SBD Graph Time! (Does anyone else snapshot SBD supply figures?)
For the longest time I've been wondering about getting historical graphs of SBD supply. Obviously this is an important thing to track if you are an active trader, but for me it's just to keep tabs on its progress.
I've recently been scraping data from steem nodes to fetch the SBD supply, basically the info you would get from steemd and recording its value every day. (I am wondering if anyone else has been doing this, so we can get accurate numbers for this).
But recently I searched around and found this post which has a method for grabbing historical data that you can roughly derive the supply from. It's a bit up and down though, and I've filled it in with my own data over the past few months.
So I put what I have so far in a public spreadsheet that you are free to copy and play with. The link is here. My data is in column L that I've been scraping, and I'll see if I can fish other posts that have been tracking this in the past also. You can also play with filters to restrict the date range and the chart will reflect that as well.
One of the fun things you can do with it is fetch historical price data using the CryptoFinance google Sheets add-on. This was a very useful service I used to help with tax reporting as well (another story).
Anyway, let's get to some interesting graphs.
This starts from January of 2017, and plots SBD supply (left axis) with the STEEM price (right axis). You'll notice a smoothing of the SBD supply towards the end, where I have the more accurate data, and a slight blip (since in my polling I lost a couple days of data). I basically want to highlight here that the STEEM price is driving the changes in SBD supply. If you've been following my posts about SBD and payouts, this should come as no surprise to you. Basically, when STEEM price is high, you'll note that the rate that SBD is printed also becomes higher.
This is entirely as it should be, because as far as the platform is concerned, the value of your post is essentially in STEEM, and it pays half of it as STEEM, and half of it in what it thinks is the conversion equivalent of SBD, never mind what the market values SBD as. And this creates a natural mechanism for the desired peg to be satisfied. If STEEM price is well supported, the platform prints more SBD in reaction, and that naturally will drive prices down in the long run. And then the platform has mechanisms to support the price of SBD to peg it at 1 USD (mainly the conversion mechanism, which nobody sees anymore but is still there).
The moral of this story?
- The better STEEM does, the more you should be worried about the value of your SBD.
But, in the interim, the supply is still tiny and easily manipulated with respect to other cryptocurrencies, so we may yet still see some fun spikes to throw off the long term analysis. And can someone please tell me if the money that's on the exchanges is aware of this or not? Because I have a hard time believing that they are aware of this.
How does the increase in recent users come into play? Is the SBD in anyway linked to the number of people using steemit and its accessory apps? Do you think more users will drive the price up or will the blockchain compensate?
Well that's definitely a possibility, which is why I had a disclaimer about there still beimg possibilities of the price spiking despite its natural long term inclination. But it is interesting to consider how many new users would actually be buying SBD. Perhaps if they were all told to buy it for use with bid bots it might contribute to more demand, but it's hard to say.
Interesting.
I have a hypothesis. It may seem narcissistic but the price of steem is directly linked to my buying activity. When I buy, it's at its highest value; when I sell, it's at its lowest. It's linked in dark matter or god or something.
You can change that by buying more whenever it goes down :P
hahah, that's the tricky part... I seem to be 'colourblind' to downs and ups :S
This is most likely true. Many traders operate in small groups and with limited supply they most likely see an easy to manipulate token, which is also rather down the marketcap rankings and thus more fun to play with.
I doubt most of those gamblers do even known about the debt mechanism. It’s just a game to many, or should that be to few crypto whales? Their interest is more likely the amount available on a specific exchange because there needs to be room to play when they initiate another pump. What is surprising with the fluctuation in SBD is often that pumps stay at a certain for extended period of time which means those playing dump slower than we tend to see with other tokens.
Lots of people seem to be praying for another pump too. Let's see if they oblige ;)
People will still be wanting another pump when SBD trades at $55. Because never enough.
Did you just say it'll hit 55$???!!! Well steemit, you heard it here first!
