Coke Zero Sugar 400

Daytona International Speedway - Daytona Beach, FL
Saturday July 7, 7:00 p.m. Eastern Time on NBC
2.5 Mile Tri-Oval
Weather: Scattered Thunderstorms, 88°F

Previous Five Winners and Pole Sitters

Race	Race Winner	Pole Sitter
Spring 2018	Austin Dillon	Alex Bowman
Summer 2017	Rickey Stenhouse Jr.	Dale Earnhart Jr.
Spring 2017	Kurt Busch	Chase Elliott
Summer 2016	Brad Keselowski	Greg Biffle
Spring 2016	Denny Hamlin	Chase Elliott

The Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series returns to Florida Saturday night with the Coke Zero Sugar 400 at Daytona International Speedway. A total of 41 cars are scheduled to enter the event. It's time for restrictor-plate racing again, throw everything we know out the window because it's going to be a crapshoot.

The Favorite

There is only one thing we can be sure of when it comes to restrictor-plate races: Anybody can win. The advantages of superior horsepower and equipment mean nothing when plates are attached to the intakes to limit their effectiveness. The secret to winning a restrictor-plate race is finding a drafting partner you can trust to help push you to the front of the pack. Of course a little luck in avoiding the "Big One" doesn't hurt either.

The pitfalls of restrictor-plate racing are evident with the choice of Brad Keselowski as the race favorite this week. I have to admit Las Vegas has left me a little confused with this one. Keselowski has been consistent this year, he's fifth in the drivers points standings despite the fact that he has yet to win a race. He does have six career plate race victories, but five of them have come at Talladega. Since winning this race in 2016, his best finish at Daytona is 27th place.

So why is Keselowski the favorite? We have to dig a little deeper to find out. The best manufacturer at the restrictor-plate tracks in recent years has been Ford. Fords have won five out of the last eight races at Daytona and the last six races at Talladega. That's one advantage for Keselowski.

The second is his Team Penske teammate Joey Logano. With everyone running with the same amount of horsepower, the field will hold together around the track in a tight pack. A drafting partner to push you into the lead is essential to compete for the checkered flag. Logano has already won at Talladega this season and has finished in the top-ten in four out of his five starts at Daytona. If Keselowski and Logano can find each other in the pack, they should be able to rocket up into the lead.

Now the question is why Keselowski over Logano? Logano is already guaranteed a spot in the chase with his victory at Talladega earlier this year, Keselowski has yet to win a race. If these two drivers find themselves competing for the win, Penske will ask Logano to push Keselowski across the finish line first so he can be guaranteed a playoff spot as well. Of course Logano may say the hell with that and try to win himself, but Las Vegas is betting otherwise.

Other Drivers to Watch

Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch and Martin Truex Jr. have been the holy trinity of NASCAR this season by combining to win 13 out of 17 races this season. However, two of the four races they failed to win were the first two restrictor-plate races this season. Plates take away the horsepower advantage they hold over the rest of the field, combine that with the randomness of who gets caught in the "Big One" and the big three become mere mortals. All three are certainly capable of winning this race, but they are not overwhelming favorites like they are at most other tracks. Trying to stay out of trouble will be their main goal. Truex may have a little more incentive to win than the other two since he has never been victorious at a restrictor-plate race in 53 career starts.

"It (bad luck) has to change eventually," said Truex. "We tried some different strategies in the past but we still found trouble. Our mindset is to try and run up front, collect some stage points and hopefully end the race with a clean car and a top 10 finish in our No. 78 Bass Pro Shops/5-hour ENERGY Toyota."

Paul Menard has been a model of consistency at Daytona lately with two top-five and three top-ten finishes here in his last five starts. Although he has yet to win a plate race, he is now driving a Ford for the Wood Brothers and he took the pole at Chicagoland last week. The Wood Brothers have built winning cars for other drivers at Daytona, Menard has the ability to take one to victory lane this week.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. has two Cup Series victories in his young career, both of them have come at restrictor-plate tracks. He has shown he has what it takes to win these type of races, but he also likes to take a lot of chances. If he can be patient enough to avoid high risk situations, he may be able to notch career win number three.

"I’m really looking forward to this weekend," said Stenhouse. "Jimmy Fennig has done a great job building our superspeedway cars. Last year, we were able to get our Fifth Third Ford into victory lane. Anything can happen in typical plate racing but hopefully, we can once again get our Ford into victory lane and clinch a spot in the Playoffs."

Aric Almirola has struggled for the most part this season, but his only career victory came at the Daytona 500 in 2014. Almirola took the lead on the last lap here back in February, but had to settle for an eleventh place finish when he got caught up in a wreck. He led the most laps at Chicagoland last week, but a series of loose wheels took him out of contention for the win. His luck has to turn eventually, it can certainly happen at Daytona.

Denny Hamlin won the Daytona 500 in 2016 and finished in third place here back in February. If he can find another Toyota driver to team up with, say someone like his Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Kyle Busch, he might be able to give the Fords a run for their money.

News Around the Track

Xfinity Series driver Spencer Gallagher had his indefinite suspension lifted by NASCAR this week after completing the organizations Road to Recovery Program. Gallagher failed a drug test the day after winning his first career NASCAR Xfinity race at Talladega back in April.

"I want to assure everyone in the NASCAR community this one-time error in judgment will never happen again," Gallagher said in a team release before entering the mandatory recovery program. "I promise you all here and now, I will do whatever it takes to make this right."

GMS Racing, the owner of Gallagher's No. 23 car, has announced he will return behind the wheel at the Alsco 300 Xfinity race at Kentucky Speedway on July 13th.

Enjoy The Race!

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_{Photo credits: Nascarking CC BY-SA 4.0 via Wikimedia Commons}

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_{Author: @chops316
Editor: @liberty-minded}

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