NL River Bluff: thoughts on my line? 5 Steem bounty
This is in a 2-5-10 game at sugarhouse. I have about $3000 in front of me and most playsrs including the villain covers me. The buy in for this game is 3k. There is a little over 20k at the table ans the game plys loose pre flop with reatively few 3bets
Pre Flop
I am in middle position, there is a raise by a pro and a call of $35.
I look at A5dd and elect to call. (I would sometimes call, sometimes fold and sometimes 3b this). Two caller and the small blind raises to $150.
The initial raiser calls. I elect to call and one other player calls.
Flop
852 one d two ss
4 players to the flop, i have positions on 3 of them. The 3bettor in the sb tanks and then bets $250
I decide to call
turn
K852 still with 2 spades
SB bets $375
At this point I made the decision to float and represent a set.
river
The river is brick, the flush does not come in
He tanks a bit and then bets 600.
I bet $1800 and have just a few hundred behind.
Thoughts on my line? The villain has a huge stack is middle age white guy that seems to be a very solid decent player. I think he is a regular but not a pro.
I like the line in the way that I think (of course depending on the opponents)it’s profitable in the long run. Most players don’t riverbluff and I think his riverbet (only 1/3 of the pot) is often a blocker with 10s-QQs not beating the king. Well played sir 😁!
So awesome to see u here on steem!!!!
One question about the post, you say it's 4 handed and you have position on 3 of them. You are last to act, no?
Here goes my hand analysis.
Preflop: standard initial call of 35 in position 300+ big blinds deep especially with one caller already. Standard call of the 3-bet as well. If anything I would be happy to see the 3-bet and see the flop being last to act this deep with A5 of diamonds.
Flop: For me this is where this hand gets a big more difficult to advise without knowing your rep at the table, and without knowing how agro/ranges of the SB. I'm going to say a non pro would be hesitant to continuation bet air on the flop. I would try to take to this pot on the flop here. I would raise bigger than normal to around 900. The SB only has to fold around 50% of the time to make this profitable. Honestly in this spot with your description I raise to 900 60% of the time, float 20%, and fold 20%. So I don't hate your play at all, and would find myself in the same position often. I would say the absolute bottom of his range is 77, as I don't think AQ even continuation bets this flop into 3 other players. If he has spades especially with the Ace of spades, he doesn't take long to bet this flop, so lets take him off AQ AJ of spades.
Turn: Everyone knows this King smashes the SB's range of AK and KQ suited type hands. This hits all his non pair hands the SB could have possible 3-bet preflop, and then continuation bet the flop with. Does a set slow play the turn? I wouldn't slow play that flop if I had a set. You are representing a hand that doesn't get played like how you played it at this point, and we all know what happens trying to bluff when you are reping the unrepable (I don't think that is that a word).
River: If you want to bluff this river, shove imo it just looks much stronger and looks like you are trying to get value. My internet read on you in this hand would be to call you down with a pair as low as pocket 99.
Super fun to do a hand breakdown on Steemit. All my analysis is predacated on you being last to act and folded around to after the SB's continuation bet.
Just followed you. :--)
Thanks for this analysis.
I am puttingr this guy on a much tighter range.
I think villain never cbets unless he has a made hand. I think his range is ak+ qq+ maybe some jj+ or 10+ but i think he calls with most of that. Not sure if he balances this value part.
If he does i dont think he does not cbet into 3 players so i am putting him on a value range exclusively. The exception being a flush draw of course.
Now on thmy flop i feel i have enough ev to continue.
On the turn my hand is useless and i am strictly decising to turn my hand i to a bluff. I am representing a set exclusively.
I dont see the point of raising at any point but the river as i would not with a set. I have position with a set and i will never fold no matter what runout so whats the point of a raise ever. My goal is to get as big a pot as possible. So if i play the value this way my bluff has tonplay the same way.
Interested to see your reaponse to this.
I would also most of the time not continue with my hand, but i do have to balance and bluff some time.
The main part of this hand where we disagree is that I think pocket 88, 55, 22 (flopped sets) should each raise that flop if they are in your position. As played I would never guess you had a set by the way you repped it. If you did have the patience to slow play a set on flop and turn, a shove would be the more natural play too on the river. So I think as played you should have shoved river instead of leaving a bit behind.
His range after betting the turn is absolutely only AA, KK, QQ, JJ, 88, Ax ss, AK, and KQ.. I would call you down with that range minus the busted flush draw, which I think he rarely has on the river.
Very interesting to read your thoughts. I would never raise a set here. But certainly bet if he checked. I think he has to call down as well and players tend to not bluff this way.
So my question to you: How would construct your range here? Assuming you want to have bluffs and value?
oh btc-dialog is also knircky
Oh and I followed u back. Did u know there is a bounty on this?
Yes, but I wasn't quite sure the rules of the bounty. So I just jumped right into the hand history, and then gave my reaction. I just wanted to add value to your post, so I didn't enter as much because of the bounty. @birdbanter directed me to your post here because he knows I used to play for a living.
Thats cool. U will get a piece of it anyhow!
I don't like the initial call. I'd have folded. I also don't like the second call, a low pair is weak, and you have little to bluff on except a set, which you'd have to bluff slow-playing. You are likely a much more accomplished player than I am (I looked at your wallet, and guess you've accumulated some poker winnings here) , and you're at the table so have a much better feel for your competition, but my guess you're just beat and don't have the stack to force a fold. I think you lose no matter what here.
