had been to Israel and to the Temple Mount in Jerusalem. Do you know what is located right there at the base of the Temple Mount in the City Of David?... it's The Rothschild Bank! -it's a World Bank in which, I believe, will EVENTUALLY form this one world monetary system using blockchain technology. All this I said is not to discourage anyone from using cryptos; in while all, some people think it's the "mark of the beast"... and it's NOT the mark of the beast. The "mark of the beast has NOT been formed yet and will not be formed for some time yet. What we are seeing is the technology getting in place for this "mark of the beast". So, right now, it's safe to invest in cryptos and MORE SO than ever... because it's only going to get better from this time on.
I believe in blockchain tech. And I do think that all those who are fighting crypto because they are afraid of it (like big banks and governments) will eventually get the attitude of 'if you can't beat them, join them'.
👍😉
I think you are not alone. I think most of us who are active on Steem have bought cryptos. Most people who buy cryptos tend to have (very) high hopes, likely to HODL than cash out. Also, many of us don't know nearly as much about trading or about individual coins as we should. So instead of offering any competent help, all I can do is compare:
I bought some XEM back when it looked like they were gonna launch the "catapult". Well, either it never happened, or the launch didn't have its desired results. Though I'm glad that the Exodus wallet includes that coin, so I don't need to keep it in a separate wallet.
DASH is another one I was pretty excited about, and still am to a certain extent. Of course all my info is also just based on the excitement of others, hehehe.
Some other candidates that I keep going back to, without proper knowledge, just from a gut feeling looking at the charts, are REP, GNT, EOS, DGB (oh yeah, me and that coin have a history), and especially right now LTC.
Some other coins keep wondering why I got them, or even more why I still have them are OMG and SALT. I think this is also where I should mention DOGE, but I think I must have sold that before the bear attack of December 2017.
Lol, I can't find SALT and OMG in my portfolio. I'm sure I had them, but probably exchanged them for something else at one point.
Like I said, after a year of non-stop crypto news I competely shut down when the prices dropped. I would have to go look up REP and GNT - never heard of those before. From the few things I picked up, I remember a lot of people saw a great future for DGB.
I visited CMC earlier today - first time in more than a year - and there were so many coins I did not know... But even if I would want to inform myself more, I simply wouldn't have time to do so. The interest is still there, but I don't see the use of putting in all the time and energy. One unexpected move and everything can change in a split second... 🙄
I just read that they seem to be hyping the IPL Ripple is planning to.launch next year. But a lot can happen in a year's time, lol.
All things considered, investing in crypto is very similar to betting on horse races, isn't it? You can do a lot of research to find out which horse hss the best chance at winning, but you can not forsee that maybe that horse breaks a leg during the race 😂
That's the thing... No matter how promising the future looks, things might not work out like planned... Who would have thought the entire Envion ICO would turn out the way it did?
I am clueless also. In 2012 when I first heard of BC. I laughed it off. What if I would have mined & HODL'd.?
I have 2k of BitTube. At just under a nickle per. USD. Laughable right now, but.... Big Big Butt.... What if 5 yrs. From now it goes to the moon. I have spent $0 to get em. Well.... electricity on a few comps that would have been running anyways doing something, if not mining.
I have spend $10 on ETH to convert to Steem. I will never be a large investor. As all my time, $ and effort is put into this small business called Trucking. Very little return on that also.
But like you, I follow along, and try to learn from others like You.
No advice here, as my micro-HODL. Is nothing like your problem.
Good Luck @simplymike I will follow you along from here on with your journey into the Crypto-unknown.
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Lmao.... that meme is hilarious 😂
I've never even heard of BitTube. From the sound of it, it might be the follow up of BitRadio, lol. I got some of those for free by listening to some radio stations. I can't get access to my portfolio right now, but I think Bitradio was still in the list. (...) Yep. Checked CMC: BRO is worth $0,017974 right now, so I'm definitely in the green for those 😂
Wow... 2012. Wasn't that the year of the famous BTC pizza? (...)No. Just looked it up... it was 2010 when a guy ordered 2 pizzas and paid 10 000 BTC for those. 😂😂
If you had bought back then, I think you wouldn't have to worry about anything today.
Not to mention the feeling of satisfaction, lol.
Since I bought my BTC at$700, it was kinda funny to see people panicking when it dropped to $3000. For me, that meant I still had my investment x4... 😂
But you have fun doing it' right?
