Predictions of Steem Prices, Opportunities in Steem Blockchain | Prediksi Masa Depan Harga Steem (Bilingual)

blogiwank (56)in #steem • 6 years ago (edited)

Steem prices fall and people panic. I do not understand why we should be panic. Is not the world economy is lethargic? The oil-rich countries in Middle East are looking for other income outside of oil. The United States is struggling to improve its domestic economy and The Fed, US central bank, raised interest rate. The Fed also promised to raise interest rate again this year and I do not be surprised if global economy worsens later. CNBC wrote Here's how the Fed rate hike will affect your finances.

Former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan said US economy is falling. He said in CNBC:

Greenspan says the economy is moving from stagnation into "stagflation," a damaging environment when inflation picks up and growth wanes. "I do not see how we get out of it," without entitlement reform, Greenspan said.

Back to Steem. Actually it is not just Bitcoin and Steem prices are down, but almost all crypto currency is , as shown in CoinCheckup. Cryptocurrency transactions wane. This could be due to the impact of the world economy.

_{Image 1. Cryptocurrency price at 13 June 2018 in CoinCheckup}

It is said that Coinrail was hacked and US$ 40 million is lost. Coinrail is a minor cryptocurrency exchange in South Korea that manages a small portion of investor funds in the country. Most traders transact on large sites like Bithumb, UPbit, and Korbit. (See: Cryptocurrency Market Falls $ 25 Billion 6% Billion: 6% Factors and Trends, 11 June 2018)

Many analysts blame Coinrail's case. But, I think they are just looking for a scapegoat. Cryptocurrency hacking case has happened several times. And, Coinrail is just a small exchange site. It will not have a big impact on world cryptocurrency trading.

Steem Stable Trading Volume

So how should we see this? I think the rise or fall of Steem or Bitcoin prices is common market fluctuation. Many economists have warned that the cryptocurrency market is a volatile, turbulent market. One reason is that there is no official authority to protect the price. When dollar price falls, The Fed will intervene to keep dollar price steady. This is not the case with cryptocurrency. So, if the price of Bitcoin drops or suddenly rises rapidly, it is because of it's feature.

But, did you know that Steem's trading volume is the most stable among other cryptocurrencies. I quote one analysis: Steemit (STEEM): The Only Asset Climbing as Markets Turn to Red, April 26, 2018:

What is curious, is that STEEM trading volumes picked up to levels not seen since January. In terms of BTC prices, STEEM has been relatively stable, and only the dollar has responded. The current climb in STEEM is the result of a sharper uptick in BTC prices, which translates into a jump above $ 4.

So, could we trust cryptocurrency? IMHO, tradable tokens, such as Bitcoin, are vulnerable to money market turmoil. But, it is not for token that has a certain asset. That is, there is a business that sustains that token value.

Steem is such the token. If you read Steem Roadmap 2017, you can not find a discussion about the target of Steem or SBD trading. There is how Steem blockchain to be developed, for example with Steem Media Token (SMT). That is, Steem, Inc. is more focused on the development of blockchain based business than cryptocurrency trading.

In this case, Steem is different from most cryptocurrencies. I see that Steem is on the right track as a business, not just relying on cryptocurrency trading.

I quote Coincape (16 May 2018) opinion:

In order for cryptocurrencies to be really mainstream, it is very necessary that the cryptocurrencies are part of the world economy and are traded for real-world services. In other words, instead of acquiring cryptocurrencies through "buy" they should be earned in exchange for services. And then there should be an infrastructure that allows to 'spend' cryptocurrencies in exchange for daily items of need.

In the article, CoinGape lists some blockchain projects that "actually you can earn considerable cryptocurrencies". Steemit is on the first list and D.Tube number 3. D.Tube actually includes Steem, because it works on the top of Steem blockchain. So, 2 of 5 projects are from Steem. Interesting right?

Another positive outlook is from Dr. Samuel Douglas, a lecturer at the University of Newcastle. He argues that Steem: Social media platform mirrors real-world economics and inequality:

Plenty of other companies are on a broadly similar cryptocurrency-powered bandwagon: empowr, sapien, sphere and minds, to name a few. Whether this approach is economically sustainable enough to transform the social media landscape remains to be seen. ** And, if it does, there are no guarantees on which network will come out on top, though I think Steemit is one of the least corrupt attempts so far. ** (bold by me)

Prediction

What are other considerations? I tend to see a business project as a long-term project. If a project stands one year and dissolved, it is not business, but speculation. Steem is designed as a long-term business project. Until now, after two more years of running, Steemit is still in beta stage, meaning it will still change here and there.

