DFS DRAWING BOARD - NFL Week 9 - Running Backs

big-e (56)in #sports • 5 years ago

We are back at it with another article for Week 9 of the NFL season, this time focusing on the RB position. To be honest, of all positions this week, I am most confident in my RB selections. There are several exciting - high scoring games to pay attention to this weekend, many of which include RBs we want to roster. We are headed right back to the well with some high performing backs in great spots and add a couple value plays that should pay off big. Here are our top backs heading into Week 9.

James Conner and Kareem Hunt did awesome for us last week while other plays like Isaiah Crowell and Doug Martin couldn't get anything going. The good news is that most of our plays that cost signficant salary such as Conner and Hunt paid off big while other mid-tier players such as Peterson and Lindsay also did really well. The lesser expensive value plays is where we missed. So lets learn from that and focus on finding value plays that will pay off going into Week 9.

Each week we take a step back to review the upcoming weeks matchups and crunch the numbers to develop a series of position specific articles related to top daily fantasy sports plays. Whether you are playing on FanDuel, DrafKings, or even configuring your season long NFL lineups, these articles should serve as a reference tool and helpful guide to choosing the best players. I've shortened these articles to give you only the necessities and bottom-line reasoning as to my top choices. This is a no bullshi*t article and by that I mean the players and plays I suggest are those that I will be using in my personal lineups. Nothing is excluded. We intend to win. The goal is to make great lineups, win money, and share our success stories. If you are new to my blog or daily fantasy sports in general, I encourage you to check out my DFS Introduction post which provides some general context on what DFS is and how to play. Spoiler alert, if you like playing fantasy sports and winning money, DFS is the platform for you. Also, if you haven’t already, feel free to follow my referral links and sign up for Fanduel and Draftkings. Each provides its own set of bonuses for new users.

With that being said, here are my top plays at the running back position for Week 9. Enjoy, upvote, and comment on your weekly outlook.

RUNNING BACKS

Kareem Hunt – Kansas City Chiefs

$7,700 / at CLE / KC – 8

Kareem Hunt is by far my favorite RB play for Week 9 in an elite matchup vs. the lowly Cleveland Browns. All the boxes are checked for Hunt this weekend. Elite back, elite offense, high usage, high game total, large favorite, and facing a team that is awful at defending the run. Hunt is receiving anywhere between 20-25 touches on a weekly basis. He doesn’t come off the field for a 3rddown back and is relied on both when ahead and when the Chiefs are trailing. That sets him up for a nice floor, regardless of matchup, each week. He has shown us upside of nearly 40 DK points and a floor of around 15 (if you exclude Week 1). That all sets the foundation. Considering all of this, Hunt becomes an elite play this weekend when factoring in the matchup vs. the Cleveland Browns. The Browns are simply a mess right now, firing both their head coach and offensive coordinator. So this game shouldn’t be remotely competitive but Hunt should still get his usage, especially if they are up by a significant amount. But even before the house clearing, the Browns were still awful against the RB position. They are surrounding over 118 yards per game and over 29 DK points per game to opposing RBs. They just got destroyed last week by James Conner who posted over 200 all-purpose yards and 2 TDs. Outside of a complete blowout by halftime and starters being removed, I believe Hunt is as safe of a start as you can get out of an RB this season. I will be playing him in all formats.

Adrian Peterson – Washington Redskins

$6,000 / vs. ATL / WAS - 1.5

For his age, Adrian Peterson has been nothing short of impressive. After struggling for a couple of years and bouncing around to various teams, he seems to have found a fit and home in Washington where he is putting together a really great season. Coming off a 149 yard game against the Giants where he averaged 5.7 yards a carry and scored 2 TDs, Peterson now has 587 (5thin NFL) rushing yards on the season and 5 total TDs. He has never been much a receiving back, which does hurt his value in PPR, but the price is right on DK at $6,000. Prior to last week, Peterson missed the 100 rushing yard bonus mark on DK by 1 yard in Week 7 and 3 yards in Week 6. Another carry or two and Peterson could have hit the bonus mark 3 weeks in a row which helps mitigate his lack of receiving. The matchup this week for Peterson is also great against the Atlanta Falcons who have been very generous to backs all season. They currently are surrendering just 81 rushing yards per game to the RB position but are allowing 8 receptions on average for a total of over 32 DK points per game, 2ndworst in the NFL. The primary receiving back, Chris Thompson is currently ailing for the Redskins and if he ends up missing the game, we likely can expect a couple more targets to come Peterson’s way. I think we can rely on Peterson at home as a favorite to get 20-25 carries against the Falcons and if things swing right, he may also see another 3-5 targets in the passing game.

Nick Chubb / Duke Johnson – Cleveland Browns

$4,500 - $3,800 / vs. KC / CLE – 8

I’ve listed both Chubb and Johnson as value plays this week at home vs. the Kansas City Chiefs simply due to matchup. Both guys are priced as values, with Duke Johnson priced particularly low. Of course the downside here is that it is always a risk to play a RB in a game in which his teams is an extreme underdog and with Cleveland as an 8 point underdog, we have that here. However, the Chiefs are literally the best matchup on paper for any opposing RB. They are currently surrendering over 110 yards rushing per game to the RB position as well as allowing on average 7 receptions to per game to RBs. It’s a win-win combination really, with backs both damaging them on the ground and through the air. According to Rotogrinders, this combination of defensive awfulness has them giving up over 33 DK points per game to RBs, ranked dead last in the NFL. Now, the decision is who to play. The less risky option is to pay up slightly to Nick Chubb who should see around 15-20 carries and hopefully add 2-3 receptions. If all goes right, Cleveland can stay within striking distance throughout the game so that Chubb can get this type of workload. However, with how amess Cleveland has become over the last week or so and KC’s elite offense, it could be a blowout by halftime. If that’s the case, Duke Johnson might be the play contrarian play. He serves primarily as a 3rddown, passing/receiving only back. Realistically, if Cleveland is down a ton, he could see 5-10 targets which against the Chiefs, could turn out to be quite profitable at only $3,800. I prefer Chubb since he does get some usage as a receiving back in addition to his typically carries but am all on-board with Johnson should you need the savings.

OTHER CONSIDERATIONS

James Conner - $7,200 – Steelers

The Steelers are rolling right now behind James Conner. Earlier this year they abandoned the run quickly vs. the Ravens but I suspect they won’t do that this weekend. It’s one of Conner’s toughest matchups so far, but he should get plenty of usage and opportunity to keep the train rolling.

Lemar Miller - $5,200 – Texans

Miller has 2 straight games of at least 18 carries and 100 yards on the ground. Denver is surrounding big yardage on the ground to opposing RBs. Miller is priced relatively cheap and should continue to continue to see good usage vs. a weak defense in a close game on the road.

Isaiah Crowell - $4,200 – Jets

Let us down last week but was tolerable due to salary. Salary has jumped $500 this week but should remain the lead back against a very weak MIA run defense. Dolphins are surrendering over 125 yards per game to RBs and 32 DK points and the Jets want to establish the run every game for their young QB. A cheap TD pays off salary.

That wraps up Week 9's RB selections. As always, good luck this weekend and lets win some money!