How Thailand's coup leader Prayuth retained his power through the elections

Thailand's former army chief, General Prayuth Chan o-cha, was confirmed by Parliament as prime minister on Wednesday (5 June 2019). In doing so, he completed his transition from the coup to the head of a civilian government under a system that almost guaranteed his victory.

The junta, which seized power almost five years ago, had already banned all political activity shortly after the coup. All debates were suppressed, the media severely curtailed, and many dissidents were jailed just months before the March 24 parliamentary elections.

Prayuth also benefited from the Senate of the Upper Chamber with its 250 members, who had previously been fully appointed by the Junta and the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO).

As a further push for General Prayuth, the electoral commission, following the March poll, unceremoniously changed the distribution of seats for the 500-member lower house, reversing the planned majority for the anti-junta Democratic Front.

"The new script has the rules in favor of the junta ... and the referees are also on their side to keep them in power," said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a professor at Chulalongkorn University in Bangkok.

Despite these built-in advantages, the opposition Pheu Thai Party won most seats in the House of Representatives. Second was the pro-military Palang Pracharath party, which was essentially set up to support Prayuth's push into civilian politics.

The Senate's votes secured Prayuth his term, but his new government will be an unstable coalition with only a four-seat majority in the House of Commons and a determined democratic front of seven parties still seeking to end military dominance.

This will probably make it difficult for the government to pass laws. In addition, the government has become very susceptible to vote of no confidence against some critics.

"With the rules that they had formulated in their favor even then they have not done well," said Professor Thitinan.

Prayuth's Palang Pracharath party is simply overwhelmed with any suggestion that the new government it leads is anything but a reflection of the people's will, he said.

"We have already had a democratic election, so it can not be said that this is somehow an extension of his power from before," said the party's deputy spokesman, Thanakorn Wangboonkongchana, on General Prayuth.

"This is an extension of the goal of protecting the nation, religion, and monarchy, and not an expansion of dictatorial power," Thanakorn said.

For many traditionalists, a military-affiliated government is acceptable, as the army is seen as the ultimate guarantor of stability and traditional power structures.

Last month, King Maha Vajiralongkorn was officially crowned in lavish ceremonies and succeeded his father, who had ruled for more than 70 years until his death in 2016.

After two coups in a decade, this year's election was the military's attempt to rid politics once and for all of the influence of the dismissed Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra and his sister Yingluck, its affiliated parties - who advocated a hugely popular policy for the poor - had won four elections, said Prajak Kongkirati, a political scientist at Thammasat University opposite the news agency Reuters.

"This coup is different from earlier coups when the military intervened and then resigned. This time, they came to reorganize things and stay in the long run, "Prajak said.

"So they had to hold elections and manipulate the results," he added

Under a new constitution, the Senate, previously an elected body, will be appointed in a junta-controlled process, and for the first time in two decades, together with the House of Commons, will be given permission to vote on a prime minister.

The composition of the House of Representatives has also been changed - from 375 directly elected seats to 350 - and the allocation of the remaining 150 "party seats" has been changed from a simple proportional system to a complex formula that assigns seats with a "value".

The stated goal is to give the smaller parties a voice and to prevent the dominance of a big party - as was the case with the Pro Thaksin parties in the past.

But when the election results were counted, the opposition Democratic Front, led by Thaksin Allies Pheu Thai and the new Future Forward Party, predicted they would win a majority of 254 seats in the House of Representatives.

However, the Electoral Commission then said that it would delay the publication of the results of the 150 "party seats" until the coronation of King Vajiralongkorn on 4 May.

When the party seats were finally cleared last month, the electoral commission had already changed the allocation formula, assigning 10 small parties each a seat that was largely assigned to the Future Forward Party. The 10 parties announced soon after an alliance with the Palang Pracharat party.

The new distribution of seats denied the Democratic Front its proposed majority in the House of Representatives, which would at least give them the power to block laws or at least give a vote of no confidence.

And while some predict that Prayuth's cumbersome coalition of 19 parties will not survive a year, other politicians are no longer quite so sure.

Titipol Phakdeewanich, the Dean of the Political Science Department at Ubon Ratchathani University, said he did not expect major changes for four or five years as the military would not easily relinquish power.

"By being able to infiltrate all aspects of the political mechanism, the military can retain power in the long term," said Titipol.

Sources: Thai Visa, Nachrichtenagentur Reuters, Thailand Tip, Al Jazeera