Well, when looking at the future, it means we need to see the projection. CoinCheckup predicts that Steem prices will rise up to US$ 14. This is if we calculated only physical currency plus accounts in bank that can be exchanged with the physical currency (M0).

_{Image 2. Steem Price Prediction in CoinCheckup}

When other things are added, Steem value could reach US$ 193.

_{Image 3. Steem Price Prediction in CoinCheckup}

Well, should you need to worry about Steem's price? Of course it is necessary and it shows you care about this platform.

Prediksi Masa Depan Harga Steem, Peluang Steem Blockchain

Harga Steem jatuh dan orang-orang panik. Saya tidak paham mengapa harus panik. Bukankah ekonomi dunia memang sedang lesu? Negara-negara kaya minyak di Timur Tengah pontang panting mencari sumber pendapatan di luar minyak. Amerika Serikat berjuang untuk memperbaiki ekonomi dalam negerinya dan The Fed, bank sentral Amerika, menaikkan suku bunganya. The Fed juga berjanji akan menaikkan suku bunga lagi tahun ini dan jangan heran bila nanti ekonomi global makin terpuruk.

Mantan ketua Federal Reserve (The Fed), Alan Greenspan, menyatakan bahwa ekonomi Amerika sedang turun. Seperti dipaparkan CNBC:

Greenspan said the economy is moving from stagnation into “stagflation,” a damaging environment when inflation picks up and growth wanes. “I don’t see how we get out of it,” without entitlement reform, Greenspan said.

Kembali ke Steem. Sebetulnya bukan hanya harga Bitcoin dan Steem yang turun, tapi hampir semua mata uang kripto turun, seperti ditunjukkan dalam data di CoinCheckup. Artinya, memang transaksi cryptocurrency memang sedang lesu. Ini bisa jadi karena imbas dari perekonomian dunia.

_{Image 1. Cryptocurrency price at 13 June 2018 in CoinCheckup}

Konon ini gara-gara Coinrail diretas sehingga US$ 40 juta hilang. Coinrail adalah situs penukaran cryptocurrency minor di Korea Selatan yang mengelola porsi kecil dana investor di negeri itu. Kebanyakan pedagang bertransaksi di situs besar seperti Bithumb, UPbit, dan Korbit. (See: Cryptocurrency Market Falls $25 Billion Overnight as Bitcoin Drops 6%: Factors and Trends, 11 June 2018)

Banyak analis menyalahkan kasus Coinrail. Tapi, saya pikir ini cuma mencari kambing hitam saja. Kasus peretasan cryptocurrency sudah beberapa kali terjadi. Dan, Coinrail hanya sebuah situs pertukaran kecil. Dia tak akan berpengaruh besar terhadap perdagangan dunia.

Volume Perdagangan Steem Stabil

Lantas, bagaimanakah kita melihat keadaan ini? Saya kira naik-turunnya harga Steem atau Bitcoin adalah gejolak pasar biasa. Banyak ekonom yang sudah memperingatkan bahwa pasar cryptocurrency adalah pasar yang volatile, penuh gejolak. Salah satu alasannya adalah karena tak ada otoritas resmi yang melindungi harganya. Bila harga dolar jatuh, The Fed akan turun tangan untuk membuat harga dolar kembali stabil. Hal ini tidak terjadi pada cryptocurrency. Jadi, kalau harga Bitcoin anjlok atau tiba-tiba naik pesat, ya, biasa saja.

Tapi, tahukah kamu bahwa volume perdagangan Steem adalah yang paling stabil di antara cryptocurrency lain. Saya kutipkan satu analisa: Steemit (STEEM): The Only Asset Climbing as Markets Turn to Red, 26 April 2018:

What is curious, is that STEEM trading volumes picked up to levels not seen since January. In terms of BTC prices, STEEM has been relatively stable, and only the dollar price has responded. The current climb in STEEM is the result of a sharper uptick in BTC prices, which translated into a jump above $4.