I've been spending way too much time, $ and effort into SteemIt actually. But a girl's gotta do something when recovering from surgeries and spending almost a year lying flat on the bed... 😉
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The thing with charts is that they are partly a fiction, but they tell a story that everyone believes in. There are two kinds of traders: chartists and fundamentalists. The third kind is a rookie ;-)
I used to write a day-trading blog and one gets very cynical about the pump and dump advice that churns around the markets pretending to be insights. I truly can't be bothered to write one about cryptos as few people want to read some real analysis - indeed have come across very few crypto blogs that looked interesting.
So... I would suggest learning more about the coins, either the fundamentals or the technical analysis. Thing is, if you made a mistake in the past then you're likely to repeat it in the future. Just imagine BTC back to $20,000 - do you sell then or wait for 22k or 25k... You see, same dilemma.
You can even blog about what you learn :-) Will likely be more illuminating than the pump'n'dumpsters.
Oh yeah... advice! erm... pretend you bought everything yesterday and take it from there.
No one can predict the future. You can search for patterns - they are there - but even then it takes only 1 unexpected event to break a pattern. It's a bit like betting on horses, imo. You may have figured out which horse is most likely to win, but you can't forsee that it breaks a leg during the race, lol.
True, but that takes up a lt of time and energy, which I don't have. And same story... you can never be sure
Again, spot on. Sometimes I wonder if I should sell right now. I'd get 10x of what I paid for it (minus what I spent buying stupid altcoins 😁).
Up until now, I'm still holding. So indeed, same mistake. I guess it would be smart to sell and try to find a low(er)-cost altcoin with a great future.
After all, BTC is a 'only' a first generation blockchain...
Some food for thought 😁
Solid advice. The truth is that my biggest loss is Steem. When the price dropped from $7 to $4, it seemed like a great opportunity. When it dropped to $1, it felt like a great opportunity again, lol. But for some strange reason, I rarely worry about the loss. Maybe because I got so much in return (not financially, of course - but in like a zillion other ways)
It's not about "being sure", it's about being more right than wrong.
It's not just the patterns, it's also the strategy.
;-)
But perhaps it isn't about the right price, but about getting rid of your worry about it.
Story of my life 😂
Very solid thoughts and consideration so many of us are going through right now. We tend to learn so much and mostly from our mistakes. When studying the indicators and resistance and sentiment, it is easy to forget about the basics.
The 2 basics I am sticking with now are Buy the Dip, and buy low/sell high.
I am not cashing out when it is low so hodling is my strategy for now. I am getting out of some of the alts when they jump and sticking it back into my top 10.
I think there will be a nice short term run and then a longer term down as things correct as they always do. Just practicing to see the signs and only gamble money I can afford to lose.
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It is a bit like gambling' isn't it. I like howyou use that word, because I just compared crypto investments with betting on horse races twice in replies to other comments on this post.
Fortunately, the first thing I learned when I started was exactly that: do not invest more than you are prepared to lose 😁
In general, I'm no good at following rules, but this one I did follow, lol.
But how do you know the dip is the dip? That is something I always wondered... When the price of Steem dropped from $7 to $4 it looked like the dip to me. Same thing happened when it dropped to $1. Lol, look at us now... struggling to keep the $0.4. Is this the dip, then?
I'm definitely going to pay attention again, but like it was stated in one of the other comments: I didn't sell my BTC when it was at its ATH. There's a big chance I won't sell my altcoins either when I'm in profit again. After all, I'm still hodling my BTC, although it is worth 10x what I paid for it.
During the next couple of days, I wil be weighing off the pros and cons, though. But imagine I sell it and it doubles in price... I would feel so stupid 😂
I like to read blogs of people who follow the simple indicators. @vanessav seems to have taken the lessons we all learned and is trading against USD for profit in this consolidating market.
Ask the most basic question. What the coin offer to the mainstream population?
Keep increase your Steem account and Steem On!
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I agree with the fact that this should be the basic question. But reality is different, if you ask me. According to.that question, BTC should probably be worth like a Dollar or so...
Or maybe I'm.missing something?
Never compare the price of BTC with fiat value. In the future, this will not mean anything and maybe the price will be priced in crypto price instead.
Who knows...
But it is a habit you don't just get rid of.
It's been almost 18 years since we started using Euro instead of our national currency, but still I have to do the math for some things, as a reference
I've got to hold, but will sell it all when it goes up enough and never have anything to do with ever again
Really?
Although I've never been a day to day trader and I've neglected my portfolio for more than a year, the interest is still there. I can't imagine walking away from.it forever...