The Experts Are Wrong. Japanese Two-Way Baseball Star Shohei Ohtani is a Better Fit for the National League

in #sports6 years ago (edited)

Japanese baseball star Shohei Ohtani has announced his intention to play for a team in the United States. Having recently been posted via international rules, he’s now meeting with teams and will sign with one soon. He’s already eliminated several teams from contention, apparently having a preference for U.S. West Coast and small market teams.

Ohtani.jpg
Ohtani, hitting and pitching. (1)

As a two-way threat who can pitch AND hit effectively, Ohtani is a unique talent and will be a great boon to any team that signs him. According to most experts, his two-way skill set would work best on an American League team.

I think the experts are wrong and here’s why.

The Designated Hitter

Major League Baseball in North America has two leagues: the American League and the National League. Aside from one team in Toronto, Canada, all other teams are in the United States. And there is one key difference between the two leagues. In the National League, pitchers also must hit in the games they are pitching. In the American League, pitchers do not hit, and are replaced in the batting lineup by a designated hitter (DH).

The DH is a hitter who does not play in the field, so his only job is to hit when his spot comes up in the batting order. Most teams have power hitting DHs who may be older or less athletic than the players using their gloves on defense. Because pitchers focus on their craft rather than hitting, they tend to be poor hitters. In the National League, many pitchers are the closest thing to an automatic out. Meanwhile, American teams stock their lineup with that one extra good hitter.

Japanese sensation Shohei Ohtani has informed North American teams (yes, he has that bargaining leverage) that he wants to both pitch and hit. He’s widely seen as a great pitcher; how well his hitting will translate to the U.S. Major Leagues is another question. But because signing Ohtani would be a rare opportunity for any team to improve at a low cost, many teams in both leagues are ready to create the space for him to be a two-way player.


Some highlights from Shohei Ohtani's two-way play.

Experts predict that Ohtani will land in the American League. This is because he could play as a designated hitter (DH) on some days when he does not pitch. If he were to sign with a National League team, then his only batting opportunities would come from playing field positions on non-pitching days, meaning that teams would be letting him sacrifice his body running around the outfield to catch and throw the ball. That represents more risk than making him a DH and teams are very risk-averse when it comes to their top pitchers.

On paper, playing for an American League team would seem to give him the most hitting opportunities in addition to the pitching opportunities that any team is happy to provide.

But the National League Offers Better Opportunities

But I think conventional wisdom is wrong here. Perhaps Ohtani will sign with an American League team such as the Seattle Mariners, Anaheim (Los Angeles) Angels, or Texas Rangers (all of which are still on his approved list at the time of this writing). But I think the National League clubs make at least as much sense, possibly more.

Ohtani could excel in the National League for three reasons. First, the game is moving towards two-way players anyway. Other teams have drafted two-way college and high school players and they are open to developing these players now on both sides of the ball, so Ohtani will not be unique for very long. Anthony Gose (Texas Rangers), Brett Eibner (Los Angeles Dodgers), Brendan McKay (Tampa Bay Rays) and Hunter Greene (Cincinnati Reds) already are being developed as two-way players in those teams’ minor league systems. Soon, many teams (American and National) will have a process at the big league level for handling players who can both pitch and hit effectively.

Second, we don’t know how good a hitter Ohtani will be in the U.S. major leagues. His pitching should translate quite well; he throws 100 miles per hour and gets hitters out. But while we have seen a number of notable Japanese pitchers, only a handful of hitters/position players from Japan and other Asian countries have had any success in North America (with a bow to the great Ichiro Suzuki, perhaps the greatest pure hitter of all time).

Ichiro CC.jpg
Ichiro The Great. (2)

Even American League teams will be reluctant to promise Ohtani any substantial playing time as a DH. At best, he will share time at that position with one or more other players on any American League team. And if his power does not translate well to the new league, his new team will be reluctant to keep him in that role or give him many at bats, since he will be far more valuable as a pitcher who takes time to develop his pitching skills.

Third, Major League Baseball is changing in another way: top teams are taking their pitchers out of the games earlier. Except for top starting pitchers, and on teams that have poor relief pitching, we will see starting pitchers pulled out of games often in the Fourth, Fifth, or Sixth Innings of games now, as last season’s playoff teams were doing.

