DFS DRAWING BOARD - NFL Week 5 - Running Backs

big-e (56)in #sports • 6 years ago

Welcome back to another fantasy football article geared towards all you DFS players out there. It's Week 5 and we are just getting started in putting our lineups together. I am personally excited for this weekends action as we have several games with high totals which should lead to offensive showdowns. As of this writing, there are 5 games with totals exceeding 50 points.

Last week Sony Michel, Gio Bernard, and Melvin Gordon all were mentioned in the article and all performed very well. The other two mentions, Saquon Barkley and Tevin Coleman did alright and at the very least didn't bust your lineup. Much of those selections were matchup and game flow prediction driven. Let's try to follow a similar strategy this week and sort out who we should be starting at RB Week 5 DFS.

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It's another great week at the RB position and I think we have some excellent guys to choose from. As always, if you enjoy these articles please upvote, share, and comment on your weekly outlook. Keep in mind, pricing below is based of DraftKings pricing. FanDuel and other sites may differ slightly in pricing which ultimately could affect the value of a player. That being said, here are my top plays at the running back position for Week 5.

RUNNING BACKS

Christian McCaffrey - Carolina Panthers

$8,000 / vs. NYG / CAR + 6.5

My favorite high priced guy on Sunday. McCaffrey has been a beast this season with little to no competition in the backfield. He is also getting a considerable amount of goal line touches, something that is usually left to either a fullback or Cam Newton himself. He has incredible pass catching ability but questions remained regarding his usage as a pure runner. Week 3 put that to rest when he rushed 28x for 184 yards. McCaffrey is averaging a powerful 5.9 yards a carry this season as well as over 8 targets a game as a receiver. He is the full package at RB and can put up some crooked numbers on PPR sites with his ability to run and catch.

His opponent this week, the New York Giants, have been getting killed by the RB position. For 2018, they have given up an average of 126 rushing yards per game on top of a 4.8 yards per carry average. In terms of position specific points, the Giants rank 22nd in the league, giving up an average of 19.5 points to RBs. They offer no significant improvement vs. backs in the receiving game, where the Giants rank below average with over 8 targets a game and over 5 receptions a game to RBs. All of this plays out favorably for McCaffrey and I believe he continues to shine vs. the Giants.

James Conner - Pittsburgh Steelers

$7,500 / vs. ATL / PIT +3

Everyone expects the Pittsburgh / Atlanta game to be a pure shootout with the total as of this writing sitting at 58 points. Lots of offensive scoring leads to great fantasy production and James Conner is one guy from that game I am making every attempt to get into my lineups. Although his production as a runner has basically fallen off a cliff since Week 1, I am more intrigued by his receiving ability out of the backfield. Through 4 weeks of play, Conner is averaging 6 targets a game and over 41 yards a game receiving. Time and time again, the Falcons have shown the inability to stop receiving backs. McCaffrey, Kamara, and Bernard have all touched Atlanta in the receiving game out of the backfield. I mean literally destroyed Atlanta in the receiving game, giving up an average of almost 14 targets a game to RBs. Now Conner may not be the pass catching back of those 3 mentioned, but he is an awfully good receiver out of the backfield. Knowing how bad Atlanta is against receiving backs and knowing Conner usage in the pass game, I am very interested to utilize him this weekend in DFS. It's also worth noting that Atlanta isn't good against the rush either. According to NFL.com, the Falcons are the 7th worst team in the league giving up 119 yards a game on a 5.0 yards per carry average. Conner has is a solid runner but Pittsburgh has simply trailed early in games and abandoned any sign of a running game. News out of Pittsburgh is that they want to get back to rushing the football and seem committed to feed Conner more often. All signs point positive for James Conner this weekend and he lands as one of my favorite targets.

T.J. Yeldon - Jacksonville Jaguars

$5,600 / at KC / KC +3

Yeldon continues to lead the Jaguars backfield with Fournette sidelined with injury. Although a pretty significant step down from Fournette, Yeldon has actually done a great job in the lead role, coming off a 24 DraftKings performance in Week 4 vs. the Jets. His overall production has been very balanced with action coming as a runner and a receiver out of the backfield. Again, on PPR sites, we love receiving backs and Yeldon fits that bill. He and the Jaguars face off in what should be a really fun game against the Kansas City Chiefs. Its a heavy weight match between what is considered the NFL's best defense vs. this years most explosive offense. In either case, the matchup for the Yeldon and the Jaguars offense is excellent. The Chiefs rank 31st in the league vs. the RB position, giving up 29 points per game. Moreover, they are surrendering over 105 yards per game to RBs on a 5.54 yards per attempt average as well as over 9 targets a game to RBs (sourced here). Just an all around great situation for any RB facing the Chiefs, especially those that are part of the passing game. Yeldon in this matchup instantly becomes a top target for this weekend. At $5,600 this week, he will be a bit chalky but offers decent value if he can continue to produce as a receiver.

Matt Breida - San Francisco 49ers

$5,700 / vs. ARI / SF + 3.5

Matt Breida is clearly the best RB for the 49ers but they continue to split his carries with Alfed Morris. Even in that situation, which hopefully will start to end and favor Breida more, Breida has been extremely productive. He is averaging around 10 carries a game on an incredible 7.6 yards per carry average. He is also active as a receiver with 10 receptions on the year. The matchup with Arizona is ideal for any running back as they are giving up the 2nd most yards per game at 141.2. They also are ranked dead last in the NFL vs. the RB position giving up 31 points per game in fantasy. The 49ers lost Jimmy G in Week 3, so they likely will be looking to lean on the running game more often. It doesn't get much better than that. Breida remains a risk because of the timeshare split but if you want to take on some risk, he is in a perfect situation and if given the opportunity, should easily capitalize.

OTHER CONSIDERATIONS

Melvin Gordon - $8,600 - Chargers

Has been a great play all season and typically lands on my regular play list. Great usage both as a runner and in passing game. Good matchup vs. Oakland who has mostly been weak against the rush.

Aaron Jones - $4,300 - Packers

If Aaron Rodgers gets his way, Jones will be the lead back. Packers are decimated at receiver so running backs should get an uptick in passing game usage. Jones is clearly the best RB on the team and should continue to carve out a bigger role for himself. Packers need to take a lead and rely on the run in this game.

That about wraps it up for Week 5 running backs. Let me know in the comments what your thoughts at the position are for this weekend. Good luck out there and lets win some money!