AFL Premiership Season Round 8 Part 3 of 3
Schedule Preview & Breakdown
Fremantle v St Kilda at Optus Stadium Saturday 12th May
Both of these sides have had a couple of weeks they would rather forget.
In Round 6, the young Dockers put the Dogs to the sword in Perth doubling their score and winning by 54 points.
The Saints, against the might of GWS, held in there all day for an honourable draw.
If it wasn't for some bad kicking at goal and an unusual dropped mark by Carlisle, the Saints would of gotten all 4 points that day.
Both teams have since lost the last two and are in danger of their seasons slipping away.
The Saints are in the more dire situation, having just 6 points for the year and languishing in the 16th spot on the ladder.
I don't know if you can have an Elimination Final in May, but I dare say we are at that point for the Saints.
Another loss here and time to spend the rest of the season planning for 2019 which might spell danger for older players Gilbert, Nathan Brown and Armitage.
On paper, the Saints midfield bats a little deeper than the Dockers but lacks the top end class of a Fyfe or a Neale.
Too much is left to Jack Steven and some days it seems he is the only one generating the run.
Seb Ross has tried his heart out and wins the hard balls. Dunstan has improved but the Saints have not received enough of a return from Billings, Steele, Sinclair or Newnes and Armitage is a shadow of his former self.
Savage tries to get some runs going from the backline and is an elite kicker but is too easily shut out of matches when oppositions pay him closer attention.
The Dockers are really missing the class and run of Brad Hill but Fyfe is back to his best and Neale is in top form as well.
Fyfe's form is so good that he would have to be close to favourite for the Brownlow and he single handedly could destroy the Saints in this match.
Freo's problem is too much can be left to too few, but they will be pleased with the continued development of Cerra and Brayshaw in that midfield.
Both look exciting players of the future and mature age recruit Banfield has also surprised with his ability to clamp down the oppositions dangerous midfielder.
Jack Steven can expect to see a bit of him on the weekend.
Neither team is particularly exciting up forward this season and the loss of McCartin (Saints) and Walters (Freo) only further hurts these teams scoring ability, but Freo seems to just find a way to score at Optus Stadium.
The old adage of a 5 goal better team at home is so true in Fremantle's case and I am tipping that will be the difference in this match.
Prediction: Fremantle by 18 points
Collingwood v Geelong at the MCG Sunday 13th May
The last match of the Round could be a case of saving the best for last with the in-form Pies meeting a strong Cats teams that is expected to have a fit Gary Ablett back playing.
This match will see two of the leagues strongest midfields do battle and will be a genuine arm wrestle.
The Pies have been brilliant the last 5 weeks and are emerging as a genuine Finals contender for 2018.
Collingwood have won 4 of their last 5 including a win over the Crows at Adelaide Oval.
The only loss was an honourable one against the Tigers where they were hugely competitive for most of the day before falling away late.
The Pies boast a strong midfield that is still led by superstar Pendlebury who is in doubt for this match with an ankle strain.
Sidebottom and Treloar have hit top form and youngster Tom Phillips is fast becoming an elite midfielder in his own right.
The emergence of Phillips has seen Taylor Adams shuffled back to the halfback line where he will look to create some run along with Cripps.
Ball use continues to be the Achilles heel of Adams is holding him back from being regarded as an elite player.
Any questions the Pies midfield asks the Cats will be answered strongly by the 'Fab Four of Danger;' Selwood, Ablett and Duncan.
This will be the first time all 5 have taken the park at the same time and will be exciting for Cats fans.
They may be the 'Fab Four' for now, but they are fast going to need to extend that number to 5 with the emergence of a new star at the Cattery.
Tim Kelly was a mature age recruit from the WAFL and his influence over matches has been immense as has the run he creates for the Cats.
Geelong raised a few eye brows by using their 2nd round pick on a mature age WAFL player but recruiting genius Wells rarely gets one wrong and this is looking like another master stroke.
Up forward, the Cats will be pleased with Hawkins' form of late but will sorely miss the goal kicking nous of Menzel for another week.
Jordan De Goey will be one to watch up forward for the Pies after his 5 goals against the Lions.
His overhead marking for his size is a real feature and he is one the undersized Cats backline will need to watch closely.
Speaking of undersized Cats backline, it is also a very inexperienced one.
Whilst the youngsters led by the amazing Stewart who seems to just get better every week have held out well so far, they are still sorely missing Harry Taylor and Lachie Henderson.
At some point an opposition forward line is going to get a hold of the Cats youngsters back there and I think Mason Cox will be a very important focal point this week for the Pies, as will Darcy Moore who will be better for the run last week.
Exposing the Cats backline is the key to winning this game for the Pies.
I am tipping the Pies midfield to at least break even with the Cats stars and give enough supply to Cox, Moore and De Goey to kick a winning score.
Prediction: Collingwood by 12 points
Kangaroos v Richmond at Etihad Stadium on Sunday 13th May
Put your hand up anyone that predicted North Melbourne would have 4 wins and be in the top 8 after 7 rounds?
Now put your hand down you liar!
Even the most optimistic Kangaroo supporter would be surprised at the standard of footy produced by Brad Scott's men.
The old adage of get a great tall forward, build a team around him and then kick it long still has a place in the game in 2018 and it's great to see.
Only in North Melbourne's case they actually have 2 great forwards!
Whilst Ben Brown is the main man, Waite is defying his age to produce arguably the best footy of his career.
The man may be 35, but he has the agility of a 25 year old.
The latter was out last week with soreness which makes the win over Sydney even more remarkable, but he is a lock to return this week.
The emergence of Mason Wood last week in Waite's place was another bonus for that Kanga's forward line and he will surely keep his spot to create a three-pronged attack.
Wood has always oozed potential but injuries kept getting in the way. Hopefully this time around he can get some continuity in his game and stay healthy.
Despite all the optimism suddenly coming out of North Melbourne they will simply be no match for a Tigers outfit that quite frankly looks to be head and shoulders above all the competition this year.
It seems no team can go with them in Melbourne over 4 quarters and Dusty, while still being extremely effective, has barely been required to move out of 2nd gear so far.
The Tigers will regain Cotchin this week but likely lose Prestia and Grigg is expected to miss one more match with that hamstring strain.
Despite winning the Premiership last year, the Tigers look to improve in 2018 and seem to be more of a complete team.
Where Dusty used to lift the side onto his shoulders and carry them over the line, their reliance on him and Cotchin is not what it used to be.
Players like Lambert, Caddy, Prestia, Edwards and youngster Graham have given that midfield more depth than ever before.
The elite pressure the Tigers apply all over the ground for 4 quarters just breaks down opposition teams and is seeing them run away with matches.
This will be a great test for the young improving North Melbourne team and will give a real indication of how far off they really are.
Anything under a 5 goal loss would be a great result for North but I can't see them going with the Tigers for very long in this match.
I hesitate to yet again underestimate the Kangaroos, but I think the North party will be put on hold for at least one week.
Prediction: Tigers to win by 60 points.
If you missed part 1 or 2 of this preview just click the hyperlink
Author: @o07
Editor: @liberty-minded
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