Lantas, apakah tak ada pegangan terhadap cryptocurrency? Saya berpendapat bahwa untuk token yang semata diperdagangnya, seperti Bitcoin, memang rawan terhadap gejolak pasar uang. Tapi, berbeda halnya dengan token yang memiliki aset tertentu. Artinya, ada bisnis yang menopang nilai token tersebut.

Steem adalah token semacam itu. Kalau kau baca di Steem Roadmap 2017, maka kau tak menemukan pembahasan soal target perdagangan Steem atau SBD. Yang ada adalah bagaimana Steem blockchain hendak dikembangkan, misalnya dengan Steem Media Token (SMT). Artinya, Steem, Inc lebih berfokus pada pengembangan bisnis berbasis blockchain daripada perdagangan cryptocurrency.

Dalam hal ini, Steem berbeda dari kebanyak cryptocurrency. Saya melihat bahwa Steem sudah berada di jalur yang benar sebagai bisnis, yang tak semata bersandar pada perdagangan cryptocurrency.

Saya setuju dengan pendapat CoinGape (16 May 2018) berikut ini:

In order for cryptocurrencies to be really mainstream, it is very necessary that cryptocurrencies are part of the daily economy and are traded for real-world services. In other words, instead of acquiring cryptocurrencies through “buy” they should be earned in exchange for services. And then there should be an infrastructure that allows to ‘spend’ cryptocurrencies in exchange for daily items of need.

Di artikel tersebut, CoinGape mendaftar beberapa projek blockchain yang "actually you can earn considerable cryptocurrencies". Steemit berada di daftar pertama dan D.Tube nomor 3. D.Tube sebetulnya termasuk Steem, karena bekerja di atas Steem blockchain. Jadi, 2 dari 5 daftar projek itu adalah dari Steem. Menarik, bukan?

Pandangan positif lain adalah dari Dr Samuel Douglas, pengajar di University of Newcastle. Dia berpendapat bahwa Steem: Social media platform mirrors real-world economics and inequality:

Plenty of other companies are on a broadly similar cryptocurrency-powered bandwagon: empowr, sapien, sphere and minds, to name a few. Whether this approach is economically sustainable enough to transform the social media landscape remains to be seen. And, if it does, there are no guarantees on which network will come out on top, though I think Steemit is one of the least corrupt attempts so far. (bold by me)

Prediksi

Apa faktor pertimbangan lain? Saya cenderung melihat sebuah projek bisnis sebagai projek jangka panjang. Kalau sebuah projek berdiri satu tahun lalu bubar, itu bukan bisnis namanya, tapi spekulasi. Steem dirancang sebagai sebuah projek bisnis jangka panjang. Hingga saat ini, setelah dua tahun lebih berjalan, Steemit bahkan baru dalam tahap beta, artinya masih akan berubah di sana-sini.

Nah, bila melihat masa depan, berarti kita perlu melihat proyeksinya. CoinCheckup memprediksi bahwa harga Steem akan naik sampai US$ 14. Ini jika yang dihitung hanya mata uang fisik ditambah akun di bank sentrak yang dapat dipertukarkan dengan mata uang fisik (M0).

_{Image 2. Steem Price Prediction in CoinCheckup}

Bila hal-hal lain ditambahkan, nilainya bisa mencapai US$ 193.

_{Image 3. Steem Price Prediction in CoinCheckup}

Nah, perlukah kamu khawatir terhadap harga Steem? Tentu perlu dan itu menunjukkan kamu peduli pada platform ini.

#blogiwankwriting #ksijakarta #jakarta #indonesia #steemitbudaya #steem #steemit #budaya #writing #economy @bitcoin #analyse #cryptocurrency

Coin		Price (USD)	📈 24h	📉 7d
BTC	Bitcoin	6624.160$	2.33%	-13.52%
SBD	Steem Dollars	1.363$	1.33%	-19.99%
SMT	SmartMesh	0.035$	1.93%	-29.95%
STEEM	Steem	1.738$	2.99%	-24.65%

Predictions of Steem Prices, Opportunities in Steem Blockchain | Prediksi Masa Depan Harga Steem (Bilingual)

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