Can you help me with that Poker Hand ?

elbiasto (57)in #poker • 6 years ago

Replay Hand: https://www.boomplayer.com/28676627_F672016364
Blinds: 300/600
Position: BigBlind
Cards: Ah7c

PREFLOP:
Me: raises 1200 to 1800
Player 2: folds
Player 3: calls 1200
FLOP Jd7sAs
Player 3: checks
Me: bets 2063
Player 3: calls 2063

Turn Kd
Player 3: checks
Me: bets 5400
Player 3: raises 30210 to 35610
Me: folds
Player 3: doesn't show hand
*** SUMMARY ***
Player 3 collected (19051)

What Range do you think Player 3 has at that Turn Spot ? You call ? You fold ? Why ?

6 years ago in #poker by elbiasto (57)

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markgritter (59) 6 years ago

As Dan Harrington says, there's about 10% chance he's just doing something strange.

He doesn't know you have two pair. You probably could have caught a piece of the flop, but he might put you on any Ace, any Jack, or even a seven, or put you on a semibluff. So I think two pair is in his range to make this move in a cheap tournament.

I would estimate his legit range to play this way is JJ, 77, KJ, K7, J7, QT, or maybe two spades possibly with the Ks or Js. AA/KK seem unlikely, he'd probably raise preflop. A super-strong draw might try to take it down on the flop. He might defend with any ace, but probably not check-raise the turn.

Your odds are 47,451 : 24,480, about 1.6 : 1. Do you have 40% chance of being ahead here?

Losing: JJ, 3 possibilities, 77, 3 possibilities, QT, 16 possibilities
Winning: KJ, 9 possibilities, K7, 9 possibilities, J7, 9 possibilities, flush draw

So if you think he would pull this with two pair or just a semibluff, you should call and expect to lose a lot. If you have doubts, though, it's a fold.

$0.03

2 votes

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