Thanks for the Upvote. I've not seen many poker posts on Steemit. Keep on posting hand analysis scenarios. It is fun to think about. I don't play much anymore since online poker became a serious crime in WA state. This situation sucks.
Yea maybe we should do more of it
Hi @knirky
I am glad to see professional poker players here :)
My thoughts on your hand:
Preflop: I think your preflop line is okay.
Flop: I would fold here, because there were 4 people on the flop and betting out of position in 3 people is a very strong bet in my opinion.
Turn: You want to respresent a set. But there are many people that play a flushdraw or an OESD the same way. I you want to respresent a set you are willing to bluffbet the river mostly. That risky, but thats okay.
River: In my opinion its definetly a fold here. Villain is pot commited with his bet. You can only bluff here if villain does not bet.
You have to ask yourself: What do you want to cause with your bet?
Good Luck on the tables!
edit: are you german? :D
So i am unsure of the flop, but i would certainly fold here most of the time.
Same on turn. On turn all my ev is gone. So sometime I will turn the bottom of range i to a bluff, which i decided ro do here.
I cannot just show up with a value range when i play a steong line like this.
On the river i disagree. It seems much easier to represent strenght with a raise vs a bet. If i had aa on river i would check call in villains position. When he bets and calls my raise all but sets are only good if calling a bluff
If the stacks were bigger you are right, but not at this stack size in my opinion. He ist pot commited.
Hmmm interesting play. I didn't feel the table like you, but if you ask me the moves are a bit strange. Personally I would have probably flop-folded. I don't like middle pairs, especially not below 8.
The turn brings a K, which we don't have + flush is far away. Based on your previous call, I get why you might call the turn, but it starts to get really expensive. Unless you have a special feeling about the table now, it doesn't seem like a moment to make a call. Either a fold or a raise would be my move.
River unfortunately doesn't bring us anything. What made you confident enough to make the 1800 bet? What was the first second response from the middle age white guy?
So given how deep we are generally like playing multi hands, which is why I continued prweflop with A5s.
We have just a tiny amount EV on the flop, but position and a bunch of chips.
The turn is not an ideal card for us. It may be conceivable that we have KK but I would think villain would expects us to raise with that.
So I basically made a decision on the turn to just bluff and represent a set. Basically representing 22, 55, or 88 and some tiny amounts of KK.
I also felt from his bet sizing that he thought he was ahead but given how he bet I was putting him on JJ, QQ, AA, KK.
And I basically was thinking that he ought to be able to fold, but wasn't good enough.
The point is in these spots one cannot only always have the goods, we also have to put in a few of bluffs. So I simply decided to use this opportunity to bluff to balance my range.
I cannot call with A5 and always fold unless I have a flush, trips or 2p. If I play this way, prweflop does not work and I won't get paid with my sets.
But overall I was not sure of this was a decent play and made sense
Cool to read how your thought process works! Makes sense and indeed, we can't always have the goods only :-)
I used to play poker quite often, but nowadays I rarely do. Still think it is an awesome game!
Same for me, used to make some money with that before crypto started doing that for me and before the general online level seriously raised :-)
I put him on AA, QQ, KK JJ and thought he would be able to fold all but the KK obviously.
What about 22 or 88? Or do you think he would have played those very differently?
Yes he was the pre flop 3 bettor, I think he calls with that range exclusively.
It is all about range of possibilities these days. I hope you allow me to say i don't like your play at all. The only thing you can represent is a set and in the theory of ranges, that is a small chance and the villain should call you, you should have never got into this from the flop on, it is a nice 2 cards for the initial call but then... Villain might have put you on a pair of kings too...
Yes very true. Thank you for ur opinion! I was trying to rep a set and thought that:
I dont like the play either. I assume you straddle in the game?
When the game relativly loose passive preflop I would respect the few 3 bets when you face on especially from the blinds.
With midpair and a backdoor flush the flop call is fine especially as it is under halfpotsize.
But you have to consider here already that
a) he is betting oop into 4 players
I assume everyone else folds the flop?
if not b) you would rarely call a set on the flop against multiple opponents especially with such good odds to outdraw you
The turn decision should have been made on the flop already
He shows strenght again and there is no real reason to not believe him and I would fold here.
As played I would push the river for maximize the fold equity.
If I want to bluff I would start on the turn with a size which allows me for a river bet with 3/4 potsize so he dont have an easy call. But imo that is not the setup for a bluff.
I don't like the turn raise as what do I represent? If I had a set, why would I raise? So now it looks like I just have draw. Maybe AK of spades makes sense. But even with that why would I raise? So simply raising the turn I cannot see any of my range that I would do this with.
So I simply thought that if I bluff it has to be on the river, as also this is where very few players bluff and thus my line would be more credible.
Hate it. You know old men don’t fold big pairs in 3 bet pots...river bluff is bad
thx Adam! So then just fold pre?
How would u balance ur range then. What hands would u use to balance ur value range?
Don't mind the calls, but might have pushed back on the turn to try and take the pot then and there while it was less expensive.
So the solid decent player took some time and folded right? J's?
i m interested in this game. How can i start to learn this ?