Dodgers.jpg
Dodgers Manager Dave Roberts Pulls Pitchers Early. (3)

In the stat-controlled world of baseball decision-making, there is a growing movement to prevent pitchers from having to face the same hitters for a third time in any game, since statistically, batters often adjust and perform much better after they have had 1-2 at bats against a particular pitcher. With nine hitters on each team and nine innings to play, more pitchers are getting yanked in the middle of the games now. The Los Angeles Dodgers were very careful about this in last year’s playoffs. In the previous year’s World Series, we saw both Chicago and Cleveland make early use of their bullpens. The New York Mets just hired a new manager partly because he has an interest in handling his pitching staff in a similar way.

(And this leads us back to the first reason above, since if pitchers are being used less, wouldn't it be nice if some of them also could hit well, making good use of that roster spot?)

Player Substitutions Add a Different Dynamic

And for a bonus fourth reason, when it comes to player substitutions, the National League reigns supreme. To avoid the pitcher’s (often ‘automatic out’) spot in the batting order, teams often make double-switches when the pitcher comes out of the game. This opens up different roles for players who are good pinch hitters (being brought in for one at bat to replace the pitcher or another batter) and for players who are good on defense and can enter the game late to help prevent the other team from scoring runs.

National League double-switching also is perfect for someone else: Shohei Ohtani. As a pitcher, he can hit for himself in the lineup. When he comes out of a game in favor of a relief pitcher, rather than removing him from the game, the manager can play some tricks and move him into the field. In addition, he can be brought into non-pitching games as a pinch hitter, potentially picking up many more at bats in clutch situations. And he would be valuable there whether he hits for power or for average (either one would be welcomed).

Ohtani2.jpg
Shohei Ohtani Pitching. (4)

Contrast that with the American League where life would be a lot more boring. Ohtani would pitch every fifth or sixth day, he would play a few days as the DH, and if he does not hit for power, he would be benched in favor of a DH who can hit home runs. Where would his at bats come from at that point? Only in inter-league games in National League cities or in the odd pinch-hitting appearances.

I think Ohtani would have a lot more fun playing for a National League team. In the long run, he’d have the chance more consequential at bats there, especially if it turns out that he isn’t quite “The Japanese Babe Ruth” and can’t hit many home runs at the major league level. And consequential at bats, in addition to the pitching opportunity everyone is offering him, seems to be what he wants from this American experience. Should be fun to watch.

Sources:

Sports Day: https://sportsday.dallasnews.com/texas-rangers/rangers/2017/11/30/rangers-add-poor-mans-ohtani

MLB: http://m.mlb.com/news/article/262786764/shohei-ohtani-clearing-path-for-2-way-players/

CBS Sports: https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/shohei-ohtani-narrows-field-to-seven-teams-heres-how-he-fits-with-each-club/

Images:

(1) CBS Local, Boston
http://boston.cbslocal.com/

(2) Creative Commons via Flickr.com by Keith Allison

(3) Inside SoCal
http://www.insidesocal.com/dodgers/2016/06/01/dodgers-alex-wood-has-posterior-elbow-impingement/

(4) Bleeding Yankee Blue (sorry, Yanks fans, he isn't going to NY)
http://bleedingyankeeblue.blogspot.com/2017/11/thanksgiving-day-rumor-ohtani-is-on-way.html

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I honestly don't care where he plays. I want him to show up and dominate both aspects of the game. It would be one of the most interesting things to happen in MLB since Bo Jackson and Deion Sanders played football and baseball. If I'm not mistaken, Sanders played for both Atlanta teams in one 24 hour period.

You make a compelling baseball argument. From a fan's perspective, if he is great at both pitching and hitting, I hope he plays in the AL. If he does and is able to DH, I would buy a ticket when his team plays the White Sox (there will be plenty available). With the DH spot, you have a far greater chance of him playing on the day you attend.

If he really is a "Unicorn", MLB needs him on TV as much as possible.

But the odds of him continuing to excel in both aspects in the MLB are not good. In Japan he only pitches once per week so he has plenty of tie to practice both skills. In the MLB he may need to focus on pitching more leaving less time to hone his batting skills.

It is so much fun to dream about though. For now he is babe Ruth.

By the way, I think Ichiro is the greatest hitter I have ever seen. I have never seen anyone else get a hit off of a pitch that bounced before the plate. And I saw him do it twice!

