Law of Large Numbers-Bigger Sample Size Bails Me Out in Quest RewardssteemCreated with Sketch.

in #spt5 years ago

Many people talk on here about being delighted about getting a gold on a daily quest. And you should be thrilled because a base rate of 50X rarity makes it a while for just about anyone to get a gold-especially without using any potions, which is what I have been forced to do since guild contributions began.

Getting a nice haul even after reaching the Champion III level after finishing a daily quest even after receiving 16 cards for completing that quest. I was pumped to get the Naga Fire Wizard in gold foil which is a great card in value, DEC burn value, and rarity all the way across the board. Also being lucky enough to land the Legendary Lord of the Seas was a very pleasant surprise as well.

In my bigger account this has actually convinced me to pick up the potion for the additional five reward cards. Some of these reward cards are getting in the upwards of 80% of their max print total, so when they hit their total they are done. That includes the burned and "the whole enchilada" of cards used and of course burned during the time of collecting them.

Perhaps the most ingenious model of this game may not even be the game itself. The game The Splinterlands is fun as can be, don't me wrong there, especially with multiple rule sets it unlocks even more value across the whole spectrum of all cards that can be used at any given time. But the real genius in the game itself is the masterful command of rarity, created scarcity, tokenizing that rarity through DEC, creating additional rewards through Guilds to make that DEC even more scarce, creating an environment that in all actuality can custom fit itself to the quantity of players of the game through this scarcity model. Pure economic genius in my opinion. The production numbers really don't matter over time as people decide the relative value of the given card to them allowing them to keep the card or burn it, making it slightly more rare, and attaining the DEC value which of course has multiple uses to the holder of any given card at any time.

This to me brings me back to "The Law of Large Numbers," that the greater the sample size over time will eventually lead to more predictable, reliable data of a given set of possible results over more rational and predictable market settings. It's the bedrock of many financial institutions including insurance companies that predict claims payouts leading to actuarial numbers. So the more you play, the more develop a larger sample size, the more likely you are to achieve more rare results, like what I was fortunate enough to pick up today in the gold rare and legendary regular cards. With potions out there as well that of course cuts into the original formula so the gold foils and legendary cards become more likely to be pulled over that same time. Which leads us again to another reality--get DEC, and lots of it if you can.

Thanks for the read, feel free to comment whether you agree or disagree with anything in here. Best of luck to you on the Steem Based Economy in all that you are doing!

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