The day SBD hits $55 I will eat my imaginary dark chocolate hat.
So the SBD peg to 1 dollar would only come into play once the STEEM price has better support? Are people actually investing in SBD as well or is it just pure demand for its utility as payment for bots etc?
I don't know the answer to this which is why I asked, about SBD.
I will say even if STEEM stays put, the SBD print rate is still pretty high. It just would take longer for the peg to hit.
The idea is that the peg is a peg because it is pegged to Steem (not to the USD). The guarantee is that you will (almost) always get $1 worth of Steem for 1SBD.
Important about that is that SBD is pegged to Steem, not to anything else. As such, endless that peg is enforced in the code (and possible also actually tethered to an equivalent amount in real world value) the free market will decide the value of the SBD. In other words... traders.
Check out this now two years article by @dan to get an insight in what the vision was.
Hi @eonwarped
Does this mean that there will be no devaluing of SBD to get it back to US$1 when Steem stays stable and SBD price raise even though they will always try and get it back to US$1?
Interesting question. So even now we're at a point where many witnesses would still like a mechanism to push the value down to 1 USD faster (see posts about reverse conversion, will dig up a link when I get a chance), but for now, there is no quick mechanisms that will manipulate the supply quickly to reduce the price (and people aren't sure this is a smart idea either since they are backed by steem's market cap with the conversion mechanism).
What do you mean by devaluing? (Steem being stable and high still means the rate of SBD printing is maintained)
By printing (pushing more coins into circulation) extra SBD coins you are devaluing SBD. See my post on what SBD would have been if there was no printing of SBD coins since what I call the First Cycle here - Section on Effect of Increase In Circulation Supply. If there was no printing of SBD coins the price would have been close to US$40 but we have seen a > 1000% increase in coins in circulation which means SBD is being devalued.
There might be different terminology if it is intended to go down to US$1 but for all intents and purposes it is being devalued.
If you take into account that SBD was always intended to be US$1 then it is my opinion that they will make it go back to US$1 irrespective of what Steem does.
Ah okay I see your point. So that print rate is solely controlled by the witness feed price, which in normal operation is just the USD market price. They could choose to tweak it to make it higher, but they seem very unwilling to do so (unintentional consequences in a bear market, etc). So it is still married with steem price in a sense. But even this mechanism is slow and not effective at pushing prices down to 1 USD. And no other options really exist at the moment.
what do you think is the reason why these past months Steem is greater than SBD?
I assume you are talking about price. I don't have ideas about that. I would like to say that the market is wisening up to SBD supply growth but eh. It's hard to say.
i see. it's really hard to say especially since the fluctuations are unpredictable. i guess it also has something to do with the amount of SBD supply
Do you think sbd will be higher than steem like before? or are those days over?
I think it's still possible, because the supply is still relatively low. But you never know....
Aja! Hopefully it will go up! Hopefully, I have enough SBD for me to cashout. lol ^^
FINE Work, Captain EON!
I have been wondering of late if the "Peg Mechanism" will work once SBD supply is large enough to possibly trigger the reverse situation, of "limiting supply" to keep prices UP TO One U$D? Do you have any data on how this peg works to Boost Prices?
It's not from limiting the supply. It's from agreeing to honor conversions at a rate of 1 SBD = 1 USD worth of steem. Simply put, if the price goes down, one could buy a lot of SBD, convert to steem, and buy back SBD. The catch is that there is a 3 day delay on conversions, but it doesn't really matter if the price of steem isn't increasing like crazy. (If the price decreases, it's better for the conversion)
The other mechanism is that witnesses can set interest rates to encourage holding SBD. But now that I think about it... I'm not really sure how that works since that seems to increase the supply too. (Or perhaps it comes at the expense of the rewards pool). I'll have to revisit that part.
@eonwarped You have received a random upvote from @transparencybot for not using bidbots on this post and using the #nobidbot tag!