For sure. I hope he is that good. It would be wonderful for the game and for any team that gets him.

Vlad Guerrero hit a pitch on a bounce when he was on the Angels. Can check it out on YT.

LOL. I was just talking about that in chat! I had forgotten.

Given your Simpsons expertise, I think a few guys on the 1992 Springfield Nuclear Power Plant softball team also did too.

LOL!

Not Mattingly though. Wouldn't shave those sideburns!

Interesting situation... I agree that he might get bored in the American league as he probably isn't a good enough hitter to be a DH, so pitching in the National league will let him get in more plate appearances. Will be interesting to see where he signs.

Yes, I guess it's a slightly pessimistic view that he might not have the power to DH, but I think that's more likely. It will be great if he hits for power also.

a player has the skills of each skill!

@donkeypong love to see the baseball post from you i love this game but donot have ever played because we dont have that game in my country

If he can actually bat like they say. American League is perfect for him. The angels can pitch him and on his off days let him DH

Yes, I agree. Angels seem to be a good fit. Would have been nice to see him go somewhere more interesting, but power to them and I look forward to watching the show next year. :)

As a baseball player that pitches and plays most positions in the field, including catcher, I can relate a bit. Most players are gamers and want to be involved as much as possible. They love the game and the bench is the last place they'd want to be, as long as they're qualified to remain in the game.

As for this unique player, I think playing the field in the NL would be a horrible idea because it will prevent him from getting full rest between starts. Even as a professional, playing a full game, after a long starting pitching performance and potential traveling across time zones, is tough on the body to recover in time. It could also increase injury, not just from being in the field, but from the extra stress on their arm making laser throws from the warning track at full velocity to try to gun down players. After 100 pitches in prior days, no matter how conditioned you are, that's not a wise thing to do. When I pitch, I'm fine to stay in the game, or come in from the field in relief, but once the games(s) are over for the day, my arm and legs are at 70% at best for a few days. In a MLB setting, not being at 90+% defensive performance is going to hurt the team, as much as a potential (developing/unproven vs MLB pitching) bat he may have. It may also wear down their pitching over the season too. It's a long season and his stats have been very limited to prove such durability. As he gets older, it'll get harder.

Sure, Shohei is young and wants to prove himself as the next Babe Ruth, but in reality, it could be a disaster if he tears something in his legs putting the brakes on a ball in the gap to get the throw off.

Just my two cents. For longevity and overall health, stick to the safer league, the AL -- and let the professional DH do their job. Maybe plug in as DH occasionally on matchups. If they get an interleague start as an AL pitcher, then they can show off their bat a few times a year for the fans, if they're not DH'ing much.

That's definitely the safer choice, especially for a top pitcher. At some point, if two-way players apparently are coming in the future, all teams (AL and NL) will need to find some ways to integrate them and get them some at bats.

Or they could always put him at catcher (kidding).

If they catch, he should throw nasty 85 MPH breaking balls to 2B/3B to deke the runners. They'd peek to think it was going wide and ease up or run through the bag, just enough to make a YouTube highlight reel or SportCenter's Top 10.

Ironically, a lot of closers are converted catchers since they have cannons for arms and tree trunks for legs. If there's a backup on the roster or their bats are sub-par, the coaching staff will often give them a shot to be a closer. Some examples: Troy Percival, Jason Motte (I played against him when he caught and his arm was legendary), Carlos Marmol, and Kenley Jansen.

For sure. And you can spot the former pitchers who end up in RF, since they have cannons also. Kind of like how receivers who can't hold onto a football end up as cornerbacks.

I'm playing baseball regularly
like baseball.

Living in L.A. i just have to throw it in that he comes this way....=)

That very well could happen.

I don't know about anyone else, but I'd like to see this guy in some red pinstripes. The Phillies are an up and coming team with young talent and could use someone like him

The Phillies' turn-around has been impressive. That team is probably only a year or two away from putting a very good team on the field.

Congratulations Shohei Ohtani, a Japanese baseball player who has incredible talent, thanks for for the information @donkeypong

That's great story of Shohei Ohtani. He is a talented and skillful for baseball game. I have been heard about him before. I'm really baseball fan.
Thank you for giving important info @donkeypong.

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